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Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:36 pm

Dang man, I am sorry can you do a system restore and try to retrieve it? Why did it not save?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:39 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Dang man, I am sorry can you do a system restore and try to retrieve it? Why did it not save?

I do not know. Oh well, I will get back to it on the weekend.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:40 pm

Alex, NAM misses VT.

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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:42 pm

Yupp, a few students and I are sitting here watching frame by frame lol
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Post by algae888 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:43 pm

nam has three different lows. very unorganized for such a strong trough and s/w
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:44 pm

Frank what made the big change in the 18z? Wass it more blocking that slowed the first LP and allowed them both to phase?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:45 pm

I think last year we really didn't do muvh with the nam outside of 36-48 hrs did we not?
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:53 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Frank what made the big change in the 18z?  Wass it more blocking that slowed the first LP and allowed them both to phase?

Blocking is the same, there was just more interaction with the lead energy and the arctic vort. Think of it as friction. It enhanced precipitation along the coast.

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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:03 pm

Well, now we wait for the 0z GFS!
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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:28 pm

GFS is running now. out to hour 12
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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:35 pm

If im not mistaking it looks like the 0z GFS closes off at h5 much earlier at hour 36 and has a negative tilt unlike the NAM
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:40 pm

Looks like its a miss, 18z was on its own.
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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:40 pm

0z GFS is west of 0z NAM, but precip shield is a little weaker and a little east of 18z GFS
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:41 pm

Mets ur right it didn't change much. This is going to be a nowcast IMO
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:42 pm

No 18z GFS, that's for sure.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:43 pm

Maine is about to get it good though

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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:49 pm

if it strengthened just a few hours earlier, i would have been able to get into moderate precip in NERN VT,
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Post by aiannone Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:59 pm

Road trip to Maine?
Possible November 1st Coastal Storm Thread 1 - Page 11 Gfs_6h10


Last edited by Mets2695 on Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by aiannone Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:04 am

This would give me 2-3in
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:04 am

Wow, that's one lucky state.n

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Post by aiannone Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:06 am

So do you think watches could go up for Maine? they have been getting hit for multiple runs now
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Post by aiannone Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:08 am

Thoughts Frank?
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:16 am

I'm no Frank but that makes sense to me, if its that far ahead of whats really going on thats def going to make things different.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:26 am

People still make that mistake - and idk why - but when the models initialize they take data from 1-2 hours before (something like that) so it rarely matches up to current observations.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Oct 31, 2014 12:28 am

Actually...wait...if that was the case the GFS would have the ridge axis further west, not east. So that post from Matt has merit. Interesting observation.

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