March 17th-18th Storm Potential Discussion

GFS takes a sudden turn to CMC/NAM/DGEX, however one run isnt changing my cautious approach to this storm.

GFS is a massive change but only one run let's hope it holds

Ahhh the Luck of the Irish my good lads and she be a comin' for Erin go Bragh!!!

I'm cooking up a home made corned beef. Got some homemade baileys made with good Jameson. The quiet man had to be on tv somewhere. I really hope old man winter has one last gift for us.

As we've experienced in the last few weeks maybe we dont want all of the models agreeing 4 days out

The biggest thing to take from the GFS is it positions the PV further east, and it ejects the energy out of the SW instead of spliting it and holding it back. Like everyone said only one run so dont get too excited.

The NAM even though you cant look much beyond 48 hrs you can take away that it too is looking like it wants to eject most if not all of the energy in the SW between hrs 48-60 and beyond. A very important trend hopefully.

Even if the Euro comes back today with a hit dont get overly excited.

The cautious optimism continues from this guy with dreams of snow angels   

Grselig wrote:I'm cooking up a home made corned beef.    Got some homemade baileys made with good Jameson.   The quiet man had to be on tv somewhere.    I really hope old man winter has one last gift for us.  

Now THAT, Grselig, is the PROPER way to celebrate good ole Saint Pat's Day.Great food and booze.Yep, The Quiet Man is an absolute must.TCM or AMC should be running it.

Brings back great memories of the 70's when one of my frat bro's Dad, Bart Finnegan ran 'Bart Finnegans Sha Tee Tavern" in Bergenfield NJ.Getting wasted on green beer, shots of Jameson.Don't know how I ever drove home, but those days cops gave a lot of slack.

Have a great day ,Grselig!

The GFS made a major cave toward the Canadian model in showing a major snowstorm for Monday. Details to come later on.

docstox12 wrote:

Grselig wrote:I'm cooking up a home made corned beef.    Got some homemade baileys made with good Jameson.   The quiet man had to be on tv somewhere.    I really hope old man winter has one last gift for us.  

Now THAT, Grselig, is the PROPER way to celebrate good ole Saint Pat's Day.Great food and booze.Yep, The Quiet Man is an absolute must.TCM or AMC should be running it.

Brings back great memories of the 70's when one of my frat bro's Dad, Bart Finnegan ran 'Bart Finnegans Sha Tee Tavern" in Bergenfield NJ.Getting wasted on green beer, shots of Jameson.Don't know how I ever drove home, but those days cops gave a lot of slack.

Have a great day ,Grselig!

Thanks. I turn 44 on Saturday so that is the way to celebrate. Cautious optimism for the storm. 25 years ago me and my buddies hung out at the pool hall in Bergenfield. I hear it's gone now

Agree with cautious optimism. Still too far in the future, tomorrow's and beyond runs are more important as we hone in on that under 72 hours range.

FWIW the CMC came significantly south of it's 0z run, instead of an I-95 NW big storm it's more a DC to SNJ type deal. Still good to see the storm there but just goes to show we don't have consistency and we wont until the next few days.

Happy Birthday on Sat. Grselig! Hoping for that last big snow for winter to have a great parting shot.Frank and Doc above see some cause for optimism while Tom has some cautious optimism.Could happen.

Yep, knew that pool hall well,played there some times years ago. You drove past the Teaneck Armory heading towards Dumont and hung a left at a light.Might have even been around the time 25 years ago but probably before. Another Bergen County institution bites the dust.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the CMC came significantly south of it's 0z run, instead of an I-95 NW big storm it's more a DC to SNJ type deal. Still good to see the storm there but just goes to show we don't have consistency and we wont until the next few days.

Must be reading the PV to push it down again like last week.

Hearing GEFS is north and wetter

docstox12 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the CMC came significantly south of it's 0z run, instead of an I-95 NW big storm it's more a DC to SNJ type deal. Still good to see the storm there but just goes to show we don't have consistency and we wont until the next few days.

Must be reading the PV to push it down again like last week.

Yep, that's been screwing us lately, too far south, too far north, perhaps too far south again.

I think Doc had that possible scenario in his model explanation to open this thread.Got to assume this will be a factor in possibly screwing us south, but the PV could move into a better position to help us out.Jury still out.

docstox12 wrote:I think Doc had that possible scenario in his model explanation to open this thread.Got to assume this will be a factor in possibly screwing us south, but the PV could move into a better position to help us out.Jury still out.

