Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

by **billg315** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:18 pm

Irish wrote:

This is what heehaw references above. This would be a scenario where the storm matures/intensifies late. Coastal areas get a couple hours of heavy snow at the end adding to totals, but the area in general does not get in on the heavier amounts. This is one of about 3 or 4 outcomes here that is definitely not off the table.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:20 pm

Model mayhem. As someone said earlier, this is an incredibly dynamic storm. No single run is going to be the true outcome. The 12z Euro showing a different setup than a lot of the shorter-range guidance that's now coming into range. Who will get it right?

Speaking of, when do we start focusing on the short-range models? We are basically inside of 12 hours now.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:23 pm

Irish wrote:

Unless the meso models follow suit, I’m not concerned. Euro is a southern outlier. Anyway now’s the time to watch real time meso maps to track the storm.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:26 pm

Just so everyone can breathe a little easier, I still haven't taken my snow blower out from my basement. I can hear it down there now, trying to seduce me. 'Come on DayBlazer, take me out, I won't jinx anything. Don't be silly.'

I will remain strong until nightfall before making my decision. So I'm doing my part.

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:30 pm

Regarding the euro: Look at 00z vs 12z at 300mb. The northern branch of the dual jet structure is much weaker. This is why the entire system is weaker overall, and totals are down. This is a huge change and has major implications if true.
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by **WeatherBob** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:34 pm

Not for nothing but the HRRR has been fairly consistent over the last 36 to 48 hrs, for whatever it’s worth. Isn’t this the preferred short range model? I have seen it terrible in some events but I really don’t follow its accuracy in the short range.

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:35 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Just so everyone can breathe a little easier, I still haven't taken my snow blower out from my basement. I can hear it down there now, trying to seduce me. 'Come on DayBlazer, take me out, I won't jinx anything. Don't be silly.'

I will remain strong until nightfall before making my decision. So I'm doing my part.

Your snow blower calls you DayBlazer?! Weird, you'd think it'd call you by your real name or something that he hears the wife call you like, $%$×$% or ^"$^%##^.

by **docstox12** Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:58 pm

40 degrees, high clouds increasing and calm winds.

by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:59 pm

Irish wrote:Your snow blower calls you DayBlazer?! Weird, you'd think it'd call you by your real name or something that he hears the wife call you like, $%$×$% or ^"$^%##^.

LOL. I answer to many names in my household, some of which cannot be repeated here. We are all about our family values here on this forum, right?

by **dkodgis** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:22 pm

I will be grateful for what snow I get. NYC's last big storm was January 2022 if you want to call what they got, a few inches, a storm. Boston had so much snow in other years they bought trucks that melt the snow to discharge it into the river. They had snow to hell and back in a couple of years. Now, they have not had 10 inches or more in over two years.

If we get 10 inches up here, that will make it about 20 inches so far for the season. It will put us just under half. Half is better than none and I was just looking at a photo on my phone from March 2022 when we had a good snow up here. So a third storm might get us closer to the 55 inches or so some call "normal" around these parts. Back at the beginning of the 2000s I thought it was normal to get 77 inches to 115 inches. Now I beg for the littlest bit. I am a snowaholic and not yet in recovery like CP.

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:30 pm

Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:30 pm

Moved this over from the Snow Map thread

phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EPS 12Z followed suit with the Op. Later development which creates a weaker storm. It's not bad but it's not how we are going to get the big dog. IMO it's a viable solution just as is a closed off ULL over Delmarva which could hammer the area. It's just going to depend on the phase timing to determine when the ULL closes off.

The point is as most are aware nothing is set in stone with this solution so I'd throttle down expectations if they are running hot.

Decent 3-6 area wide on this model

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:32 pm

Well scott so much for your note not to comment in the snow map section lol. Me no likey the Euro, what are the chances this happens as right now it is a outlier and am really nervous for 18z and 00z SR runs, IMO even 12z today and 18z LR won't mean a whole lot, am I wrong? All the SR show a huge storm but I know we gotta keep the Euro run on the table but if you had to weight it against the others what do you think?

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:33 pm

Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed. affraid

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by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:34 pm

by **amugs** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

GOSH DARN DR NO EURO STRIKES AGAIN!!!

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

10/4 on that, similar to all the other 12z runs, Euro a outlier.

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

Wow huge miss to the north.

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed.

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed.

⁷w

Wow! Likely won't happen up to those numbers but it seems like the goal posts are setting up and that CNJ/LI are in great position for this one.

by **sroc4** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed.

Keep in mind HRRR's wheel house is normally inside 18hr so it is at the end of its clear vision FWIW

by **jmanley32** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed.

Ha Irish you see more than NYC area lol, I am still very happy with that but will it really be that far south?

by **heehaw453** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:37 pm

18Z HRRR does hit much of the area hard. It has definitely narrowed the axis of precip too. Not really sure I buy the NW folks getting less precip, but yeah it could happen with later development. We all know how these finer details vacillate back/forth though.

by **billg315** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:42 pm

I'm sticking with my thoughts in my snow map for now. I think this HRRR is close in orientation, but the entire snowfield should get bumped a bit (20 miles?) north, with maybe an expansion of light totals just above that. And I'd cut the more extreme totals here down by a few inches. Still a major hit for most even if you do that.

by Koroptim Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:48 pm

What can go wrong will go wrong. Our new reality in winter

by **Irish** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?

Confirmed.

Ha Irish you see more than NYC area lol, I am still very happy with that but will it really be that far south?

That's the thing, I don't have a ton of faith that the northern area gets left out of the party. However, the main point I'm seeing is that whether things tick north or tick south, it always seems to include the most active area for CNJ. That area seems to have been in a safe zone for a clear 3-6 inch event with the possibility of doubling that if all goes right.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:56 pm

There's a new thread.

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