February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

12z NAM (current)


6z NAM (previous)

billg315 wrote:12z NAM (current)


6z NAM (previous)

Definitely slid north from those maps. Took me from a foot to 7-8.  Should be in the goods either way. I hope for a solution that works best for all and not one shafting a good chunk.

billg315 wrote:12z NAM (current)


6z NAM (previous)

Like a yoyo.

Run to run these models will drive everyone to insanity.

Irish wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.

Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.

This map was written well before any 12z or any of the 6z euro came out./ But I sure as shit wont be waffling over every run. We will see where we stand by tonight. A shift down is certainly possible.

I was close to making a 1st call this morning as well, but decided to hold off until the 12z runs came in today as my level of confidence was just not there. Despite my confidence level I will try to have a 1st call out before 2pm. The pattern, in general, does support significant snow. It is the temperatures and ability to quickly cool the columns is where I have some hesitation which may impact the rate of accumulation.

sroc4 wrote:

Irish wrote:

docstox12 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.

Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.

This map was written well before any 12z or any of the 6z euro came out./  But I sure as shit wont be waffling over every run.  We will see where we stand by tonight.  A shift down is certainly possible.  

Hell no!  You'll have a dozen 1st call snow maps!

Will the storm bring in colder temps? I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing. I'm at the x.

Mesos are showing a good storm.  It still depends on the ULL close off before coast IMO. That gets most folks with seeing the goods. I would say it's more likely than not that happens.

12Z WRF

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

Ive looked at soundings on multiple hi res models, and when the main precip is overhead the entire column except the surface, 33-35 at most for most of the area is thumping.  If it does it will accumulate very very quickly.  I think 10-12" is still within reach for isolated areas under the CCB but by no means a lock.

Hi Res rgem holds serve. Cut maybe an inch or two off the top

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

Thta's the 6Z NAM, on the 12Z (currrent) you're more on the border of the heavy stuff. It has you at 8, not to say that's right either, who knows it's one model and one run.

The fact that we’re worrying about some (Euro/EPS) hinting southern slider and others hinting slight north numbs, while others still hold serve means we’re likely to do just fine across most of the board here. Would be the cherry on top to see the Euro at 12 and 0z halt the southern trend and tick back slightly.

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

Current NAM

https://servimg.com/view/19390331/410#

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

Thta's the 6Z NAM, on the 12Z (currrent) you're more on the border of the heavy stuff. It has you at 8, not to say that's right either, who knows it's one model and one run.

CP, based on this model mayhem, I am expecting anywhere from 2 to 14 here.
All joking aside, I think a lot of us in our Board area will get some good snow and anything we get stays around for a happy snowpack week with a couple of refresher Clippers on the horizon.

Suffice to say it probably is a safe bet CNJ near me could be 4-6 with the possibility of higher totals. I’d be good with that.

GFS just went Godzilla

sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  

Wow Scott great map there. No one can complain, though they will, about this massive drastic shift from 48-72  hours ago on this storm. 
This is tue biggest storm for NYC metro since Jan 31-3 2021!!!
A 980ish LP off NJ Coast and to the BM is a beast and will have d6namic surprises that models will struggle with. 
Wobbles by each run.....smooth it out and take a middle axis rule of thumb from Dr. Jon Nese who said this to my son at PSU Metrology 101.
Best bet.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

GFS went nuclear. If it had closed off an hour earlier it would have global thermonuclear.

Irish wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

essexcountypete wrote:

Irish wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

  come on, really?!  That was your first thought?!  Hysterical!  You would've thought I made that map.

HOLY CRAP 2-3" rates per hour at Rush Hour!! This storm is reminding me of teh GREAT DYNAMIC storms of teh past - October 2011, Xmas 2002. Dynamics will cause havoc amongst models!

Should be a fun commute from Dutchess county to my training in Queens tomorrow.

Just waiting for my call for school cancelation tomorrow.

GEFS hold with its Op

Irish wrote:

essexcountypete wrote:

Irish wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

  come on, really?!  That was your first thought?!  Hysterical!  You would've thought I made that map.

Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?

(just don't count on it staying there )