Re: September 2014 Observations and Discussion

by **sroc4** Tue Sep 23, 2014 7:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:And while most of us agree the pattern is too progressive, the NAM and GFS come in with a soaker of 1-2+ inches of rain.

I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if this is just a myth or a trend.

So I had a chance to really look more closely at this set up this morning, and it does appear that thee is more than meets the eye here with there being potential for this to overcome a pos NAO. Some of us may see a dcent rainfall (SNJ, immediate coastline, and LI) I don't have time this morning to write up my thoughts in depth. HOWEVER; keep March 3rd 2014 in mind. If you recall a system to our south was progged to move up the coast and give us a decent snow storm, but the strong arctic HP suppressed the sh-- out of it. A strong banana ridge is trying to buil;d over the top of the country as a potent trough comes onshore over the west coast leading to a strong surface HP building into the NE as this system heads up the coast. Of course this set up is different that last March as the HP is not a cold source HP but the building HP may still lead to suppression domination right as this baby passes the Delmarva leading to convergence in the mid nd upper levels on the north side of the system causing a sharp cutoff to the moisture. (March 3rd 2014 how I hate you) There are a few key pieces of upper level energy that will play a key and of course timing of all said pieces is key. I will try to most some maps and more in depth after 12z if I have time.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:19 am

SNOW MAN wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Mugs. The Doc usually gives me 2 shots in two different spots on my shoulder. Unfortunately this is the fourth set of shots I've had since April. They only seem to last 3-4 weeks at most. He(Doc) really wants me to have surgery asap, but I have to put the required hours in at my job to go back out and have it done. Otherwise it's termination for me. I will try to post pictures of the bears if I can figure out how to do so. I'm not a real techie kind of person. I just know the very basics. In my area their saying it will go down into the low 40's tonight. I'll keep you posted.

Sorry to hear. They don't offer disability?

We get our disability through the state of NJ. which gives us 6 months at 60% of your pay. Our company then gives us 18 months of long term disability at 60% of your pay. So you would get a total of 2 years. But all of that has changed since the company hired a new lawyer. The new policy is you get 6 months of state disability and then after that they terminate you (which NJ state law says they can do) and then they give you long term disability for another 18 months, but they also terminate your medical benefits so you have no insurance to cover your medical bills. God for bid your fighting a disease like cancer, how would you pay the astronomical medical bills. When our union asked him (the lawyer) why would they do something like this, his answer was because we can. The sad part is after you recover from whatever illness you've had, your still out of a job. We're trying to see if their willing to come up with another option, but so far their sticking to their guns.

Snowy,

That just sucks! This is why there is (and I do not want to start a fight here or get political) a great divide occurring between the management/owners and workers in this country - I can give you a 100 references for such in my job, friends and family. The old because we canto you is as old as dirt on this planet. We work our butts off and then when in time of need what happens - see you later - we are a number in their eyes and I have had this conversation (though much more heated) with bosses before. Hang in there and I hope and pray for the best for you.

Scott,

I totally concur with your last posting about the +NAO - if it slides east which the models are saying so that will allow the coastal to move further North and somewhat west since the kicker in the jet (Midwest) is progged to weaken. If these pieces of the puzzle happen then the models from last night GGEM, NAM, GFS will be spot on - reminiscent of the Jan 3 and 22nd snowstorms ehh?? 6Z euro has the storm more north and west as well but drier than the other models just mentioned.

Okay 41.2* this morning - house was at 66* - thanks god my wife earned a job teaching again (went back) or else she would have the heat on 70*!!

HAPPY FALL everyone and this board will start to come alive with this possible storm - finally something to track and discuss weather wise. If it serves then the CMC pulled another coup - had this last wed for this week - a squirrel will get a nut every now and then as well.

Janet your right, we get drizzle -.12" of rain while Ace,Skins and Tom (Isotherm) get nailed (2" and winds 30+ IMO) - you watch.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:21 am

6Z GFS

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_neus_9

6Z Euro

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Post-910-0-26887900-1411473774

Who will win the show on this one????

by **Frank_Wx** Tue Sep 23, 2014 8:35 am

SNOW MAN wrote:I have a question for anyone on the board. Will this possible rain event be out of our area Thursday morning or will it last into Thursday night ? I have an appointment at 8:00am Friday morning for my car at the dealer and I need nice dry roads to get it there. Thanks. It was 42* with clear skies and calm winds when I left home for work at 3:00am.

