March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

Only thing with EURO is it gets the storm out of here much sooner than the other models. It does not even have the mood flakes for during the day Sunday. better run than last night though

Is that what u expected? And boom means good run!!

Yea, EURO is still 12+ for us. Lol

No light snow at least during the day Sun?

Wow So your whole crew is on a roll for 2morrow Nice!!

Wow. I can't believe Frank called this a couple of weeks ago. I had my doubts, but seeing IS believing. As usual, I'm awe struck. he must have a crystal ball. LOL

1pm NYC gets into the teens going to be good ratios

pdubz wrote:1pm NYC gets into the teens going to be good ratios

Surface temps aren't a big factor in ratios. Good lift in a layer around 700mbs with temps of -12 to -18 degrees C is optimal snow growth. Strong mid level winds, which I learned more about this year , can rip apart the dendrites and reduce ratios.

pdubz wrote:1pm NYC gets into the teens going to be good ratios

And if the Euro is right the snow starts to lighten up rapidly after 1pm

Does anyone have a total snowfall map for the euro

from upton...MONITORING CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW MUCH DOES IT PHASE WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND HOW STRONG IS THE EASTWARD ARM OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING TO OUR N SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PHASING AND/OR THE STRONGER THE HIGH THE MORE LIKELY THE
LOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE STORM. THE STRONGER THE PHASING AND/OR THE
WEAKER THE HIGH...THE CLOSER THE LOW WILL COME TO THE REGION...AND
THE GREATER THE IMPACT OF THE STORM

CURRENT TRENDS ARE FAVOR LESS PHASING...BUT ARE UNCLEAR ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. TAKING THESE TRENDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO OUR SE
INSTEAD OF ONE COHERENT STRONGER STORM. THE FIRST LOW SHOULD TRACK
NEAR THE BENCH MARK MONDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCH MARK LATE MONDAY...WITH A THIRD LOW TRACKING
EVEN FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...STILL EXPECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW
TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT...NOW EXPECT SNOW TO END
FROM NW TO SE FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE SOLUTION
IS NOW FAVORING MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS...VICE ONE MAIN LOW...SHOULD
NOT DRAW AS MOISTURE AS A WHOLE INTO THE REGION. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS

...THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END
UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL - THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

ANOTHER SOLUTION
STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND
SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY.

wow! the final solution still needs to be ironed out. BTW 6z nam has rain for first wave and the second wave passes us to the south. starting to get a headache with this storm.

guess Upton didn't see last night model runs

mt holly...WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX IS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND WILL EFFECTIVELY
BLOCK ANY THOUGHTS OF A RAINY SOLUTION, THE INFUSION OF COLD AIR
IS STILL TIED TO SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. CAN IT BODY SLAM
US WITH COLDER AIR FASTER AND GIVE US A CANADIAN GGEM SOLUTION?
ITS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF COLD DENSE AIR IN
CANADA. ARE THE POORER RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH ARE
WARMER, MAYBE NOT TAKING THIS INTO CONSIDERATION? AGAIN NOT THAT
ILLOGICAL. THIS DOES GO AGAINST THE GRAIN OF WHAT HAS BEEN A
NORTHWARD DRIFT WITH PRACTICALLY EVERY SYSTEM THIS WINTER. THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION IS POSITIVE, AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO.
THEREFORE THERE REMAINS AN ESCAPE HATCH. THE SECOND PLAYER IS
STILL IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THAT SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CONUS
AND ENERGY FROM IT WILL DEVELOP THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG THE
FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY FASTER SHEARED SOLUTION TONIGHT.
ITS THE REASON QPF VALUES HAVE COME DOWN ON THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM.
WHILE THE WAVES ON THE FRONT WILL NEVER BE MISTAKEN FROM HULK
HOGAN, THERE IS AN EFFECTIVE FCST 150KT PLUS H250 JET WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND GLFMEX MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE INFUSED INTO IT. SO AN
EVENT PCPN AMOUNT TOTAL OF AROUND AN INCH IS NOT IN 95TH
PERCENTILE TERRITORY.
 
