Re: 02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:08 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Just got home, I think im going to pull a all nighter to track this one.
hey Ace you still sticking to your map i hope so. Waiting to hete your take
Actually making a new final map right now.

oh boy hope its better lol

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:09 pm

I'll make a map after 0z tonight.

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:10 pm

mhbaben wrote:Channel 4 just said drop to 4-8. Can anyone tell me how to put Staten Island on my posts?

ontop of the entire page where you see under the baner calander etc go to profile you can enter location right there

by meeka312 Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:10 pm

For Monmouth country are we looking at more snow or less snow then this mornings predictions?

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:13 pm

from mt.holly ALL THE ANALOGS
WE LISTED YESTERDAY ANOTHER COMES TO MIND NOW THAT WE HAVE A FRONT
END SNOW, A LULL, AND A DEFORMATION ZONE PARTING SHOT. JAN 26-27,
2011.

I guess the set up looks like that storm. can some one remind me of it do not remember specifics of that storm.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:15 pm

algae888 wrote:from mt.holly ALL THE ANALOGS
WE LISTED YESTERDAY ANOTHER COMES TO MIND NOW THAT WE HAVE A FRONT
END SNOW, A LULL, AND A DEFORMATION ZONE PARTING SHOT. JAN 26-27,
2011.

I guess the set up looks like that storm. can some one remind me of it do not remember specifics of that storm.

Different setup.

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11-SurfaceMaps.html

Precip creeping towards DC, shes a biggun.

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:15 pm

algae888 wrote:from mt.holly ALL THE ANALOGS
WE LISTED YESTERDAY ANOTHER COMES TO MIND NOW THAT WE HAVE A FRONT
END SNOW, A LULL, AND A DEFORMATION ZONE PARTING SHOT. JAN 26-27,
2011.

I guess the set up looks like that storm. can some one remind me of it do not remember specifics of that storm.

i found this

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/SOO/case_studies/01272011.html

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:18 pm

Just saw franks map holy crap 24+? Any input on his thinking

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:18 pm

mt holly THE FRONT END FRONTOGENETIC/WAA THUMPING REMAINS THE SAME. WHILE
THERE IS VARYING DEGREES OF GEOGRAPHY, THEY ALL BRING A VERY
IMPRESSIVE FGEN BAND THRU OUR CWA FROM 07Z TO 15Z. ON THE FSU WEB
SITE OFF THE 12Z NAM, ITS MAXING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR IN
THIS BAND SEEMS LIKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ESTIMATE. ONLY SAVING
GRACE IS THE PREDICTED MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURE WHICH STEADILY GOES
SOUTH TO NORTH AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED DRY SLOT. NO CHANGE IN THE
FCST QPV EITHER, THUNDER NEAR THE APPROACHING THE DRY SLOT WOULD NOT
BE A SHOCKER. THE COINCIDENCE OF STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW
ALONG COASTAL NEW JERSEY IS TOO NARROW IN TIME AT THIS JUNCTURE TO
CONFIDENTLY THINK ABOUT BLIZZARD. BUT, WHEREVER YOU ARE, WHEN THIS
BAND MOVES THROUGH, DRIVING WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT AT BEST. NO
UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS RECOMMENDED.

WOW cant wait for that band to come through. thunder snows!

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:19 pm

I was waiting for it

Just heard it on ABC "Chris Christie has declared a state of emergency,NJ has run out of twinkies"

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:22 pm

RJB8525 wrote:
algae888 wrote:from mt.holly ALL THE ANALOGS
WE LISTED YESTERDAY ANOTHER COMES TO MIND NOW THAT WE HAVE A FRONT
END SNOW, A LULL, AND A DEFORMATION ZONE PARTING SHOT. JAN 26-27,
2011.

I guess the set up looks like that storm. can some one remind me of it do not remember specifics of that storm.

i found this

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/SOO/case_studies/01272011.html

thanks RJB I guessing that was the last time NC schools were closed?

by **algae888** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:23 pm

that's NYC schools were closed

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:23 pm

Do not compare to that storm, storm came in from SW to NE, this one is coming due north and then turning NE somewhere off the coast of NJ. Gradient will be W-E instead of N-S like that storm.

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:23 pm

from what I reading sounds like more snow now for coastal areas

by photec Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:25 pm

State offices area closed tomorrow according to an email I just received here at work in Trenton.

by **mako460** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:26 pm

lee and jeff do not seem worried. back ends snows maybe 1-3 according to them. R/S line all the way up to 287.

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:27 pm

algae888 wrote:that's NYC schools were closed

lol the odds of them being closed tomorrow are none to none forget slim

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 10 1526601_644157762292551_2051780885_n

02/13 Godzilla Storm Obs. Thread / Final Discussions - Page 10 1526601_644157762292551_2051780885_n

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:28 pm

Is this the favorable setup we were looking for help me out here been at work wasn't able to follow

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:29 pm

Talked to a buddy of mine that lives in the same town as me (we went through HS together) and his little bro which is a junior in the HS said that they've had 6 snow days so far and 0 built in. Tomorrow makes 7 and complete elimination of spring break. Wow

by **RJB8525** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:29 pm

all local mets are downgrading..NWS upgrading...models going haywire...is this worst case scenario for weather model forecasting?

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:30 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Talked to a buddy of mine that lives in the same town as me (we went through HS together) and his little bro which is a junior in the HS said that they've had 6 snow days so far and 0 built in. Tomorrow makes 7 and complete elimination of spring break. Wow

and fridays snow day will be added days in June.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:31 pm

sroc4 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:Talked to a buddy of mine that lives in the same town as me (we went through HS together) and his little bro which is a junior in the HS said that they've had 6 snow days so far and 0 built in. Tomorrow makes 7 and complete elimination of spring break. Wow
and fridays snow day will be added days in June.

No, there is a 4 day break this weekend (Fri and Mon off) I have no idea why they didn't just eliminate that. Apparently they need several weeks notice to make changes to the calender.

by mac1201 Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:31 pm

I don't care who you are - that bus is cool!

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:32 pm

Rj did frank see improvements or does he have concerns

by **sroc4** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:32 pm

QUOTE FROM LARRY COSGROVE:

The only things I can add at this point is that these items were not discussed by many enthusiasts: the track of the 500MB and 850MB low, the surface wind pattern with a retreating anticyclone offshore of New England, and the 850MB temperature not being below -5 C in the urban areas where folks are proclaiming "big snow". The 850MB core low should be 50 miles or so to the right of the heaviest falls. 500MB low/voricity must be 125 miles to the right of the heaviest snow; Surface pressure gradient has a strong ESE "accordion" gradient which will air in rapid warming of the atmosphere; 850MB temperature has to be lower than -5C to ensure "offset" of milder air masses moving into the low. Great vertical velocities can overcome some parameters, but you see THREE items which are not favorable for a classic I-95 corridor heavy snow event. Nowcasting is the word...let us see the results and what

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:34 pm

^ Agree, anyone taking the NAM or GFS verbatim right now is going to be disappointed. Short range models and nowcasting from now on.

by **Artechmetals** Wed Feb 12, 2014 5:38 pm

When can we expect Frank

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