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Severe Arctic Blast / Flash Freeze 1/6-1/7

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 03, 2014 12:24 am

I am going to post graphics and maybe do a blog sometime this weekend, but severe cold is going to get into our area next week when a piece of the Polar Vortex actually sinks down into the Great Lakes. In fact, there is the potential that the temperatures the Ohio Valley, Upper Midwest, and Northeast see next week will be the coldest in the ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE at that time. So we will be colder than Canada!

-Wind chills will be way below zero, possibly -10 or greater
-Low temperatures will be below 0
-High temps will be in the single digits and low teens

Images to come through the weekend.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 08, 2014 1:21 pm; edited 2 times in total

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Post by mako460 Fri Jan 03, 2014 6:31 am

And yet, it will be 45* and raining on Sunday after todays Arctic blast, go figure. So much for sustainability, LOL.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:33 am

It will be interesting to see how cold we get Saturday morning. I'm guessing at least -10 here. 0.7 right now with snow ending.

Tuesday morning should be colder, if there's snow cover left. Sunday night setup disgusting.
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Post by dolphins222 Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:58 am

i know this is dangerous, but at the same time, this is fascinating to me.

although not around the nj/ny area, there are places in the midwest area, like for the packers game sunday where the wind chill can feel like -30 plus during game time, which is something we dont see very often.

i hope this is just the start of winter, and this is not a one time thing.

winter should be very snowy and frigid like we r going to see today, and even more so next week.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:44 am

dolphins222 wrote:i know this is dangerous, but at the same time, this is fascinating to me.

although not around the nj/ny area, there are places in the midwest area, like for the packers game sunday where the wind chill can feel like -30 plus during game time, which is something we dont see very often.

i hope this is just the start of winter, and this is not a one time thing.

winter should be very snowy and frigid like we r going to see today, and even more so next week.

Upstate NY very similar to upper midwest temperature wise, except upstate NY gets a lot more snow than anywhere in the Midwest because of proximity to Great Lakes and Nor'Easters.

There are towns in northern New York that see -30 actual temperatures virtually every winter, of course they don't have a pro football team so no one ever hears about it.
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Post by HeresL Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:38 pm

Absolutely amazed that the forecast for my town for Monday the 6th is a high of 49 and a low of -1. That is one heck of a temperature swing!
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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:19 pm

Do you guys think public schools could be affected by the cold tuesday morning? Wind chills will be wicked for kids that take the bus.
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Post by Just in it for the Snow! Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:30 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Do you guys think public schools could be affected by the cold tuesday morning? Wind chills will be wicked for kids that take the bus.

There is some potential their could be area-wide delayed openings, particularly if a "Flash freeze" and a quick inch of snow are picked up on Monday afternoon imo.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:38 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Do you guys think public schools could be affected by the cold tuesday morning? Wind chills will be wicked for kids that take the bus.

Mets,

Being a teacher of 22 years I have only seen this once in my lifetime as a teacher and student - the year .................(the Mother of all Winters in my memory - record cold and snow every three to four days!!)

1994 - there were two delayed openings due to the wind chills being below zero - mid teens and twenties for the area. kids at the bus stops and those temps do not mix. The temps were also at zero or below zero on those days as well. I have seen many firsts but that was a true first for me in the 40 years of school.

God I hope not but it would not be out of the realm with how this winter is going so far. Shocked 

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Post by aiannone Fri Jan 03, 2014 10:41 pm

So you have seen them delay with wind chills below 0? Well Tuesday morning wind chills will be well below 0.... hmmm
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Post by snowday111 Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:13 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Do you guys think public schools could be affected by the cold tuesday morning? Wind chills will be wicked for kids that take the bus.
I do remember a year, maybe the MLK storm year, when they announced that we would have delayed openings for the rest of the week and it was only Tuesday or Wednesday. I'm pretty sure it was due to the wind chills so early in the morning and the ice at the bus stops. I guess we will find out. My daughter already declared that she will NOT be waiting outside at the bus stop!

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Post by Dtone Fri Jan 03, 2014 11:14 pm

I remember some school delays and closings when it got down to -2 in NYC in Jan 94.
This coming cold shot doesn't have forecast lows below zero in the city but highs only in low teens. Thats equally as remarkable. Its hard to stay below 20 an entire day, the few times I can remember that its like 18 or 19. A high of like 12* would be a first for me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:13 am

On Monday, temps will get into the mid 40's with some rain showers. Not looking at more then .25 to .50 inches of rain. The problem, however, is there will be a 40-50 degree temperature drop by Monday night (or early Tuesday morning).

7am Tuesday temperatures

Severe Arctic Blast / Flash Freeze 1/6-1/7 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_25

1pm Tuesday temperatures

Severe Arctic Blast / Flash Freeze 1/6-1/7 Gfs_t2m_b_nyc_27

My concern is there will be icing problems Tuesday morning, specifically for northwestern NJ where they will see the most rain during the day Monday which will rapidly freeze over Monday night.