The models have the rain ending by 2-3am Friday, so the roads may a little wet in the morning but at least it's not raining. There still remains a good chance this system may not effect us at all, especially you since you live in NEPA. I don't expect you to get more then half an inch of rain.

The 00z EURO last night came in with a hit but with a weak storm, probably .50-1.00 inches of rain.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:I have a question for anyone on the board. Will this possible rain event be out of our area Thursday morning or will it last into Thursday night ? I have an appointment at 8:00am Friday morning for my car at the dealer and I need nice dry roads to get it there. Thanks. It was 42* with clear skies and calm winds when I left home for work at 3:00am.

The models have the rain ending by 2-3am Friday, so the roads may a little wet in the morning but at least it's not raining. There still remains a good chance this system may not effect us at all, especially you since you live in NEPA. I don't expect you to get more then half an inch of rain.

The 00z EURO last night came in with a hit but with a weak storm, probably .50-1.00 inches of rain.

Thanks Frank. I know we need the rain, but I was hoping it would either miss us or end earlier in the day on Thursday. I may have to re-schedule my appointment. UGH !

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Sep 23, 2014 9:15 am

amugs wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:Good morning Mugs. The Doc usually gives me 2 shots in two different spots on my shoulder. Unfortunately this is the fourth set of shots I've had since April. They only seem to last 3-4 weeks at most. He(Doc) really wants me to have surgery asap, but I have to put the required hours in at my job to go back out and have it done. Otherwise it's termination for me. I will try to post pictures of the bears if I can figure out how to do so. I'm not a real techie kind of person. I just know the very basics. In my area their saying it will go down into the low 40's tonight. I'll keep you posted.

Sorry to hear. They don't offer disability?

We get our disability through the state of NJ. which gives us 6 months at 60% of your pay. Our company then gives us 18 months of long term disability at 60% of your pay. So you would get a total of 2 years. But all of that has changed since the company hired a new lawyer. The new policy is you get 6 months of state disability and then after that they terminate you (which NJ state law says they can do) and then they give you long term disability for another 18 months, but they also terminate your medical benefits so you have no insurance to cover your medical bills. God for bid your fighting a disease like cancer, how would you pay the astronomical medical bills. When our union asked him (the lawyer) why would they do something like this, his answer was because we can. The sad part is after you recover from whatever illness you've had, your still out of a job. We're trying to see if their willing to come up with another option, but so far their sticking to their guns.

Snowy,

That just sucks! This is why there is (and I do not want to start a fight here or get political) a great divide occurring between the management/owners and workers in this country - I can give you a 100 references for such in my job, friends and family. The old because we canto you is as old as dirt on this planet. We work our butts off and then when in time of need what happens - see you later - we are a number in their eyes and I have had this conversation (though much more heated) with bosses before. Hang in there and I hope and pray for the best for you.

Scott,

I totally concur with your last posting about the +NAO - if it slides east which the models are saying so that will allow the coastal to move further North and somewhat west since the kicker in the jet (Midwest) is progged to weaken. If these pieces of the puzzle happen then the models from last night GGEM, NAM, GFS will be spot on - reminiscent of the Jan 3 and 22nd snowstorms ehh?? 6Z euro has the storm more north and west as well but drier than the other models just mentioned.

Okay 41.2* this morning - house was at 66* - thanks god my wife earned a job teaching again (went back) or else she would have the heat on 70*!!

HAPPY FALL everyone and this board will start to come alive with this possible storm - finally something to track and discuss weather wise. If it serves then the CMC pulled another coup - had this last wed for this week - a squirrel will get a nut every now and then as well.

Janet your right, we get drizzle -.12" of rain while Ace,Skins and Tom (Isotherm) get nailed (2" and winds 30+ IMO) - you watch

Thanks Mugs. Hopefully both sides will come to an agreement which will make everyone happy.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:03 am

hey snowman, sorry I didnt respond back, good to have ya back. I have to ask, what kind of car work are you having done that you need dry roads? Never had a issue bringing my car wet to the mechanic.

As for this possible storm I agree with sroc, however since Euro isnt all on board I am slightly hesitant. BUT Euro can be a last minute joiner. I also noted on 06z GFS that winds do pick up for coastal areas in the 20-35mph range for about 6 hours or maybe a bit more, 10m winds with higher gusts. I am interested to see what 12z says, we do need rain all the rivers here are bone dry, and look nasty as of course people throw garbage in there. 06z GFS came in with about 2 inches in some spots and LI could see more. But as posted above Euro came in very weak, Frank I honestly didnt even see 0.5-1 inch. But Man if we get the rain that is forecasted down wouth yikes, its looking like some places get 6-8 inches+. But it would have to stay moch closer and slower for that to happen, time will tell.

