Re: February 12th-14th Storm Potential

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:58 am

NAM just went crazy and is still sticking with the eastern track

February 12th-14th Storm Potential - Page 37 Nam_ref_neus_16

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:58 am

algae888 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:12z nam through hr 51 is a little further east but much colder it slams c. nj LI and nyc. less n/w.

Not what I want to hear at this stage but not surprised either. Probably the influence of that damn GL low. Why can't that just disappear. Well one mans loss will be someone else's gain.

cp i feel for ya man. buts its only one model. i still think you will be in a 6-10" range. track is perfect and if it wasn't for that kicker western precip shield would be greater.

I'm on mobile today so I can't see the models I'm 40 miles due north of NYC. How bad is the cutoff of the heavy precip?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:00 am

February 12th-14th Storm Potential - Page 37 10rq0x5

NAM snow map 4-km

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:01 am

The 500mb closed off on the NAM. QPF should be higher

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:03 am

docstox12 wrote:
algae888 wrote:12z nam through hr 51 is a little further east but much colder it slams c. nj LI and nyc. less n/w.

CP, don't count your chickens yet.

This NAM takes it east and we miss the heaviest snow again, just like all winter.

Stay tuned!

Doc. I'm now lowering my expectations sight unseen to 6-8. I've been saying since 4 days ago that sub 1000MB low over the GL was gonna scroo things up and I still believe that. Very weird setup.

by **aiannone** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:04 am

Wow could this be the right solution?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:05 am

February 12th-14th Storm Potential - Page 37 Nam_z850_vort_neus_19

850mb closed off

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:05 am

Wow Frank we get slammed with 12 to 18 in city and yonkers 888 you too. Wonder what 18z will show.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:

NAM snow map 4-km

I'm still in the 10 in h zone there but the cutoffs to the north are sharp. Getting much to close for comfort.

by **jmanley32** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:08 am

Frank could this trend even higher totals dare I say u know what?

by HEATMISER Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:09 am

So this is looking better for Long Island right now then..Frank do you see it trending back west again and when do you think it will be sort of a lock for us on the island?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:09 am

I think the EURO is too far west and the NAM is too far east

by **algae888** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:09 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:12z nam through hr 51 is a little further east but much colder it slams c. nj LI and nyc. less n/w.

Not what I want to hear at this stage but not surprised either. Probably the influence of that damn GL low. Why can't that just disappear. Well one mans loss will be someone else's gain.

cp i feel for ya man. buts its only one model. i still think you will be in a 6-10" range. track is perfect and if it wasn't for that kicker western precip shield would be greater.

I'm on mobile today so I can't see the models I'm 40 miles due north of NYC. How bad is the cutoff of the heavy precip?

really not tha bad. i don't know how to post maps but i'll give you a breakdown of qpf. s&c coastal nj & eastern half of LI 1.5-1.75. from Trenton n/e to SI & Nassau 1.25-1.5 from ne nj nyc white plains 1-1.25 then 25 miles north and west of white plains .75-1 and another 25 miles n/w of that line .5-.75

by **Artechmetals** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:10 am

Frank little confused are you saying storm is pushing more Ots ?

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:11 am

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:14 am

NAM is definately too far east given upper level signature. Still not in range yet so not worried.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:14 am

Thanks algae. From the NAM map frank posted I'm in the 10-11 inch zone. This storms like riding a roller coaster so far with each run. Heading into a clients office now so I won't be on till after 6. Don't let this thing trend any further east. I'm counting on you LOL.

by **jimv45** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:18 am

Calm down cp this is going to be a good snow for us in the mid-Hudson valley Nam is to far south and east this thing will hug the coast there will be mixing I-95 big snow north I just checked with buddy said models will go back and forth today so don't look at every run!

by **skinsfan1177** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:24 am

Frank nam looks great for me here correct

by **algae888** Tue Feb 11, 2014 10:24 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Thanks algae. From the NAM map frank posted I'm in the 10-11 inch zone. This storms like riding a roller coaster so far with each run. Heading into a clients office now so I won't be on till after 6. Don't let this thing trend any further east. I'm counting on you LOL.

cp i just called the gfs i told it to make sure that low sits and spins off of AC for about 12 hours.lol