We are only looking at high temperatures Tuesday in the single digits to low teens.

And the wind chills?

Severe Arctic Blast / Flash Freeze 1/6-1/7 Gfs_windchill_nyc_25

Anywhere from -10 to as much as -25 below ZERO

DANGEROUS COLD


Please take caution

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:23 pm

amugs wrote:
Mets2695 wrote:Do you guys think public schools could be affected by the cold tuesday morning? Wind chills will be wicked for kids that take the bus.

Mets,

Being a teacher of 22 years I have only seen this once in my lifetime as a teacher and student - the year .................(the Mother of all Winters in my memory - record cold and snow every three to four days!!)

1994 - there were two delayed openings due to the wind chills being below zero - mid teens and twenties for the area. kids at the bus stops and those temps do not mix.  The temps were also at zero or below zero on those days as well. I have seen many firsts but that was a true first for me in the 40 years of school.

God I hope not but it would not be out of the realm with how this winter is going so far. Shocked 

Mugs

I remember it well Mugs, we hit -23 here in Highland Mills, that's temperature not wind chill for those under 30 that would not remember this, Poughkeepsie, Newburgh, Middletown, all hit, -20 to -22. Those were the coldest temperatures I've ever experienced and I've lived in cold places.

It was also the last time NYC was below zero, although as I've stated before NYC did hit 1 above twice and 2 above on 3 separate days in January 2004.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 04, 2014 2:11 pm

Alex. I also meant to add to the above that school was canceled for 3 days here during that cold spell in 94. The morning it was -23 they cancelled that morning because many of the buses would not start due to the extreme cold.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 04, 2014 11:49 pm

When was the MLK day storm and what happened on that day, if it was before 1981 I wouldn't remember otherwise I just forgot. Does anyone have any links about it?
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Post by snowday111 Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:32 am

[quote="jmanley32"]When was the MLK day storm and what happened on that day, if it was before 1981 I wouldn't remember otherwise I just forgot.  Does anyone have any links about it?[/quote
I think it was in the 90s. sometime between 93-99. I was living in my old house, that's how remember that much. Otherwise, I am really bad at dates!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 05, 2014 9:41 am

We are still looking at a situation tomorrow where rain will fall during the day, (freezing rain possible by the evening when temps begin to drop) and then tempes really plummet overnight into the single digits resulting in flash freezes.

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Post by amugs Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:When was the MLK day storm and what happened on that day, if it was before 1981 I wouldn't remember otherwise I just forgot.  Does anyone have any links about it?

Jman,

It occurred in 1994 on MLK day where we had a strong low pressure cut across NJ bring heavy rain while a severe Arctic High was plunging down from Canada. The cold air rushed in towards the back 1/3 of the storm resulting in a flash freeze of the water on the ground in minutes so to speak that night. The temps plunged from about 40 to below freezing very quickly resulting in this flash freeze, freezing rain and then about 2" og snow on top.
The big issue was the cold air locked us up for the entire week and I mean what we are looking at mon night into thurs morn. Everything was frozen over and we had a myriad of problems, transportation, schools closed (not an issue in my book), energy - coal mounds which fire up our electric generation plants then froze, ice/icing of the Hudson-crazy stuff. I remember three days after I drove down I80 and there was only one lane to pavement and one lane with potholes of ice! Two lanes were basically closed! They used ash to spread for traction cause the salt would not work and caused more icing issues with refereeing - NOW THAT IS A FLASHFREEZE!!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 05, 2014 12:06 pm

Wow, so there is even a issue with possible power outages? And by locked up you mean you couldn't open doors and stuff or just was not safe to go out? Are we expecting this same drama tomorrow night into Tuesday morning? Sounds bad. I noticed the freezing rain advisory was extended till 7pm however its just rain here now so I am not sure why as its washing away most of the ice.
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Post by oldtimer Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:30 pm

Since yesterday i noticed temps will be higher here then was said up from 5 to 11 by tue am

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Post by oldtimer Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:41 pm

Dont think this new outbreak will get as low as previous we were near 0* on Long Island in some spots Not calling for that Mon-Tue nite IMO

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Post by Just in it for the Snow! Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:45 pm

oldtimer wrote:Dont think this new outbreak will get as low as previous   we were near 0* on Long Island in some spots  Not calling for that Mon-Tue nite   IMO

I think it's going to be more about the very low wind-chill factors as well as the fact that the high temperatures could be in the single digits for some of us on Tuesday.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:06 pm

oldtimer wrote:Dont think this new outbreak will get as low as previous   we were near 0* on Long Island in some spots  Not calling for that Mon-Tue nite   IMO

-13 In Westhampton
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 05, 2014 5:39 pm

We're only looking at less than a 1/4 inch of precip tomorrow so I doubt a 'flash freeze' that would result in major issues in the cards. Rain should end well before the temp falls below freezing.
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