NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

+31
richb521
brownie
Carvin
silentwreck
dkodgis
NJBear
essexcountypete
amugs
tomsriversnowstorm
aiannone
SENJsnowman
jmanley32
nutleyblizzard
dsix85
docstox12
toople
Irish
Dunnzoo
Koroptim
phil155
Frank_Wx
MattyICE
billg315
frank 638
hyde345
SNOW MAN
Artechmetals
CPcantmeasuresnow
heehaw453
JT33
sroc4
35 posters

Page 13 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13

Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:18 pm

Irish wrote:February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Screen32

This is what heehaw references above. This would be a scenario where the storm matures/intensifies late. Coastal areas get a couple hours of heavy snow at the end adding to totals, but the area in general does not get in on the heavier amounts. This is one of about 3 or 4 outcomes here that is definitely not off the table.

billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Join date : 2015-01-24

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:20 pm

Model mayhem. As someone said earlier, this is an incredibly dynamic storm. No single run is going to be the true outcome. The 12z Euro showing a different setup than a lot of the shorter-range guidance that's now coming into range. Who will get it right?

Speaking of, when do we start focusing on the short-range models? We are basically inside of 12 hours now.


DAYBLAZER

Posts : 228
Join date : 2017-03-12

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:23 pm

Irish wrote:February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Screen32
Unless the meso models follow suit, I’m not concerned. Euro is a southern outlier. Anyway now’s the time to watch real time meso maps to track the storm.



nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1953
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Irish likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:26 pm

Just so everyone can breathe a little easier, I still haven't taken my snow blower out from my basement. I can hear it down there now, trying to seduce me. 'Come on DayBlazer, take me out, I won't jinx anything. Don't be silly.'

I will remain strong until nightfall before making my decision. So I'm doing my part.

DAYBLAZER
DAYBLAZER

Posts : 228
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Hopatcong, NJ Sussex County

sroc4, 2004blackwrx, kalleg, Angela0621, brownie, essexcountypete, heehaw453 and like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:30 pm

Regarding the euro: Look at 00z vs 12z at 300mb. The northern branch of the dual jet structure is much weaker. This is why the entire system is weaker overall, and totals are down. This is a huge change and has major implications if true.
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707814800-S2JuIYb0dEU

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707814800-ThCiueKLMIE



_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8335
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by WeatherBob Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:34 pm

Not for nothing but the HRRR has been fairly consistent over the last 36 to 48 hrs, for whatever it’s worth. Isn’t this the preferred short range model? I have seen it terrible in some events but I really don’t follow its accuracy in the short range.
WeatherBob
WeatherBob
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 683
Reputation : 83
Join date : 2013-12-13
Location : Caldwell, NJ - NW Essex County - Altitude 500 FT

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:35 pm

DAYBLAZER wrote:Just so everyone can breathe a little easier, I still haven't taken my snow blower out from my basement. I can hear it down there now, trying to seduce me. 'Come on DayBlazer, take me out, I won't jinx anything. Don't be silly.'

I will remain strong until nightfall before making my decision. So I'm doing my part.

Your snow blower calls you DayBlazer?!  Weird, you'd think it'd call you by your real name or something that he hears the wife call you like, $%$×$% or ^"$^%##^.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

sroc4, docstox12, kalleg, brownie, jmanley32 and billg315 like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:58 pm

40 degrees, high clouds increasing and calm winds.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8514
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by DAYBLAZER Mon Feb 12, 2024 1:59 pm

Irish wrote:Your snow blower calls you DayBlazer?!  Weird, you'd think it'd call you by your real name or something that he hears the wife call you like, $%$×$% or ^"$^%##^.

LOL. I answer to many names in my household, some of which cannot be repeated here. We are all about our family values here on this forum, right?
DAYBLAZER
DAYBLAZER

Posts : 228
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2017-03-12
Location : Hopatcong, NJ Sussex County

kalleg, weatherwatchermom and Irish like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by dkodgis Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:22 pm

I will be grateful for what snow I get. NYC's last big storm was January 2022 if you want to call what they got, a few inches, a storm. Boston had so much snow in other years they bought trucks that melt the snow to discharge it into the river. They had snow to hell and back in a couple of years. Now, they have not had 10 inches or more in over two years.