THE UPSHOT REMAINS THAT OUR ENTIRE CWA SHOULD NOT ESCAPE WITH A
BENIGN OUTCOME. BUT, ALL OF THE PLAYERS ARE STILL NOT WITHIN THE
DENSE SOUNDING NETWORK AND SHOULD NOT BE UNTIL THE SOUNDING RUN
SATURDAY EVENING. SO WHILE WE ENCOURAGE EVERYONE TO SERIOUSLY TAKE
MONDAY`S WEATHER INTO CONSIDERATION INCLUDING PREPARATIONS, ITS
WAY TOO EARLY TO BECOME ATTACHED TO ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION OR
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. ONE OF OUR DISTINGUISHED COLLEAGUES WHO
RECENTLY RETIRED USED TO SAY THERE ARE FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS THAT
HAVE A SHORTER SHELF LIFE IN OUR AREA THAN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION.

so many factors with this storm.

6z gfs further north. CP you'll love that run. maybe some mixing central nj for a brief time but a great run for most of us. gfs has been consistant with this storm now for days. hope she is right.

Well one thing is for sure none of local mets on board for the amounts we are talking about here they have me in 3-6 when with last nights runs 12 + lol

how much further north? is the heavy precip still around NYC?

skinsfan1177 wrote:Well one thing is for sure none of local mets on board for the amounts we are talking about here they have me in 3-6 when with last nights runs 12 + lol

they have to be playing it safe because even Bill Evans and fox 5 weather met also has most of us in 6-12 which is wayyy under i think

what's interesting about the 6gfs is that the HP to our north is stronger and a little further south than 00z so I would think precip shield to be farther south but that is not the case. gfs seems to have the stronger low with more phasing with the northern stream. other models have less phasing. hope gfs is correct and I am leaning towards it's solution because it has been the most consistent

algae888 wrote:what's interesting about the 6gfs is that the HP to our north is stronger and a little further south than 00z so I would think precip shield to be farther south but that is not the case. gfs seems to have the stronger low with more phasing with the northern stream. other models have less phasing. hope gfs is correct and I am leaning towards it's solution because it has been the most consistent

yeah i like how the GFS has this locked in for 8 runs now, do you have a snow map for the 6z?

pdubz wrote:how much further north? is the heavy precip still around NYC?

yes heavy precip per 6z gfs from s/nj to around Albany. gfs has much stronger LP than other models and even stronger than 00z

algae888 wrote:

pdubz wrote:how much further north? is the heavy precip still around NYC?

yes heavy precip per 6z gfs from s/nj to around Albany. gfs has much stronger LP than other models and even stronger than 00z

no jman we need you to post 6z gfs snow map

found a map, looks like southern L.I just makes it into the 12-16"

skinsfan1177 wrote:Well one thing is for sure none of local mets on board for the amounts we are talking about here they have me in 3-6 when with last nights runs 12 + lol

skins inaccu wx has me for 6-10. they have to play this safe because there is a descent chance we could end up around 3". think that would be the worst case scenario for us. we need the lp to phase a be stronger that's my thinking right now. gfs is only model showing that right now.

pdubz wrote:found a map, looks like southern L.I just makes it into the 12-16"

CP,MUGS, SNOW MAN AND DOC you guys are going to love 6z gfs snow map

hey yall lol i come to the rescue:

still looks great and only slightly changed.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022806&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=096

oh well beat me to it.  non the less, those wordings from up[ton and mt. holly are a bit concerning especially what upton said can we say shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

jmanley32 wrote:oh well beat me to it.  non the less, those wordings from up[ton and mt. holly are a bit concerning especially what upton said can we say shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!

Lol. Yes we can. J, where in the Bronx are you btw? South?