September 2014 Observations and Discussion

algae888 wrote:weather fact: Pittsburg pa has not had a 90* day the whole summer and if they do not reach it on Friday its unlikely they reach it at all this year.

Wow. Wow. Wow.

algae888 wrote:although its very warm here, parts of central and northern Canada received their first SNOW yesterday and are forecast to get more sunday and Monday. next we will hear of snow in the northern rockies and upper Midwest. soon after that the great lakes will see flakes flying. then slowly progressing  to the Appalachians. then reaching our northern most suburbs as we anxiously await its arrival.

Must be waaaay north lol. In that case thought it's not too uncommon to see snow in far north Canada right now.

One can see the changes beginning to take place regarding seasonal progression on the GFS. Notice the 0c line at 850mb becoming more pronounced / further south in Canada, particularly by D10. Not too long and we'll soon see < 0c intrusions into our area, usually by early October. On one hand it's disappointing that summer's nearing its end, but on another the excitement starts to build for the ensuing winter, which, at this point, looks more favorable than not to be honest.

Isotherm wrote:One can see the changes beginning to take place regarding seasonal progression on the GFS. Notice the 0c line at 850mb becoming more pronounced / further south in Canada, particularly by D10. Not too long and we'll soon see < 0c intrusions into our area, usually by early October. On one hand it's disappointing that summer's nearing its end, but on another the excitement starts to build for the ensuing winter, which, at this point, looks more favorable than not to be honest.

Yea, many enthusiast ignore models in the summer because all they see is red lines everywhere signaling warm weather. It is always exicting seeing some blue lines up north, meaning the cold air is not too far away.

So Frank what are your thoughts on tomorrows severe weather outlook? HWO says for my area flash flooding and strong to damaging winds, is there going to be enough instability, its so nice today.

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Yea there is an approaching front that will raise heights enough to get temps near 90 degrees. It will depend on the cloud cover tomorrow morning on whether or not there will be enough instability present. The further north you are, the higher the odds of severe weather. You may be right on the cusp. NYC should be OK in my opinion.

00z GGEM has a rather short lived event



Some storms could be feisty. Do not think it will be a big deal.

Hazy sun 83* dew pt 73*
Last hot day of the year?
Last very warm night it seems for sure.

Seems the numbers are pretty ripe for some severe storms later and HRRR shows two rounds of storms in a small line in my area also pushing into NYC, fiesty as frank would say. As of now:

SCP:2
CAPE:1600
Shear:22 (thats too low)
Helecity (Low but not terribly low)
ML LCL: 970

And the sun is out here so those numbers could go up, maybe ill get lucky and a get a good boomber later.

Here we go!

Current Conditions here in Lyndonville, VT

Temp: 76.7*
DP: 65.8*
Wind: 5.4kts W

Waiting on storms here! Hopefully I can squeeze out a good cell even though it has been cloudy here all day. I will post any obs as needed.

Watch Issued:

Hey mets instability and primo levels for severe wx are increasing like crazy here my areas current CAPE etc conditions

SCP: 4 (WOW)
CAPE: 2351
Shear: 28 (still a bit low)
Helicity: 86 Getting up there
ML LCL: 1251

Storms starting to fire to the west.

Jeeze helicity is 111 in CT and SCP is 6, I have not seen it that high before.

Whats going to give us the upperhand is the scorching sun all day so far, no clouds. Its so hot out unbearably and feels the most unstable I have felt in a while with a stiff breeeze.

Storms starting to fire up now!!

Temp dropped to 63* here now. No thunder or lightening but its pouring right now!

You could see the rain shaft moving in from the NW

91* 65% humidity and dew 75* - cuba? panama or fla?

No kidding mugs feels like the middle of the summer of course yet again everything is above and south of me lol. Its just starting up though and NWS says its coming in two rounds.

60* here in Lyndonville, VT now. Its 81* about 50mi to my south. HELLO cold front lol!

pfff looks like its over absolutely nothing here. oh well not a huge shocker.

hey mugs, the black hole strikes again.....north and south are the hots spots AGAIN!

jmanley32 wrote:pfff looks like its over absolutely nothing here. oh well not a huge shocker.

Looks like a small cell is over you now, or at your doorstep. Will miss me by no more than a couple miles after some already missed just to the south.

I've been working all day but it looks like I just got a few showers. Another day of little rain. 

Next day of rain, and it may be very little, won't be until Friday or Thursday night. 

We are in a dry pattern right now. Sprinklers on...

Sun coming out again already hot again and now even more humid with the soaked roads, we got about a 10min tropical downpour. I see a line forming to the west with the front so we may not be done yet.

^^ I'm in yonkers it didn't rain

Dunnzoo wrote:hey mugs, the black hole strikes again.....north and south are the hots spots AGAIN!

Skunked again up here - my lawn is really hurting - do not like this dry pattern!