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March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

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Post by Scullybutcher Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:04 pm

What are the wind speeds coming onto the coast of california?
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Post by MinaMak Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:05 pm

There's something very weird about the 18z GFS. It pushes the storm much further south even though the polar vortex is not that further south compared to the 0z or 12z. Also, much less total liquid accumulation, even though it appears more organized on the 18z.

I'm not a pro like many others here, but it definitely seems like a weird run. We'll see what the 0z GFS shows tonight!!

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Post by MinaMak Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:10 pm

BTW, don't know why accuweather.com or weather.com are not updating their forecasts. Pretty sure that the 6-12" line does not extend to North CT or Albany, unless they are predicting this based on better ratios?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/longduration-snow-awaits-midwe/23778975

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Post by cooladi Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:12 pm

The image of the low off the coast of CA really looks like a hurricane. Just amazing. This is such a unique set-up with the polar vortex and that strong low pressure system traveling from west to east across the entire continental US. So many factors at play, including its passing over mountainous terrain. Seems strange even the speed at which it will make it here. Can't wait until there is enough info available for this to be sorted out and forecast. Can't make the chat tonight, so special request that someone please post a synopsis of what the thinking is so I can check back and see. Hoping to get some sleep tonight, but thinking my curiousity will get the best of me and I'll be waking up and popping back here.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:12 pm

On mobule now at the bar with some friends, will post intermittent updates, NAM to 36 FWIW, I need help.........
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:13 pm

mina u make some valid points. 00z gfs is going to be key imo.
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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:14 pm

ill copy and paste updates from accu forum

"Heights east at 30 hours a little higher at H5...perhaps because wave is stronger. NAM does still depict the little energy running ahead, but not as fast with this and a little further north."

cheat sheet someone made

"Just for grins....

Model trends....

Faster = north Slower = South
Stronger = north Weaker = South

Assumes PV remains stable"


Last edited by pdubz on Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:14 pm

NJ I am always on mobile wx lol
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:18 pm

NAM @ 33 Hrs

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=033&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
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Post by pdubz Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:19 pm

"NAM is allowing/forecasting a little stronger SE US ridge. Wave is nearly identical west, yet heights higher east. Would not be surprised to see a small nudge north with this run, but..."
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:22 pm

NAM @42.........

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=14
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Post by oldtimer Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:23 pm

Everyone is waiting for the 10'oclock news "chat" lol

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:25 pm

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051

this looks bad, or maybe im missing something but no snow in NYC south.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:25 pm

When the front passes through, it will change to snow No worries. Rain at the start was forecasted.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:26 pm

NWS has me for 3 to 5 inches Sunday night with snow ending Monday at 3 PM.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:28 pm

So the nam is showing no snow nyc south thats horrible.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:29 pm

no skins i was wrong its filling in. ill post in a few more run maps
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:30 pm

Who said that? Precip from the second wave didn't even come in yet.
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Post by Quietace Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:31 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Who said that? Precip from the second wave didn't even come in yet.
They thought the initial overrunning on Sunday was the main precip.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:32 pm

my mistkae sorry i wasnt watching the times correctly sorry guys.
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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:33 pm

Keep in mind, the NAM is still out of its prime (>48hrs). 12z tmw starts its prime.
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Post by docstox12 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:34 pm

No problem,JM. I don't believe any of these models this far out.On Sunday night when I look at the radar, I'll know what's going to happen.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:35 pm

@JDKWeather wrote:Guys face it  - this is a huge bust for us  - I76 south is going to get the snow

North of that trace - 2 "

Lets refrain from saying something is a bust before it is even here yet. This system is still 2 days away. Do you know how many changes can still happen within those 2 days? After looking over additional data, I see no reason to change my call from days ago, 6-12 inches.

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Post by jmanley32 Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:35 pm

right im more interested in 00z gfs.
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Post by Joe Snow Fri Feb 28, 2014 9:35 pm

NAM @57.............

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140301+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0
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