NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0

+29
Dtone
Vinnydula
Isotherm
sroc4
HectorO
mako460
HeresL
devsman
Snow88
nutleyblizzard
Analog96
oldtimer
nofoboater
GreyBeard
essexcountypete
skinsfan1177
algae888
Math23x7
Dunnzoo
jmanley32
SoulSingMG
pdubz
docstox12
aiannone
amugs
CPcantmeasuresnow
Quietace
NjWeatherGuy
Frank_Wx
33 posters

Page 2 of 32 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 17 ... 32  Next

Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:43 am

Yea Jmanley, saw that 6z run, GFS definately playing april fools here
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Gfs_ms10

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!

This will either be an unprecedented April blizzard in Ocean City Maryland, and graze the CNJ coast and LI with minor to moderate snow, or a normal April blizzard in Upstate NY and NE.

I guarantee this will not bring snow to NYC or any suburbs north and west of NYC. Of that I am 100% certain.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6662
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 100
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by SoulSingMG Tue Apr 01, 2014 7:34 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Gfs_ms10

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!

This will either be an unprecedented April blizzard in Ocean City Maryland, and graze the CNJ coast and LI with minor to moderate snow, or a normal April blizzard in Upstate NY and NE.

I guarantee this will not bring snow to NYC or any suburbs north and west of NYC. Of that I am 100% certain.

DC/BALT poised to get 22" snow out of this, no doubt. NYC, a cold drizzle and dense fog.
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2787
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Wed Apr 02, 2014 11:38 pm

Storm was gone last time I checked. Thats one heck of a model pic though!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:35 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Storm was gone last time I checked.  Thats one heck of a model pic though!

It's not gone. It's just the primary is cutting way west. We will still be looking at rain Monday afternoon through the night. Possibly around an inch.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:22 am

Yea it now looks the storm will track further west and be in the 990s, luckily with this track I dont expect much more than an inch or so. Def not the 3-4 from last storm.
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Apr 03, 2014 1:11 pm

After the next large storm (not the frontal passage and rain from the storm around tomorrow, the apps runner afterward) there will be a short trough with below normal temps and it will be a bit chilly but not very cold, after this GFS shows the vortex retreating well into Canada and I mean WELL into Canada, here is hr 180 (before it loses resolution)

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 4_3gfs10

GFS has our first 75 towards the end of the period, at this point I am 100% confident any wintry precip is done for the entire viewing area.

NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Apr 04, 2014 6:56 pm

Couple notes:

1. It will be a great weekend with abundant sunshine and temps in the upper 50's to low 60's. Mid-60's certainly possible as well.

2. Rain returns Monday evening and will be out of here by early Tuesday morning, perhaps 5amish. More rain is expected that time than what we saw today, possibly around .75-1.00 inches. This is associated with a strong low pressure to our west with a warm and possibly a secondary low developing over NJ. It won't be as big a deal as the storm last week, which brought 3-4 inch rain amounts.

3. Tuesday-Wednesday looks like below normal temp. departure days possibly not getting out of the 40's.

4. Thursday into next weekend temps moderate and have potential to get to near 70 degrees and it looks dry for now. If anything, Friday could see some showers.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 20070
Reputation : 312
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 29
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Apr 04, 2014 7:40 pm

The storm next week is going to be heavy rain. It was a coastal but trended to an apps runner type of deal and the models have solidified at this solution. NAM has some aggressive looking convection feeding into the comma head and we're right under the cusp of the main precip shield and the trailing cold front or at least that is how it appears now. Track will certainly wiggle in the next 72hrs, but, if it stays the same or trends slightly west I wouldn't rule out thunder or lightning. Despite instability indices being marginal at best the storm is of decent strength and tapping a good amount of moisture which is why I keep T-storms and heavy rain in the forecast at this time. Will keep you updated if anyone even cares.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 4_4nam10
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by Dunnzoo Fri Apr 04, 2014 10:29 pm

I care Tom....I am friends with our town OEM and he relies on me for rain info since we have a brook that runs through town that tends to flood....I always like watching heavy rain and thunderstorms!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4404
Reputation : 67
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 59
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:30 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Noaad2

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:32 pm

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 D13_fill

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Sun Apr 06, 2014 9:33 pm

Looks like a good soaking rain a coming!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 4:59 pm

Umm, did we end winter too early, albeit west of area but dang, way far out but April 17-18th! Even to see this is crazy. And purely for eye candy, doubtful will verify I'd probably win powerball before this and I dont play lol.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_11



jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:03 pm

Look at the temps, is the Euro going bonkers?

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf_12
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:08 pm

CMC has something similar, both have a coastal, and cold air coming in, just crazy, days before into 60s and 70s.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:10 pm

More cold heavy rain, yuck! Not looking forward to tomorrow morning.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:30 pm

CMC, thats alot of precip for 10 days, 6-7 inches, looks to be all rain, bulk comes with the same coastal the euro shows snow. Will have to watch this as a potentially big storm, rain or snow. Probably rain. Flooding go become a concern as that would be what like 10-13 inches of rain for the month.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Cmc_to10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:37 pm

Jman - both models are on crack for that long range - if this was Jan or Feb okay. Retarded - wait till that one hits facebook!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Apr 07, 2014 5:47 pm

@amugs wrote:Jman - both models are on crack for that long range - if this was Jan or Feb okay. Retarded - wait  till that one hits facebook!

lol
NjWeatherGuy
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4100
Reputation : 28
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:00 pm

Mugs, NJ yeah I know don't think I was falling for it, just was really like wha? I wont be a contributing factor on FB you can be sure of that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Mon Apr 07, 2014 7:04 pm

Oh, well you know who, JB was the one that made a comment about it that got me cuious since I have not been keeping up with the models since its been quiet. He said he cannot post images due to their copyrights (umm yes he can he just doesn't want too lol) however a few tweets earlier he posted a snow map lol, maybe we will have a coastal storm next week but this kinda thing is WAY out there in lala land (But anything is possible I guess, just not probable).
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:01 am

You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out!  NOW wait till this hits facebook!  Holy crap, just imagine!  Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east.  30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Holy_e10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by amugs Tue Apr 08, 2014 7:41 am

 lol! 
@jmanley32 wrote:You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out!  NOW wait till this hits facebook!  Holy crap, just imagine!  Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east.  30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Holy_e10

They should be shot for even allowing this nonsense - do you know what type of storm dynamics we would need for such a storm - I am not even talking about April!!

The EURO I hanging out in that garage in Denver again like Upton was at times this winter -HAHAHA!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 12434
Reputation : 211
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 51
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 08, 2014 9:06 am

mugs, Bastardi, thinks this is a concern, and albeit there is going to be a cold drop but this looks way to nuts for mid april.  No actually I have no clue as to what we would need for a 20-40 inche snowstorm in mid april is that even possible?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 18384
Reputation : 105
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 - Page 2 Empty Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 32 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 17 ... 32  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum