March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

sroc4 wrote:Nam is starting to catch on.  It still has the 850 line kick north of CT for a period of time from Hr 54 through 66 or so.  I think its too far north.  Precip shield is wetter.  NAM still not in its bread and butter zone but getting there

A good trend for sure, I'm not very concerned about temps at this point, just bring in the moisture the PV should do the rest.

Nam is not in prime yet

Hey all morning! Getting there, still things to iron out but if a full phase all I can say is wow!

nam run was very encouraging. spat out 1" to 1.25" liquid. temps still to warm at the start but a very good trend. it also looks to hold back the pv a little bit west of it's position from 6z so you would figure nam would be warmer at 12z but it wasn't. i think nam is having trouble with thermal profiles right now. would expect it to trend colder at 18z.

Can't wait to see the 12z GFS! More qpf anyone? lol

If the GFS and EURO hold serve at 12z, then I'll totally jump in and woof it up.  

GFS 12z has started.....................Lets see what it brings................

According to instant wx maps snow up to 6+ at 75 hrs except far south jersey, looks to be another good run but a bit further south maybe.

Dang actually alot further south, not going to make HV people happy.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=078

GFS is a bit south while 6z was north, Going to see track wiggles for a while

Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

NJ what a drop in QPF, is that hopefully a wiggle? After so many runs showing windespread 12+?

Snow seems to end here.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014022812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

jmanley32 wrote:Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

This trend is exactly what Frank was talking about. He expected a shift to the south in models, which actually is a good thing for us. They will tick back north tonight at 00z or tomorrow which has been the case all winter. If the north trend continued instead of this, heavier snows would be north of us.

So soul you think qpf will go back up tonight along with a tick north?

Not to worried this will come back north again!

jmanley32 wrote:So sould you think qpf will go back up tonight along with a tick north?

QPF will vary too until this thing is locked in late tomorrow. That run still gives NYC a solid foot.

What a teaser these models are, man now onto CMC and Euro. Hope they are ok.

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

This trend is exactly what Frank was talking about. He expected a shift to the south in models, which actually is a good thing for us. They will tick back north tonight at 00z or tomorrow which has been the case all winter. If the north trend continued instead of this, heavier snows would be north of us.

1 run is not a trend, the 6z run was north so it adjusted a bit further south. The NAM went way north albeit yet not in great range, EURO went north at 0z too, track is close to set, battleground IMO is HV where there may be cutoff issues especially much further north in the HV

ok thx soul and jim : ) yes solid foot is fine but 16-18 even better like the past few runs: ) Will see what 18z says. See you all in a bit for CMC and later for Euro.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

This trend is exactly what Frank was talking about. He expected a shift to the south in models, which actually is a good thing for us. They will tick back north tonight at 00z or tomorrow which has been the case all winter. If the north trend continued instead of this, heavier snows would be north of us.

1 run is not a trend, the 6z run was north so it adjusted a bit further south. The NAM went way north albeit yet not in great range, EURO went north at 0z too, track is close to set, battleground IMO is HV where there may be cutoff issues especially much further north in the HV

Sorry, this 'potential trend' is exactly what frank mentioned may start happening around now; only to see it go back.

Also, the northern & southern stream interact less on this run which doesn't bode well for phasing. But this is ONE RUN, I agree. So don't marry it ;-)

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

This trend is exactly what Frank was talking about. He expected a shift to the south in models, which actually is a good thing for us. They will tick back north tonight at 00z or tomorrow which has been the case all winter. If the north trend continued instead of this, heavier snows would be north of us.

I agree. Don't freak out with the south shift. It's just model waffling at this point. If the storm shifted north I'd be more concerned. That would cause less snow and warmer temps. I expect a trend north again as we get closer to game time. The canadian is up next… want to start seeing improvements… pretty much the only model showing no major storm.

jimv45 wrote:Not to worried this will come back north again!

I agree but someone in the mid HV, hopefully north of Knigston, is going to be sitting within 30 miles of a foot of snow while they get 3 inches. This has looked pretty clear for several days.

Suppression south has been my concern with this from day one, not temps.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Dang alot lower QPF whats going on with that?

This trend is exactly what Frank was talking about. He expected a shift to the south in models, which actually is a good thing for us. They will tick back north tonight at 00z or tomorrow which has been the case all winter. If the north trend continued instead of this, heavier snows would be north of us.

I agree. Don't freak out with the south shift. It's just model waffling at this point. If the storm shifted north I'd be more concerned. That would cause less snow and warmer temps. I expect a trend north again as we get closer to game time. The canadian is up next… want to start seeing improvements… pretty much the only model showing no major storm.

Which is NUTS considering the CMC on Tues showed 2 feet of snow lol. Where are you, Canada??

Guys,
Just saw the model runs of the NAM and GFS - listen we are going to see some wiggles N and S with these models and can't hang our hats on every run - the frickin' storm is coming and we get 8"+ we'll take it at this time but I see the GFS leading the way and the models will follow its lead on this one IMO. The GFS is holding and saying "I won't back down" so far - the great Tom Petty tune - 1988 - sorry Frank, Ace and Alex - before your yungin's time! HAHA!

If you look at the 500mb chart the main area of consolidated energy in the southern stream seemed weaker as well. If it end up being stronger than modeled it would stand to reason it will push the soln back north a little and hopefully interact with the N stream more increasing QPF again. We will have to look at the water vapor imagery starting this weekend to see how the convection is gathering in the STJ to see if the GFS is under modeling that with this run.  Def only 1 run, I echo Tom and Souls comments in that 1 run is not a trend.  No worries at this point.