I'm waiting on GEFS to give me a look into more possible solutions, theoretically we want to see cutters as options too so the mid-ground would be a hit, we'll see.

We are always on the edge

NjWeatherGuy wrote:

docstox12 wrote:I think Doc had that possible scenario in his model explanation to open this thread.Got to assume this will be a factor in possibly screwing us south, but the PV could move into a better position to help us out.Jury still out.

I'm waiting on GEFS to give me a look into more possible solutions, theoretically we want to see cutters as options too so the mid-ground would be a hit, we'll see.

climatology wouldn't the PV be more likely to be north than south? I know the storm on march 3rd the PV was way south but isn't that unusual? we are in mid to late march. and NJ I agree I hope their is a big spread in the ensembles. yesterdays ensembles showed only one or two hits for us.

docstox12 wrote:

Grselig wrote:I'm cooking up a home made corned beef.    Got some homemade baileys made with good Jameson.   The quiet man had to be on tv somewhere.    I really hope old man winter has one last gift for us.  

Now THAT, Grselig, is the PROPER way to celebrate good ole Saint Pat's Day.Great food and booze.Yep, The Quiet Man is an absolute must.TCM or AMC should be running it.

Brings back great memories of the 70's when one of my frat bro's Dad, Bart Finnegan ran 'Bart Finnegans Sha Tee Tavern" in Bergenfield NJ.Getting wasted on green beer, shots of Jameson.Don't know how I ever drove home, but those days cops gave a lot of slack.

Have a great day ,Grselig!

DOC,

The cops drove you home back then in your car and said have a good night after walking or carrying you to your door - they were half in the bag too on St. Pat's Day - looking forward to me Homemade Bailey's, Corned beef and cabbage, red potatoes with goulden's mnustard and Guinness or Harp beer to wash it down.

Hope this storm comes to fruition so I can sleep it off on Monday cause we gonna be a celebratin' Sunday!!

By 0Z or 6Z tomorrow hopefully we start to have continuity with 2 out of 3 or 4 for this one with the Euro, CMC, Ukie and the GFS models showing this. We have something to track but will it be ours is the question? I need to see SROC in skivees making a snow angel in 8" of white bliss - then KSW will have fulfillment.

Who am I kiddin'??

"Canadian ensembles are north with tons of precipitation. 1"+ liquid for anybody NYC southward."

NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the CMC came significantly south of it's 0z run, instead of an I-95 NW big storm it's more a DC to SNJ type deal. Still good to see the storm there but just goes to show we don't have consistency and we wont until the next few days.

yes the storm came south but it is still a nice track. near or inside the benchmark. also there looks to be two low pressures one sunday night- Monday and another one Tuesday. am I correct and is this possible. looks like both CMC and GFS has them. NWS said that 2 low pressures hitting us is an outlier.
00Z CMC KEEPS THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE...AND
THEN A SECONDARY LOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION
IS AN OUTLIER.

CMC ensembles are North as well as GEFS. Hope tyis trend continues and being cautiously optimistic  

algae888 wrote:

NjWeatherGuy wrote:FWIW the CMC came significantly south of it's 0z run, instead of an I-95 NW big storm it's more a DC to SNJ type deal. Still good to see the storm there but just goes to show we don't have consistency and we wont until the next few days.

yes the storm came south but it is still a nice track. near or inside the benchmark. also there looks to be two low pressures one sunday night- Monday and another one Tuesday. am I correct and is this possible. looks like both CMC and GFS has them. NWS said that 2 low pressures hitting us is an outlier.
00Z CMC KEEPS THE PRIMARY LOW OFFSHORE...AND
THEN A SECONDARY LOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT ON TUESDAY. THIS SOLUTION
IS AN OUTLIER.

It's actually outside the benchmark. Not that it means much at this point.

Just woke up. I always know something's going on when a new thread already has 4 pages. I've felt good about this threat since Tues night. I don't know why. I'll proceed with caution, but I was reading a write up last night about how this IS a favorable setup for us, more so than the last two busts. Let's hope winter can give us the last harrah we deserve!

The EURO is coming in significantly better as well it seems. Consolidating energy more so than 00z and showing elongated PV...

Still not great for our area, doesn't get much precip in here. But I gotta say as far as model ranges are concerned, the euro is in the timeframe of losing a lot of its credibility whereas CMC & GFS (and of course NAM as we get closer) begin taking the cake. We'll see.