If we get 10 inches up here, that will make it about 20 inches so far for the season. It will put us just under half. Half is better than none and I was just looking at a photo on my phone from March 2022 when we had a good snow up here. So a third storm might get us closer to the 55 inches or so some call "normal" around these parts. Back at the beginning of the 2000s I thought it was normal to get 77 inches to 115 inches. Now I beg for the littlest bit. I am a snowaholic and not yet in recovery like CP.
dkodgis
dkodgis
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2519
Reputation : 98
Join date : 2013-12-29

docstox12, 2004blackwrx, brownie and silentwreck like this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:30 pm

Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj. Can anyone confirm?
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:30 pm

Moved this over from the Snow Map thread

phil155 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:EPS 12Z followed suit with the Op. Later development which creates a weaker storm. It's not bad but it's not how we are going to get the big dog. IMO it's a viable solution just as is a closed off ULL over Delmarva which could hammer the area. It's just going to depend on the phase timing to determine when the ULL closes off.

The point is as most are aware nothing is set in stone with this solution so I'd throttle down expectations if they are running hot.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Eps100





Decent 3-6 area wide on this model

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8335
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:32 pm

Well scott so much for your note not to comment in the snow map section lol. Me no likey the Euro, what are the chances this happens as right now it is a outlier and am really nervous for 18z and 00z SR runs, IMO even 12z today and 18z LR won't mean a whole lot, am I wrong? All the SR show a huge storm but I know we gotta keep the Euro run on the table but if you had to weight it against the others what do you think?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:33 pm

Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed. affraid


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8335
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:34 pm

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Screen33
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by amugs Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

GOSH DARN DR NO EURO STRIKES AGAIN!!!


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15093
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  
10/4 on that, similar to all the other 12z runs, Euro a outlier.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:35 pm

Wow huge miss to the north.
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed.   affraid


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU

2004blackwrx
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 576
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-14
Location : Wappinger NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed.   affraid


⁷wFebruary 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU
Wow!  Likely won't happen up to those numbers but it seems like the goal posts are setting up and that CNJ/LI are in great position for this one.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

SENJsnowman likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed.   affraid


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU


Keep in mind HRRR's wheel house is normally inside 18hr so it is at the end of its clear vision FWIW

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8335
Reputation : 301
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by jmanley32 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:36 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed.   affraid


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU
Ha Irish you see more than NYC area lol, I am still very happy with that but will it really be that far south?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20519
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:37 pm

18Z HRRR does hit much of the area hard. It has definitely narrowed the axis of precip too. Not really sure I buy the NW folks getting less precip, but yeah it could happen with later development. We all know how these finer details vacillate back/forth though.

heehaw453
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3906
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA Elevation 600' ASL

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:42 pm

I'm sticking with my thoughts in my snow map for now. I think this HRRR is close in orientation, but the entire snowfield should get bumped a bit (20 miles?) north, with maybe an expansion of light totals just above that. And I'd cut the more extreme totals here down by a few inches. Still a major hit for most even if you do that.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4475
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

heehaw453 likes this post

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Koroptim Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:48 pm

What can go wrong will go wrong. Our new reality in winter

Koroptim

Posts : 29
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-16

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:Heard that the latest HRR crushes metro area and cnj.  Can anyone confirm?  

Confirmed.   affraid


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 1707854400-gtarZJgmakU
Ha Irish you see more than NYC area lol, I am still very happy with that but will it really be that far south?
That's the thing, I don't have a ton of faith that the northern area gets left out of the party. However, the main point I'm seeing is that whether things tick north or tick south, it always seems to include the most active area for CNJ.  That area seems to have been in a safe zone for a clear 3-6 inch event with the possibility of doubling that if all goes right.
Irish
Irish
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 788
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2019-01-16
Age : 45
Location : Old Bridge, NJ

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 2:56 pm

There's a new thread.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21305
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 32
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 13 Empty Re: February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 13 of 13 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum