Re: Official Long Range Thread 3.0

[jmanley32]

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Snow is getting exponentially more rare each passing day, while I am seeing the large storm to me I think itll just be a big windy rainstorm if it does happen with maybe a narrow band of snow on the NW flank especially in higher elevations.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Yea Jmanley, saw that 6z run, GFS definately playing april fools here

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!

This will either be an unprecedented April blizzard in Ocean City Maryland, and graze the CNJ coast and LI with minor to moderate snow, or a normal April blizzard in Upstate NY and NE.

I guarantee this will not bring snow to NYC or any suburbs north and west of NYC. Of that I am 100% certain.

[SoulSingMG]

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!

This will either be an unprecedented April blizzard in Ocean City Maryland, and graze the CNJ coast and LI with minor to moderate snow, or a normal April blizzard in Upstate NY and NE.

I guarantee this will not bring snow to NYC or any suburbs north and west of NYC. Of that I am 100% certain.

DC/BALT poised to get 22" snow out of this, no doubt. NYC, a cold drizzle and dense fog.

[jmanley32]

Storm was gone last time I checked. Thats one heck of a model pic though!

[Frank_Wx]

Storm was gone last time I checked.  Thats one heck of a model pic though!

It's not gone. It's just the primary is cutting way west. We will still be looking at rain Monday afternoon through the night. Possibly around an inch.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Yea it now looks the storm will track further west and be in the 990s, luckily with this track I dont expect much more than an inch or so. Def not the 3-4 from last storm.

[NjWeatherGuy]

After the next large storm (not the frontal passage and rain from the storm around tomorrow, the apps runner afterward) there will be a short trough with below normal temps and it will be a bit chilly but not very cold, after this GFS shows the vortex retreating well into Canada and I mean WELL into Canada, here is hr 180 (before it loses resolution)



GFS has our first 75 towards the end of the period, at this point I am 100% confident any wintry precip is done for the entire viewing area.

[Frank_Wx]

Couple notes:

1. It will be a great weekend with abundant sunshine and temps in the upper 50's to low 60's. Mid-60's certainly possible as well.

2. Rain returns Monday evening and will be out of here by early Tuesday morning, perhaps 5amish. More rain is expected that time than what we saw today, possibly around .75-1.00 inches. This is associated with a strong low pressure to our west with a warm and possibly a secondary low developing over NJ. It won't be as big a deal as the storm last week, which brought 3-4 inch rain amounts.

3. Tuesday-Wednesday looks like below normal temp. departure days possibly not getting out of the 40's.

4. Thursday into next weekend temps moderate and have potential to get to near 70 degrees and it looks dry for now. If anything, Friday could see some showers.

[NjWeatherGuy]

The storm next week is going to be heavy rain. It was a coastal but trended to an apps runner type of deal and the models have solidified at this solution. NAM has some aggressive looking convection feeding into the comma head and we're right under the cusp of the main precip shield and the trailing cold front or at least that is how it appears now. Track will certainly wiggle in the next 72hrs, but, if it stays the same or trends slightly west I wouldn't rule out thunder or lightning. Despite instability indices being marginal at best the storm is of decent strength and tapping a good amount of moisture which is why I keep T-storms and heavy rain in the forecast at this time. Will keep you updated if anyone even cares.

[Dunnzoo]

I care Tom....I am friends with our town OEM and he relies on me for rain info since we have a brook that runs through town that tends to flood....I always like watching heavy rain and thunderstorms!

[amugs]

[amugs]

[amugs]

Looks like a good soaking rain a coming!

[jmanley32]

Umm, did we end winter too early, albeit west of area but dang, way far out but April 17-18th! Even to see this is crazy. And purely for eye candy, doubtful will verify I'd probably win powerball before this and I dont play lol.

[jmanley32]

Look at the temps, is the Euro going bonkers?

[jmanley32]

CMC has something similar, both have a coastal, and cold air coming in, just crazy, days before into 60s and 70s.

[jmanley32]

More cold heavy rain, yuck! Not looking forward to tomorrow morning.

[jmanley32]

CMC, thats alot of precip for 10 days, 6-7 inches, looks to be all rain, bulk comes with the same coastal the euro shows snow. Will have to watch this as a potentially big storm, rain or snow. Probably rain. Flooding go become a concern as that would be what like 10-13 inches of rain for the month.

[amugs]

Jman - both models are on crack for that long range - if this was Jan or Feb okay. Retarded - wait till that one hits facebook!

[NjWeatherGuy]

Jman - both models are on crack for that long range - if this was Jan or Feb okay. Retarded - wait  till that one hits facebook!

lol

[jmanley32]

Mugs, NJ yeah I know don't think I was falling for it, just was really like wha? I wont be a contributing factor on FB you can be sure of that.

[jmanley32]

Oh, well you know who, JB was the one that made a comment about it that got me cuious since I have not been keeping up with the models since its been quiet. He said he cannot post images due to their copyrights (umm yes he can he just doesn't want too lol) however a few tweets earlier he posted a snow map lol, maybe we will have a coastal storm next week but this kinda thing is WAY out there in lala land (But anything is possible I guess, just not probable).

[jmanley32]

You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out!  NOW wait till this hits facebook!  Holy crap, just imagine!  Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east.  30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.

[amugs]

  

You guys thought the Euro was bonkers yesterday check this out!  NOW wait till this hits facebook!  Holy crap, just imagine!  Would be a record I imagine, Euro has a low stalling off coast and then moving due east.  30-40 inches, in April yeah ok, if this verified I would have to come up with something even more nutty to do than make snow angels in my jockeys lol.

They should be shot for even allowing this nonsense - do you know what type of storm dynamics we would need for such a storm - I am not even talking about April!!

The EURO I hanging out in that garage in Denver again like Upton was at times this winter -HAHAHA!

[jmanley32]

mugs, Bastardi, thinks this is a concern, and albeit there is going to be a cold drop but this looks way to nuts for mid april.  No actually I have no clue as to what we would need for a 20-40 inche snowstorm in mid april is that even possible?

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