March 2nd-4th Potential Snowstorm

Guys,
Just saw the model runs of the NAM and GFS - listen we are going to see some wiggles N and S with these models and can't hang our hats on every run - the frickin' storm is coming and we get 8"+ we'll take it at this time but I see the GFS leading the way and the models will follow its lead on this one IMO. The GFS is holding and saying "I won't back down" so far - the great Tom Petty tune - 1988 - sorry Frank, Ace and Alex - before your yungin's time! HAHA!

If you look at the 500mb chart the main area of consolidated energy in the southern stream seemed weaker as well. If it end up being stronger than modeled it would stand to reason it will push the soln back north a little and hopefully interact with the N stream more increasing QPF again. We will have to look at the water vapor imagery starting this weekend to see how the convection is gathering in the STJ to see if the GFS is under modeling that with this run.  Def only 1 run, I echo Tom and Souls comments in that 1 run is not a trend.  No worries at this point.

amugs wrote:Guys,
Just saw the model runs of the NAM and GFS - listen we are going to see some wiggles N and S with these  models and can't hang our hats on every run - the frickin' storm is coming and we get 8"+ we'll take it at this time but I see the GFS leading the way and the models will follow its lead on this one IMO. The GFS is holding and saying "I won't back down" so far - the great Tom Petty tune - 1988 - sorry Frank, Ace and Alex - before your yungin's time! HAHA!

God, thank you! Jeez on another forum, I'm seeing posts right now from people literally saying 'I'd be worried if I were in NYC right now. Could get nothing.' It's insanity!

cmc looks a lot like gfs thru hr 48 at the surface. maybe a tad north

sroc4 wrote:If you look at the 500mb chart the main area of consolidated energy in the southern stream seemed weaker as well. If it end up being stronger than modeled it would stand to reason it will push the soln back north a little and hopefully interact with the N stream more increasing QPF again. We will have to look at the water vapor imagery starting this weekend to see how the convection is gathering in the STJ to see if the GFS is under modeling that with this run.  Def only 1 run, I echo Tom and Souls comments in that 1 run is not a trend.  No worries at this point.

Yeah good point. Also, I think the southern stream energy finally hits the mainland sometime this evening which will give models even better sampling of it.

Hey soul well thats just crazy, not likely. After reading all these posts I am feeling much better your all right, its one run out of what 8-9 that showed high qpf and its still faiirly steady.

SoulSingMG wrote:

sroc4 wrote:If you look at the 500mb chart the main area of consolidated energy in the southern stream seemed weaker as well. If it end up being stronger than modeled it would stand to reason it will push the soln back north a little and hopefully interact with the N stream more increasing QPF again. We will have to look at the water vapor imagery starting this weekend to see how the convection is gathering in the STJ to see if the GFS is under modeling that with this run.  Def only 1 run, I echo Tom and Souls comments in that 1 run is not a trend.  No worries at this point.

Yeah good point. Also, I think the southern stream energy finally hits the mainland sometime this evening which will give models even better sampling of it.

I agree plus doesn't the gfs have trouble handling the southern stream energy?

I think cnj is in great shape either way for a good snow event

mugs, why has the GFS been so bad all season and suddenly its doing so well and we are taking a decent stance in it? Is it because of the completely different setup, rather than a coastal low?

I am still good in the foot range (very close to NYC not far enough north in westchester to be concerned. so what am I complaining about, well I am a weather and snow weenie! I want as much as we can get but I will not get greedy and hope for more but be ok with less. : )

CP I think the cutoff will be near Albany we should be in decent shape.

cmc looks like last nights run. i'm only up to hr 65 their are 2 waves first is mostly north with a little rain and second wave looks to be going south of us.

cmc gives us a 2-4" snow fall. about 6-7 hours of light to moderate snow. 2nd wave looks weaker than last night

Pulled this from NWS

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONITORING CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE QUESTION
BECOMES HOW MUCH DOES IT PHASE WITH A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...AND HOW STRONG IS THE EASTWARD ARM OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING TO OUR N SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE LESS PHASING AND/OR THE STRONGER THE HIGH THE MORE LIKELY THE
LOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND REDUCING THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE STORM. THE STRONGER THE PHASING AND/OR THE
WEAKER THE HIGH...THE CLOSER THE LOW WILL COME TO THE REGION...AND
THE GREATER THE IMPACT OF THE STORM.

CURRENT TRENDS ARE FAVOR LESS PHASING...BUT ARE UNCLEAR ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. TAKING THESE TRENDS...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT WE COULD SEE MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO OUR SE
INSTEAD OF ONE COHERENT STRONGER STORM. THE FIRST LOW SHOULD TRACK
NEAR THE BENCH MARK MONDAY MORNING...AND THE SECOND WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCH MARK LATE MONDAY...WITH A THIRD LOW TRACKING
EVEN FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THIS...STILL EXPECT
SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW
TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SE MONDAY NIGHT...NOW EXPECT SNOW TO END
FROM NW TO SE FAIRLY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE SOLUTION
IS NOW FAVORING MULTIPLE WEAKER LOWS...VICE ONE MAIN LOW...SHOULD
NOT DRAW AS MOISTURE AS A WHOLE INTO THE REGION. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE REDUCED THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION
OF THE AFD FOR DETAILS.