On another note thank you all for your condolences on my grandfather, I spent the weekend in VT (man did it get cold, high 30's at night). It was a simple wake on Friday night and military ceremony in the graveyard on Saturday, was simple just the way he wanted it, was a very humble man one thing I really admired about him among many other things. Now he lays next to his wife and hoping they are hand in hand again after 12 years of her passing.

by **algae888** Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:25 am

having trouble posting images can some one explain the process for me. tku

by **amugs** Tue Sep 23, 2014 10:59 am

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 NAM_QPFtotal_ne_f75

NAM just went bezerk with this storm - its' the NAM I know but the point and I do not have the time to make maps or analysis as Scott (God Bless and thanks as always for your in depth analysis's) the placement of the LP is basically the same on the NAM, EURO, GFS, CMC - only the UKIE is further S&E with this but still give SNJ and soaking/smack - they all have about a 1040 HP to the North sliding east.

Things are really getting interesting see what the 12z suite of the rest bring us then onto tonight's runs 00Z - IMO I do no trust the 18Z that much.

Check out the wave forecast - HANG TEN DUDES!!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=nj

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Page-96

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Page-96

by **amugs** Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:02 am

algae888 wrote:having trouble posting images can some one explain the process for me. tku

Al,

Copy the URL - say a picture and then when posting like I am click on the second icon over from the youtube (re/white)one to the left for a picture and paste the url into the url box and hit the insert button - do the same if for a link to a site - that icon for the link is next to the you tube icon - good luck paisan!

Mugs

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:07 am

Wow, wish I was a surfer or at least was able to get down to the ocean during the storm if it gets this strong. Them some big waves. The winds are up for a time too mugs on NAM, 30+ like you said possible. That is exactly what the farmers almanac called for on this day, however not a hurricane the way it turns inland i nthe midatlantic was exactly what they said for this week. Kinda interesting how they got that somewhat right. Said flooding rans and wind. The only probable wrong part was that it woulkd be a hurricane, but who knows stranger things have happened, the models keep pumping this up, if Euro locks on for 12z I would say its pretty much a go for at least some good rain and gusty winds (if thise 10m winds are 30mph sustained I could seee gusts to or close to wind warning criteria, at least advisory if of course it happens) thats just IMO I could be way off. Glad I am inside on Thursday doing paperwork.

by **HectorO** Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:48 am

45º this morning. Definitely woke me up.

by **SNOW MAN** Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:57 am

jmanley32 wrote:hey snowman, sorry I didnt respond back, good to have ya back. I have to ask, what kind of car work are you having done that you need dry roads? Never had a issue bringing my car wet to the mechanic.

As for this possible storm I agree with sroc, however since Euro isnt all on board I am slightly hesitant. BUT Euro can be a last minute joiner. I also noted on 06z GFS that winds do pick up for coastal areas in the 20-35mph range for about 6 hours or maybe a bit more, 10m winds with higher gusts. I am interested to see what 12z says, we do need rain all the rivers here are bone dry, and look nasty as of course people throw garbage in there. 06z GFS came in with about 2 inches in some spots and LI could see more. But as posted above Euro came in very weak, Frank I honestly didnt even see 0.5-1 inch. But Man if we get the rain that is forecasted down wouth yikes, its looking like some places get 6-8 inches+. But it would have to stay moch closer and slower for that to happen, time will tell.

On another note thank you all for your condolences on my grandfather, I spent the weekend in VT (man did it get cold, high 30's at night). It was a simple wake on Friday night and military ceremony in the graveyard on Saturday, was simple just the way he wanted it, was a very humble man one thing I really admired about him among many other things. Now he lays next to his wife and hoping they are hand in hand again after 12 years of her passing.

