Re: Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:32 pm

LOL, I know a few people like that. Its the NAM, I am interested to see if the GFS stays the same or goes back to earlier runs. And of course the Euro if it trends west at all but I can't stay up for that. The wind should be pretty wild regardless of precip.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:35 pm

jmanley32 wrote:LOL, I know a few people like that. Its the NAM, I am interested to see if the GFS stays the same or goes back to earlier runs. And of course the Euro if it trends west at all but I can't stay up for that. The wind should be pretty wild regardless of precip.

Agreed

What's more depressing is I made a really cool looking Storm Mode banner in Photoshop which took me about 2 days, and my computer suddenly shut down and I lost it.

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:36 pm

Dang man, I am sorry can you do a system restore and try to retrieve it? Why did it not save?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Dang man, I am sorry can you do a system restore and try to retrieve it? Why did it not save?

I do not know. Oh well, I will get back to it on the weekend.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:40 pm

Alex, NAM misses VT.

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:42 pm

Yupp, a few students and I are sitting here watching frame by frame lol

by **algae888** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:43 pm

nam has three different lows. very unorganized for such a strong trough and s/w

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:44 pm

Frank what made the big change in the 18z? Wass it more blocking that slowed the first LP and allowed them both to phase?

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:45 pm

I think last year we really didn't do muvh with the nam outside of 36-48 hrs did we not?

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Frank what made the big change in the 18z? Wass it more blocking that slowed the first LP and allowed them both to phase?

Blocking is the same, there was just more interaction with the lead energy and the arctic vort. Think of it as friction. It enhanced precipitation along the coast.

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:03 pm

Well, now we wait for the 0z GFS!

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:28 pm

GFS is running now. out to hour 12

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:35 pm

If im not mistaking it looks like the 0z GFS closes off at h5 much earlier at hour 36 and has a negative tilt unlike the NAM

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:40 pm

Looks like its a miss, 18z was on its own.

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:40 pm

0z GFS is west of 0z NAM, but precip shield is a little weaker and a little east of 18z GFS

by **jmanley32** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:41 pm

Mets ur right it didn't change much. This is going to be a nowcast IMO

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:42 pm

No 18z GFS, that's for sure.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:43 pm

Maine is about to get it good though

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:49 pm

if it strengthened just a few hours earlier, i would have been able to get into moderate precip in NERN VT,

by **aiannone** Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:59 pm

Road trip to Maine?
Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 11 Gfs_6h10

by **aiannone** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:04 am

This would give me 2-3in

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:04 am

Wow, that's one lucky state.n

by **aiannone** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:06 am

So do you think watches could go up for Maine? they have been getting hit for multiple runs now

by **aiannone** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:08 am

Thoughts Frank?
Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 11 Captur10

by **jmanley32** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:16 am

I'm no Frank but that makes sense to me, if its that far ahead of whats really going on thats def going to make things different.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:26 am

People still make that mistake - and idk why - but when the models initialize they take data from 1-2 hours before (something like that) so it rarely matches up to current observations.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:28 am

Actually...wait...if that was the case the GFS would have the ridge axis further west, not east. So that post from Matt has merit. Interesting observation.

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