Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[Frank_Wx]

frank read parts of the article and wanted to know what has become of that polar low? it is 16 days since article was written.. do you have any idea?

It is there, but the models boot it out by next week. There will probably be a lull in the SSW progression then it will resume again.

[sroc4]

Here you go Doc

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

Thanks Frank. I'll have to read it after football. Go Giants! go Pack!

[sroc4]

This from Larry Cosgrove:

About to become a typhoon...and taking aim (first) at the Philippines before recurving into the sub-Aleutian Low....

Watch this system!
[img][/img]

[jmanley32]

Dang sroc thats a long trip, this is going to help us get more snow and cold?

[Guest]

HERE WE GO AGAIN!!!

Last winter/early spring my area missed out on 4 consecutive snowstorms. Now this year, (I know it still Nov.) we've missed out on the first two chances and then this upcoming week looks like we'll miss 2 more!!

Every where I read on this forum everyone's amped for alot of snow potential this winter. SO AM I. But these near misses amounting to 6 IN A ROW NOW FOR ME ON LI are getting to me. I'm seriously starting to have a doubt deep down in my gut about whats in store.

[amugs]

Here is the projection - if it can recurve and hang up in the Aleutians then the EPO tanks negative and we get that to help us along with a spike in the PNA.



@SYO don't fret - I'd rather near misses now than in Jan or Feb and to be honest you on the island have a slim chance for snow in November due to that big bath tub you are sitting in called the Atlantic this time of year. CP, SNOW and DOC usually get it cause they are 50 miles NW of the city - the October and November storms are rarities for such storms bringing snows (accumulating types) in the city and east.

[docstox12]

Doc and Mugsy, nice work on this Pacific disturbance that could influence the tellies to help us.Very interesting study!

[Guest]

Here is the projection - if it can recurve and hang up in the Aleutians then the EPO tanks negative and we get that to help us along with a spike in the PNA.



@SYO don't fret - I'd rather near misses now than in Jan or Feb and to be honest you on the island have a slim chance for snow in November due to that big bath tub you are sitting in called the Atlantic this time of year. CP, SNOW and DOC usually get it cause they are 50 miles NW of the city - the October and November storms are rarities for such storms bringing snows (accumulating types) in the city and east.

Hey amugs

I know the ocean is what keeps us from getting early snows. Just look back at the big pre-Thanksgiving nor-easter. I was saying for 3 days leading up to it that I didn't believe all the hype leading up to it. I was hoping to be wrong but knew it wouldn't happen here.

It's just that I'm a big believer in patterns and MY GUT. The fact that after this week we here on LI will have missed the last 8 snow events leads me and my gut to believe that this year after all the build-up has the looks and feel of a major let-down. And yes I know it's still real early. I'm frustrated

[sroc4]

Here is the projection - if it can recurve and hang up in the Aleutians then the EPO tanks negative and we get that to help us along with a spike in the PNA.



@SYO don't fret - I'd rather near misses now than in Jan or Feb and to be honest you on the island have a slim chance for snow in November due to that big bath tub you are sitting in called the Atlantic this time of year. CP, SNOW and DOC usually get it cause they are 50 miles NW of the city - the October and November storms are rarities for such storms bringing snows (accumulating types) in the city and east.

Hey amugs

I know the ocean is what keeps us from getting early snows.  Just look back at the big pre-Thanksgiving nor-easter.  I was saying for 3 days leading up to it that I didn't believe all the hype leading up to it.  I was hoping to be wrong but knew it wouldn't happen here.  

It's just that I'm a big believer in patterns and MY GUT.  The fact that after this week we here on LI will have missed the last 8 snow events leads me and my gut to believe that this year after all the build-up has the looks and feel of a major let-down.  And yes I know it's still real early.  I'm frustrated

Syo my LI brother.  If you believe in patterns then you need not Fret.  In a time period and an upper level pattern less than ideal we have already had over achieving systems, just not your back yard.   So the pattern so far is one with overachieving systems that in the long and medium ranges have not looked all that impressive on the models yet overachieve with strength and precip.  I prescribe to the philosophy of positive thinking, not debbie downerism.  In most winters you and I are almost never getting worked up about near misses in November, so why start now?    

With regards to last year to this year you are trying to compare apples to oranges. There were specific reasons why we missed so often during the second half of last years winter season.  Specifically a strong -EPO and a southward displaced polar vortex that suppressed all our systems south and east.  However; we had completely different sea surface temperature anomalies in the atlantic that promoted zero blocking, vs this year which is almost text book for the development for a -NAO blocking pattern.  In addition this year we have a weak to mod west based El Nino which typically promotes cold and stormy on the east coast compared to last year we had La Nada.  But let us not forget....last season was anything but a bust.  Look at my signature at the bottom of these comments and you will see that we had well above avg snowfall last year(64.85"), it just happened to be front loaded.  Thems the breaks sometime.  

