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Official Long Range Thread 3.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:25 pm

March is coming to an end and it has been a frustrating month for snow lovers. We have missed out on a hand full of storms that could have potentially brought us snow, especially since the cold air was in place at the time. This has been a good winter season, but it had the potential to be great if it were not for how the way March turned out.

As we move forward, the pattern is definitely changing and the sustained -EPO is breaking down which means we will see less and less cold air intrusions. I think our "last" big trough that will bring down impressive cold air will be between April 4th-7th

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_35

The GEFS do show this along with some higher heights in eastern Canada. Models are showing a cut-off low around this time frame which could potentially lead to some snow for our area. This will be monitored on my end and I will create a new thread if it becomes interesting. My gut tells me this will be a non-event due to the progressive flow, but we'll see.

Beyond that, it should begin to warm-up by mid-April with more warmer days than colder ones. I am declaring winter officially over by mid-April with no more snow chances, besides New England and perhaps areas north of the HV. But no one on this board is really from those areas, so I am declaring winter over probably around the 8th of April. Usually I declare winter over by now, but it has been a cold winter and anytime you have cold temps. hanging around there always exists the threat for snow.

I still think April will feature below normal temps for the most part and that may even continue into May. But daily averages will begin to climb into the 60's and then we can forget about the winter season until next year.

Notable dates:

2014 Hurricane Outlook to be released June 1st. I will not be doing a summer outlook this year and may not even do a winter outlook next year. The seasonal outlooks take a lot of time and usually require me to start a month before release date, and I simply do not have the time anymore.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Aug 26, 2014 9:27 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:25 pm

CMC has another closed low around the end of the first week of April.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 Lrcmc11

EURO has a traditional low attached to a frontal boundary that cuts up and puts us in the warm and much less QPF sector.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:42 pm

Yea, that's the time period to watch next Tom

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:32 pm

Lol models show the NAO going negative starting next week, I cant, I just cant. The NAO has been positive the entire winter besides early January when it was negative. What great timing, this could mean a nasty spring noreaster season with the GFS/Foreign models agreeing on several potential closed lows affecting the region.
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Post by Quietace Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:33 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Lol models show the NAO going negative starting next week, I cant, I just cant. The NAO has been positive the entire winter besides early January when it was negative. What great timing, this could mean a nasty spring noreaster season with the GFS/Foreign models agreeing on several potential closed lows affecting the region.
April showers mean May flowers......maybe lol

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:36 pm

@Quietace wrote:
@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Lol models show the NAO going negative starting next week, I cant, I just cant. The NAO has been positive the entire winter besides early January when it was neutral. What great timing, this could mean a nasty spring noreaster season with the GFS/Foreign models agreeing on several potential closed lows affecting the region.
April showers mean May flowers......maybe lol
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:37 pm

Oops, tried revising my post but for some reason posted twice, NAO was neutral in early January not negative. Honestly cant remember the last time it was truly negative which is a miracle we all for the most part have over 60" of snow, musta been the -EPO
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Mar 27, 2014 7:53 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Lol models show the NAO going negative starting next week, I cant, I just cant. The NAO has been positive the entire winter besides early January when it was negative. What great timing, this could mean a nasty spring noreaster season with the GFS/Foreign models agreeing on several potential closed lows affecting the region.

The final kick in the ass, from a pattern that has done everything in its power the last month and a half to frustrate and abuse us.
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Post by amugs Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:16 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Lol models show the NAO going negative starting next week, I cant, I just cant. The NAO has been positive the entire winter besides early January when it was negative. What great timing, this could mean a nasty spring noreaster season with the GFS/Foreign models agreeing on several potential closed lows affecting the region.
Tom, 

I know the same sentiment here what BS and I said this a few days ago. Where the hell was this the last 8 weeks!! So frickin frustrating but tracking Nor 'Easters are fun IMO. Only time will tell. 

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Post by aiannone Thu Mar 27, 2014 8:18 pm

I posted the videos from my storm chase in it's own topic!
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Post by docstox12 Fri Mar 28, 2014 7:14 am

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:Oops, tried revising my post but for some reason posted twice, NAO was neutral in early January not negative. Honestly cant remember the last time it was truly negative which is a miracle we all for the most part have over 60" of snow, musta been the -EPO

That is so true about that poor NAO all winter.It's a miracle I got 62 inches of snow.Let's hope the NAO is solidly negative and stays there from Dec. 1st this year through the winter.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Fri Mar 28, 2014 4:35 pm

LOL CMC still has a rain to snowstorm around April 5th.

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 3_28cm10

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 3_28cm11

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Mar 29, 2014 8:56 am

GFS tries to bring the cold back. NOoooooo
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Post by pdubz Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:07 pm

let it snow! just one more time
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 31, 2014 2:29 pm

JB tweeted about a triple phase storm on E coast around April 10.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:04 pm

CMC lost the ridiculous April 10th blizzard, and soul, come on, there is no arguing against that guy is a joke, remember he was harping the west trend for the last storm to the bitter end when it didnt trend AT ALL, not to mention the 2 early March misses he was confident would trend north. Saying he thinks there will be a triple phased snowstorm (very rare) near mid April is just ridiculous.
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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:26 pm

@NjWeatherGuy wrote:CMC lost the ridiculous April 10th blizzard, and soul, come on, there is no arguing against that guy is a joke, remember he was harping the west trend for the last storm to the bitter end when it didnt trend AT ALL, not to mention the 2 early March misses he was confident would trend north. Saying he thinks there will be a triple phased snowstorm (very rare) near mid April is just ridiculous.

I didn't say he said 'snowstorm'...I said he said 'triple phase storm'...

I think YOU are hoping for that last horrah in April! ;-) :-P
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Mar 31, 2014 6:29 pm

Obviously he is insinuating snowstorm, a storm that powerful would easily manufacture its own and tap into cold air.
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Post by jmanley32 Mon Mar 31, 2014 10:48 pm

Soul where did you see this this is the only tweet I saw from him and he is talking about the MJO going into phase 3. I do not think that means a3 phased storm does it?

JB: Strong MJO Phase 3 Set up monster amplification next week,rivaling major buckling Apr 7-9 2007! Welcome back MJO!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:36 am

Besides some rain on Friday into Saturday morning, it should be a nice weekend. Then watching the potential for a Nor'easter next week. Expected to be rain only.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Apr 01, 2014 12:40 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 Gfs_z500a_namer_31

The GFS for the potential coastal storm around the 8th next week shows some positive heights over Greenland with a very impressive ridge spike out west. Hence the amplification of the eastern trough and strong signal for a potent storm. Initial thoughts are all rain for our area at this moment.

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Post by docstox12 Tue Apr 01, 2014 4:41 am

Well, we're sure making up for that dry six weeks mid Feb through March.Talk about April showers.Where was all this precip when we needed it,LOL!
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Apr 01, 2014 5:13 am

**POTENT STORM SIGNAL**

And as far as I'm concerned, after seeing LI's little stunt early Monday, my head is UP.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:41 am

Official Long Range Thread 3.0 Gfs_ms10

WOW, now thats a huge storm size wise!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Apr 01, 2014 8:42 am

Snow is getting exponentially more rare each passing day, while I am seeing the large storm to me I think itll just be a big windy rainstorm if it does happen with maybe a narrow band of snow on the NW flank especially in higher elevations.
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