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February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential

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Post by billg315 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:18 am

12z NAM (current)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2943

6z NAM (previous)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2944

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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:29 am

billg315 wrote:12z NAM (current)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2943

6z NAM (previous)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2944
Definitely slid north from those maps. Took me from a foot to 7-8.  Should be in the goods either way. I hope for a solution that works best for all and not one shafting a good chunk.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:34 am

billg315 wrote:12z NAM (current)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2943

6z NAM (previous)
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2944

Like a yoyo.

Run to run these models will drive everyone to insanity.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:35 am

Irish wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Snow_m10

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.
Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.

This map was written well before any 12z or any of the 6z euro came out./ But I sure as shit wont be waffling over every run. We will see where we stand by tonight. A shift down is certainly possible.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:48 am

I was close to making a 1st call this morning as well, but decided to hold off until the 12z runs came in today as my level of confidence was just not there. Despite my confidence level I will try to have a 1st call out before 2pm. The pattern, in general, does support significant snow. It is the temperatures and ability to quickly cool the columns is where I have some hesitation which may impact the rate of accumulation.

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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:55 am

sroc4 wrote:
Irish wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Snow_m10

Great map Doc!
Curious ,though, about the latest big southern shifts in the models.My area in the LHV you have 12 to 18 would be getting 6 to 8 or less with that shift.You don't seem to be buying that in your map.
Yeah, if the shift continues south, there might need to be a revisit on the 1st call.

This map was written well before any 12z or any of the 6z euro came out./  But I sure as shit wont be waffling over every run.  We will see where we stand by tonight.  A shift down is certainly possible.  
Hell no!  You'll have a dozen 1st call snow maps!
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Post by NJBear Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:59 am

Will the storm bring in colder temps? I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing. I'm at the x.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2910

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:00 am

Mesos are showing a good storm.  It still depends on the ULL close off before coast IMO. That gets most folks with seeing the goods. I would say it's more likely than not that happens.

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February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Wrf10

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:06 am

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2910


Ive looked at soundings on multiple hi res models, and when the main precip is overhead the entire column except the surface, 33-35 at most for most of the area is thumping.  If it does it will accumulate very very quickly.  I think 10-12" is still within reach for isolated areas under the CCB but by no means a lock.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:08 am

Hi Res rgem holds serve. Cut maybe an inch or two off the top

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 1707886800-al3RhlkmNi0
February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 1707886800-BuNgPkl7T8g

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:13 am

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2910


Thta's the 6Z NAM, on the 12Z (currrent) you're more on the border of the heavy stuff. It has you at 8, not to say that's right either, who knows it's one model and one run.
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Post by MattyICE Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:14 am

The fact that we’re worrying about some (Euro/EPS) hinting southern slider and others hinting slight north numbs, while others still hold serve means we’re likely to do just fine across most of the board here. Would be the cherry on top to see the Euro at 12 and 0z halt the southern trend and tick back slightly.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:16 am

NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2910


Current NAM

https://servimg.com/view/19390331/410#
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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:17 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NJBear wrote:Will the storm bring in colder temps?  I can't see 10 inches with temps above freezing.  I'm at the x.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_2910


Thta's the 6Z NAM, on the 12Z (currrent) you're more on the border of the heavy stuff. It has you at 8, not to say that's right either, who knows it's one model and one run.

CP, based on this model mayhem, I am expecting anywhere from 2 to 14 here.
All joking aside, I think a lot of us in our Board area will get some good snow and anything we get stays around for a happy snowpack week with a couple of refresher Clippers on the horizon.
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Post by richb521 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:28 am

Suffice to say it probably is a safe bet CNJ near me could be 4-6 with the possibility of higher totals. I’d be good with that.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:42 am

GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029

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Post by amugs Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:47 am

sroc4 wrote:I will also make a separate thread for Snow maps only for people to post a map if they wish to make one.  


February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Snow_m10
Wow Scott great map there. No one can complain, though they will, about this massive drastic shift from 48-72  hours ago on this storm. 
This is tue biggest storm for NYC metro since Jan 31-3 2021!!!
A 980ish LP off NJ Coast and to the BM is a beast and will have d6namic surprises that models will struggle with. 
Wobbles by each run.....smooth it out and take a middle axis rule of thumb from Dr. Jon Nese who said this to my son at PSU Metrology 101.
Best bet.

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:53 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029

🤣😂
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:55 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029
Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.
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Post by heehaw453 Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:56 am

GFS went nuclear. If it had closed off an hour earlier it would have global thermonuclear.

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Gfs207

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Post by essexcountypete Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:01 am

Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029
Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.
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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:04 am

essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029
Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

🤣  come on, really?!  That was your first thought?!  Hysterical!  You would've thought I made that map.
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Post by amugs Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:07 am

HOLY CRAP 2-3" rates per hour at Rush Hour!! This storm is reminding me of teh GREAT DYNAMIC storms of teh past - October 2011, Xmas 2002. Dynamics will cause havoc amongst models!

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 GGJRAaEWUAAomuE?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by 2004blackwrx Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:10 am

Should be a fun commute from Dutchess county to my training in Queens tomorrow.

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Post by Irish Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:12 am

Just waiting for my call for school cancelation tomorrow.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:12 am

GEFS hold with its Op

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Post by essexcountypete Mon Feb 12, 2024 11:12 am

Irish wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
Irish wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS just went Godzilla

February 12th-13th 2024 Pre-Valentines Day Storm Potential - Page 11 Img_7029
Okay, we can stop with any further updates or changes now that that dark purple strip is over my area.  Fire wood ready and selecting my movie list for tomorrow. This solution would be solid for most on this board.

My first thought when I saw that map was "oh Irish will like that one" LOL!!!  LOCK IT IN!!!

Mom should be loving that as well.

🤣  come on, really?!  That was your first thought?!  Hysterical!  You would've thought I made that map.

Totally! How often do you see the lollipop jackpot show up on Monmouth/Middlesex?

(just don't count on it staying there Razz )
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