ONE THING THE FARTHER OFFSHORE TRACK FOR THE LOWS DOES
THOUGH...COUPLED WITH THE EXTENSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING IN
TO THE N...IS THAT ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL STAY TO OUR
SOUTH...SO THE AREA SHOULD ONLY EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW. THE STRENGTH OF
THE HIGH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW COLD IT GETS...BUT FOR NOW
WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A FLUFFY SNOW THAN A WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SO THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE N COULD
VERY WELL OFFSET THE LOWER QPF.

AS A RESULT...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO REASON TO DEPART FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE TRI-STATE FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE TREND CONTINUES
TOWARDS A MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE S SOLUTION...THEN LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE THAT THE ENTIRE REGION COULD END
UP GETTING NO SNOW AT ALL - THOUGH HIGHLY UNLIKELY. ANOTHER
POSSIBILITY THAT WOULD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES IS
THAT A WEAKER HIGH BUILDS TO THE N THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THIS
WOULD ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...REDUCING AMOUNTS
THERE. THIS ALSO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SOLUTION
STILL POSSIBLE IS THAT THERE IS MORE PHASING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THIS WOULD BRING THE LOWS...OR MORE LIKELY A SINGLE LOW
TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BENCH MARK...THIS WOULD INCREASE QPF AND
SNOWFALL...BUT COULD ALSO BRING THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
HIGH. THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC POSSIBILITY.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE THE HWO AS IS...EXCEPT FOR
WILL MENTION THE SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING

algae888 wrote:cmc gives us a 2-4" snow fall. about 6-7 hours of light to moderate snow. 2nd wave looks weaker than last night

Correct, it's weak and extremely frontal in nature. Extremely sheared out and there is No support for this solution.

so far we have the nam furthest north and most qpf some of it rain. cmc north with the first wave and furthest south with the second one and least qpf. and the gfs in the middle. oh boy! well I can see the models have a spread like this right up to sunday morning.

algea ur killin me lol. I still feel GFS will prevail but I admit could be wrong. This is a very complex situation.

jmanley32 wrote: mugs, why has the GFS been so bad all season and suddenly its doing so well and we are taking a decent stance in it?  Is it because of the completely different setup, rather than a coastal low?

Jman the GFS will still have some issue with the southern energy so here it is -  Models, especially the GFS like to underplay southern stream energy. Look at it having wiggle room, before almost inevitable NW trend begins inside 24-48hr IMO - the last GFS could be a hiccup but again as SROC pointed out and Ace the upper levels have a great deal of moisture and the H5 looks like a good set up ( I take his word on this 1000%).  
And yes this set up is different. 

CMC is banned until we get inside 36 hours and it becomes the RGEM IMO then we pay attention - it is pissed we are getting a good thumping of snow - typical of the northerners!!   

Wasnt the gfs and euro as of ladt night i remener hearing 12+ for eberyome but not hearing tjat anywhere. Everyone conserbative and i understand that but i tjght eben today runs were good

Sorry for the typing

Still think I95 is in a good spot. Track will wiggle for the next 36 hours

skinsfan1177 wrote:Wasnt the gfs and euro as of ladt night i remener hearing 12+ for eberyome but not hearing tjat anywhere. Everyone conserbative and i understand that but i tjght eben today runs were good

Skins they are still good with the GFS leading the way - just in a holding pattern right now as I see it then tonight into tomorrow we get our game faces on and start. The possibility is there for foot area wide LHV, NNJ, EPA and to CNJ - things will waffle a bit in each model run and once we get to tonight's 0Z and tomorrow 6,12Z runs then it is lock and load time - I am basically there with the consistency of the GFS - waffle here waffle there (Jesus I feel like I am at the Shore making waffles and ice cream - ACE!!) but overall showing a good thumping of snow.

My local Met just said 6-9" for Sunday into Monday in my area. He said the storm is moving very fast.
Also said storm is tracking way to the South of us.
He seems to more than this board and even the NWS pretty impressive wouldn't you say.
This is why these local Mets drive me BONKERS !

Mugs, can I get waffle with vanilla ice cream please.  

Also hearing start time is later and ends sooner ugh

It's wild, on satellite this thing looks like a hurricane is heading toward SoCal.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040

skins that was the worst typing ive ever seen lol, mobile? LOL, I assumed it was wobble/waffle time so I will hang in there till tonight/tomorrow. Good thing I have other stuff to keep me busy lol.