March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
oldtimer wrote:Hector Where are you ?
Mahwah, NJ
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
I wouldnt say bust just yet tonights run important
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
What are the wind speeds coming onto the coast of california?
Scullybutcher- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
There's something very weird about the 18z GFS. It pushes the storm much further south even though the polar vortex is not that further south compared to the 0z or 12z. Also, much less total liquid accumulation, even though it appears more organized on the 18z.
I'm not a pro like many others here, but it definitely seems like a weird run. We'll see what the 0z GFS shows tonight!!
I'm not a pro like many others here, but it definitely seems like a weird run. We'll see what the 0z GFS shows tonight!!
MinaMak- Posts : 19
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
BTW, don't know why accuweather.com or weather.com are not updating their forecasts. Pretty sure that the 6-12" line does not extend to North CT or Albany, unless they are predicting this based on better ratios?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/longduration-snow-awaits-midwe/23778975
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/longduration-snow-awaits-midwe/23778975
MinaMak- Posts : 19
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
The image of the low off the coast of CA really looks like a hurricane. Just amazing. This is such a unique set-up with the polar vortex and that strong low pressure system traveling from west to east across the entire continental US. So many factors at play, including its passing over mountainous terrain. Seems strange even the speed at which it will make it here. Can't wait until there is enough info available for this to be sorted out and forecast. Can't make the chat tonight, so special request that someone please post a synopsis of what the thinking is so I can check back and see. Hoping to get some sleep tonight, but thinking my curiousity will get the best of me and I'll be waking up and popping back here.
cooladi- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
On mobule now at the bar with some friends, will post intermittent updates, NAM to 36 FWIW, I need help.........
NjWeatherGuy- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
mina u make some valid points. 00z gfs is going to be key imo.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
ill copy and paste updates from accu forum
"Heights east at 30 hours a little higher at H5...perhaps because wave is stronger. NAM does still depict the little energy running ahead, but not as fast with this and a little further north."
cheat sheet someone made
"Just for grins....
Model trends....
Faster = north Slower = South
Stronger = north Weaker = South
Assumes PV remains stable"
"Heights east at 30 hours a little higher at H5...perhaps because wave is stronger. NAM does still depict the little energy running ahead, but not as fast with this and a little further north."
cheat sheet someone made
"Just for grins....
Model trends....
Faster = north Slower = South
Stronger = north Weaker = South
Assumes PV remains stable"
Last edited by pdubz on Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NJ I am always on mobile wx lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NAM @ 33 Hrs
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
"NAM is allowing/forecasting a little stronger SE US ridge. Wave is nearly identical west, yet heights higher east. Would not be surprised to see a small nudge north with this run, but..."
pdubz- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NAM @42.........
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=14
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=14
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Everyone is waiting for the 10'oclock news "chat" lol
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051
this looks bad, or maybe im missing something but no snow in NYC south.
this looks bad, or maybe im missing something but no snow in NYC south.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
When the front passes through, it will change to snow No worries. Rain at the start was forecasted.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NWS has me for 3 to 5 inches Sunday night with snow ending Monday at 3 PM.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
So the nam is showing no snow nyc south thats horrible.
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
no skins i was wrong its filling in. ill post in a few more run maps
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Who said that? Precip from the second wave didn't even come in yet.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
They thought the initial overrunning on Sunday was the main precip.Mets2695 wrote:Who said that? Precip from the second wave didn't even come in yet.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
my mistkae sorry i wasnt watching the times correctly sorry guys.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
Keep in mind, the NAM is still out of its prime (>48hrs). 12z tmw starts its prime.
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
No problem,JM. I don't believe any of these models this far out.On Sunday night when I look at the radar, I'll know what's going to happen.
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
JDKWeather wrote:Guys face it - this is a huge bust for us - I76 south is going to get the snow
North of that trace - 2 "
Lets refrain from saying something is a bust before it is even here yet. This system is still 2 days away. Do you know how many changes can still happen within those 2 days? After looking over additional data, I see no reason to change my call from days ago, 6-12 inches.
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
right im more interested in 00z gfs.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm
NAM @57.............
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
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