Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[jmanley32]

There were some ensemble gut busters too though (Hey but if push comes to shove i'll take 1-3 inches, in November more than usual! I am interested to see if these maps hold up at all though? So far Euro maps have been consistent with a l;ittle or a lot of snow in this time frame, we wait, yes dunzoo, sleepless week coming up especially if a coastal becomes a possibility, a few inches of snow won't keep me up past the GFS at night, being a new father I get little sleep as it is lol.

[amugs]

@NWSWPC: 'THERE IS SOME MULTI-SOULTION SUPPORT FOR A WAVE OF  SOME IMPORT THAT COULD COME FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 7.'

Where is this from Soul or is this a troll to get the juices going??

[jmanley32]

mugs I wondered too I searched that hastag and found it but there was no posting like this nor was it in any NWS discussion.

[jmanley32]

soultion is also mispelled, funny enough soul posted it that way : ) I do not think there is any credibility to this unless we ca get a link showing where it is from.

[SoulSingMG]

@NWSWPC: 'THERE IS SOME MULTI-SOULTION SUPPORT FOR A WAVE OF  SOME IMPORT THAT COULD COME FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST TO PRODUCE SNOW IN THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND DAY 7.'

Where is this from Soul or is this a troll to get the juices going??

It's in their Extended Forecast Discussion.

[SoulSingMG]

WPC = Weather Prediction Center...separate from Upton, Jman.

[jmanley32]

I just read it was it their previous discussion?

[jmanley32]

I found it,

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

[amugs]

I found it,

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Excellent thanks Jman and Soul for posting. Dynamic pattern incoming.

[sroc4]

This is just too good for me not to post.  This was posted by Larry Cosgrove about an hour ago on FB.  When Larry speakith I listen.  


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A few things to chat up about the forecast as we head into the weekend...

1) I have not seen such extensive, intense, and long-lived forecast for blocking signatures since the late 1970s. Every model run keeps spitting out the same vast -AO signature that has extensions in the -EPO, +PNA, and -NAO positions. Given what kind of weather the nation went through in that era, I think everyone needs to have some extra preparation for how the month, and the upcoming winter, may turn out.


2) There has been considerable hype/claptrap about Typhoon Nuri and its influence on U.S. weather. Here is the deal: even without a typhoon injection (which was a big player in the 1976 November pattern), we would still be looking at a highly amplified 500MB flow, with a much colder result along and east of the Continental Divide. Note the moisture connection along the International Dateline associated with tropical forcing/Madden Julian Oscillation percolation. Also note the Kelvin wave across western Indonesia that will move toward, and bolster, the lift/force quotient in the western and central Pacific Ocean. As this feature boosts energy and moisture into the sub-Aleutian mAk vortex (one of three Arctic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere), we will see continued high-latitude ridge formation.

3) Climatology of such ridge formations tells me three things: one, that a cAk vortex formation will take shape over Ontario and/or Quebec (favored spot); two, that the Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast will have a heck of a time securing any milder weather for at least the next two weeks; and three, it is highly likely that the southern branch energy will interact with the polar and Arctic jet stream to produce a significant storm. Most likely track will be through Dixie and along the East Coast. While odds would favor mostly rain in the southern and eastern tier of states, the snow cover will likely get down into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachia. And I would not rule out a start or change/end scenario for snow vs. rain along the Interstate 95 corridor above Richmond VA on November 16 - 17.

[1190ftalt]

Snowing in Stillwater nj, at 1190 ft alt!

[sroc4]

Amazing loop I hope it works.   It goes back to November 2nd. You can see Nuri's remnants just west of the Aleutian Islands starting to bomb out at the end of the loop.  Follow it back from the beginning of the loop and you can still see Nuri as a super typhoon south of Japan with a well defined eye.  Round and round the 500mb pattern goes.  Amazing loop.    

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/polar/index.php?type=polar-wv-48

[sroc4]

Snowing in Stillwater nj, at 1190 ft alt!

Says who?

[1190ftalt]

It has been snowing here for the last 15 minutes, nothing sticking but coming down sideways because of the wind, made my day! Took a video of it don't know if you can put a video on here, I will try.

[sroc4]

It has been snowing here for the last 15 minutes, nothing sticking but coming down sideways because of the wind, made my day! Took a video of it don't know if you can put a video on here, I will try.

Sweet! Im going to post this over in the observations thread.

[jmanley32]

sroc, although I did not know about Mr. Cosgrove (should I?) is this a possibility you think?  I hope its not rain to snow I hate that, but Love the SECS in there,errr that does not sound right at all. Anyways going to be quite a lot of tracking to do this coming week.  18z GFS went poof with any real snow in 192 hrs but that doesnt go to the 18th.  So does this week look like nothing will happen or is a storm still a possibility too in the 7 day?  Seems to be a lot of differing thoughts.

[sroc4]

Im in a hurry up and wait mode Jman just like all of us I guess. I've been saying mid month for a storm for awhile now and am not backing off that idea now. I still think wintery precip will happen 13-17th because the teleconnections look too good. But just because they are in a good position doesn't mean that a storm will happen. It's going to be an interesting week of tracking.

[amugs]

sroc, although I did not know about Mr. Cosgrove (should I?) is this a possibility you think?  I hope its not rain to snow I hate that, but Love the SECS in there,errr that does not sound right at all. Anyways going to be quite a lot of tracking to do this coming week.  18z GFS went poof with any real snow in 192 hrs but that doesnt go to the 18th.  So does this week look like nothing will happen or is a storm still a possibility too in the 7 day?  Seems to be a lot of differing thoughts.

 Forget the 18z gfs please I am pounding the drum on this again and will all winter long the 00 z, 6 z and 12 z runs we follow. I have to dig up the stats on these runs but I read last year about their capabilities within each run and the 18 z was the lowest/ worst run.

[amugs]

Those kelvin waves Larry c was referring to can cause issues to the atmospheric lift over th PAC as well. That is a part of meteorology not many know about , pay attention to or configure into their forecasting same goes for the models.

[jmanley32]

Okay mugs lol, no more 18z.  Never seems to have a fun outcome so why bother.  sroc I hope you are right and rayno is back with a vengence and giddy in his latest video, doesnt feel right now late week threat will make it to 95 but did say this is not a normal pattern and its possibl. He doesn't go on to talk about after this week and thats probably smart but did mention the fun isn't over this week.

[amugs]

GEFS   panels c00 and p11 on our side !


http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip18174.gif

[jmanley32]

Man mugs if those bigger ones end up being frozen we could be looking at a rare snow event for November !

[amugs]

Man mugs if those bigger ones end up being frozen we could be looking at a rare snow event for November !

Yup and three others were close for this far out so we shall see.

Panels 2,3 and 10 are close the references and 9 shows the vortex crushing the storm to he outh or else we have a miller A forming over the bayou!

[jmanley32]

what is our bayou? u mean ots? or over us, no crushing to south oh god not that this yr plz.

[sroc4]

JMan the bayou is down in Louisiana. A Miller A usually gets going as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico then turns up the coast. I believe that it what mugsy is reffering to.

[amugs]

JMan the bayou is down in Louisiana. A Miller A usually gets going as it taps into the Gulf of Mexico then turns up the coast. I believe that it what mugsy is reffering to.

Ya'll got dem dawg!! Right down here in da buy yo!

Louisiana there Jman is your miller a formation.

[jmanley32]

I know where the bayou is I thought u were saying something up here. I have to refresh myself on what a miller a would mean for us.

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