Jman, I can't remember if you two children or one, but I know you cherish them beyond words. I do not have any chidren, but to me my two modern day MUSCLE cars are my children. The one I'm taking in for service (leaking front strut with only 5321 miles Sad

) is my 2009 Hemi Orange Dodge Challenger SRT8. I saw this car on the cover of Hot Rod magazine in 2006 as a concept car that would be out in 2008. Being a car guy I said to my wife I've got to have one. This car has never been driven in any kind of bad weather since it was bought. It has to be perfect day for it to hit the road. The other car is a 2013 Kinetic blue Hot Wheels edition Camaro. So now you know why I'm hoping for a nice day Friday.
Also very sorry to hear about your Grandfather. I know when my father was laid to rest in 2008 in a military cemetary, the hardest part for me was when the bugle player played taps. Very emotional. Sad

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 23, 2014 12:10 pm

OMG yes the taps was hard, and they had a echo so it was played twice. Amazing trumpet players, I played for 10 years and played taps for a memorial march once, I was so nervous. Nice cars! I getcha now. You must have garages lol, I am stuck to lowly street parking which is one of the only reasons I do not like big snowstorms, but when the storms are coming or happening I forget all about the digging out lol. I have one daughter.

by **amugs** Tue Sep 23, 2014 2:32 pm

Euro says game on !! Looks like the gfs and comes a bit more west - the board will start to heat up now - thank you Lord I couldn't take another front and boring weather.

New thread to start for this IMO
September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f48

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ma_f48

by **algae888** Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:35 pm

September 2014 Observations and Discussion - Page 7 Stormtotalprecip

isn't the weather great. this came out of nowhere.

by **algae888** Tue Sep 23, 2014 3:38 pm

mugs thanks but it seems that pictures still aren't coming up.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:17 pm

al, we live near each other one day if I have time I could meetup with you somewhere with wi-fi and show u how.

by **jmanley32** Tue Sep 23, 2014 4:18 pm

And yes, I HOPE that we get lots of fun this winter with changes for the better with precip amounts within 12 hrs of a storm always gets me bouncing in my chair. LOL

by **SNOW MAN** Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:48 am

It was 48* with calm winds and clear skies when I left the house for work this morning. I'm hoping the rain tomorrow and tomorrow night at least misses my area. I know we need the rain, but just not tomorrow. I guess I better consider changing my appt. for my car. UGH ! Sad

by **amugs** Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:01 pm

74* out there with full sunshine - gorgeous fall day!

Boring stretch of weather coming up again - gfs and cmc say at the end of the cycle we go cold for Oct and wet (-EPO and +PNA come back), Euro says no "get outa here" - warm and dry - we'll see..stay the course.

by **jmanley32** Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:06 pm

Mugs check my long range posts LP on 12z Euro develops off coast, may need to be watched, another around day 10 too but that looks frontal.

by **HectorO** Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:07 pm

amugs wrote:74* out there with full sunshine - gorgeous fall day!

Boring stretch of weather coming up again - gfs and cmc say at the end of the cycle we go cold for Oct and wet (-EPO and +PNA come back), Euro says no "get outa here" - warm and dry - we'll see..stay the course.

When in doubt I always go euro. Looks like we'll go from warm to a drop of cold. Maybe somewhere in there fall will arrive

by **amugs** Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:41 pm

86.2* in my yard today - warmer than most summer 2014 days!!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1954.

by **Dunnzoo** Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:51 pm

amugs wrote:86.2* in my yard today - warmer than most summer 2014 days!!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1954.

I can't take Newark readings seriously anymore.....with all the air traffic and tarmac down there now compared to 1954.... would love to know exactly where the temp gauge is there...

by **HectorO** Sun Sep 28, 2014 6:55 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:86.2* in my yard today - warmer than most summer 2014 days!!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1954.

The temp is always like 5-10 degrees off. That's why nj 12 is always off. I feel like they're stationed in Newark. They messed up this morning. At 10am their forecast said Thursday would be 89 degrees. They messed up.

I can't take Newark readings seriously anymore.....with all the air traffic and tarmac down there now compared to 1954.... would love to know exactly where the temp gauge is there...

by **Dtone** Sun Sep 28, 2014 7:47 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
amugs wrote:86.2* in my yard today - warmer than most summer 2014 days!!

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
431 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1954.

I can't take Newark readings seriously anymore.....with all the air traffic and tarmac down there now compared to 1954.... would love to know exactly where the temp gauge is there...

You can see it on google maps in satellite view. It on a grassy area on the eastern edge of the airport, separated by a water/swampy strip from I 95.

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.6824745,-74.1692794,361m/data=!3m1!1e3

I reached 86* in my backyard. CPK and LGA reached 84. EWR has a warm bias but that's a typical temp spread esp with a S wind which the NJ side is a little more protected from.
Teterboro also was 87*. I also notice Newark cools off considerably more than the other highly urbanized stations so it kinda averages out.

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