There is no doubt that will all of the forecasts out there calling for cold and stormy in the NE its easy to get overexcited, which in turn could lead to that the dreaded "let down" or "not living up to expectations".  Tell your gut to chill and remember a few key points.
1) Its only November.  Dont get worried until Mid Jan
2) The state of the El Nino, the SST in both the Pac and the Atlantic are in our favor
3) the El Nino status is in our favor
4) the stratosphere is currently in our favor as well
5) There is a typhoon that is forecasted to recurve in the next 5-7 days and will help to set up the 500mb pattern after the 15th-20th or so.
6) prescribe to the power of positive thinking, not Debbie Downerism
7) If you accept that things may not work out exactly how you want in your back yard you wont be as let down as bad.  (Easier said than done I know trust me)

[Frank_Wx]

Here is the projection - if it can recurve and hang up in the Aleutians then the EPO tanks negative and we get that to help us along with a spike in the PNA.



@SYO don't fret - I'd rather near misses now than in Jan or Feb and to be honest you on the island have a slim chance for snow in November due to that big bath tub you are sitting in called the Atlantic this time of year. CP, SNOW and DOC usually get it cause they are 50 miles NW of the city - the October and November storms are rarities for such storms bringing snows (accumulating types) in the city and east.

Hey amugs

I know the ocean is what keeps us from getting early snows.  Just look back at the big pre-Thanksgiving nor-easter.  I was saying for 3 days leading up to it that I didn't believe all the hype leading up to it.  I was hoping to be wrong but knew it wouldn't happen here.  

It's just that I'm a big believer in patterns and MY GUT.  The fact that after this week we here on LI will have missed the last 8 snow events leads me and my gut to believe that this year after all the build-up has the looks and feel of a major let-down.  And yes I know it's still real early.  I'm frustrated

Syo my LI brother.  If you believe in patterns then you need not Fret.  In a time period and an upper level pattern less than ideal we have already had over achieving systems, just not your back yard.   So the pattern so far is one with overachieving systems that in the long and medium ranges have not looked all that impressive on the models yet overachieve with strength and precip.  I prescribe to the philosophy of positive thinking, not debbie downerism.  In most winters you and I are almost never getting worked up about near misses in November, so why start now?    

With regards to last year to this year you are trying to compare apples to oranges. There were specific reasons why we missed so often during the second half of last years winter season.  Specifically a strong -EPO and a southward displaced polar vortex that suppressed all our systems south and east.  However; we had completely different sea surface temperature anomalies in the atlantic that promoted zero blocking, vs this year which is almost text book for the development for a -NAO blocking pattern.  In addition this year we have a weak to mod west based El Nino which typically promotes cold and stormy on the east coast compared to last year we had La Nada.  But let us not forget....last season was anything but a bust.  Look at my signature at the bottom of these comments and you will see that we had well above avg snowfall last year(64.85"), it just happened to be front loaded.  Thems the breaks sometime.  

There is no doubt that will all of the forecasts out there calling for cold and stormy in the NE its easy to get overexcited, which in turn could lead to that the dreaded "let down" or "not living up to expectations".  Tell your gut to chill and remember a few key points.
1) Its only November.  Dont get worried until Mid Jan
2) The state of the El Nino, the SST in both the Pac and the Atlantic are in our favor
3) the El Nino status is in our favor
4) the stratosphere is currently in our favor as well
5) There is a typhoon that is forecasted to recurve in the next 5-7 days and will help to set up the 500mb pattern after the 15th-20th or so.
6) prescribe to the power of positive thinking, not Debbie Downerism
7) If you accept that things may not work out exactly how you want in your back yard you wont be as let down as bad.  (Easier said than done I know trust me)

A+ post doc. Agree. It is Dec. 1st and pattern changes do not show up on models until 4-5 days before (maybe 6-7 days on ensembles). Start looking at the models around December 10th-12th. You will be pleasantly surprised.

[sroc4]

Ha...lol yes it is Dec. Number 1 above should read up until today it was November

[Snow88]

There are some bad signs moving forward into December but I don't think anyone should give up on winter like a lot of people are doing right now. The AO and NAO look to stay positive for a while while the PNA looks to also stay positive. In order for the east to see cold air, AO or NAO needs to be negative. The EPO is also positive which is bad for the east. The MJO isn't in a favorable state for the east. You want it in phases 7-8-1. Those are cold phases for the east and usually stormy phases.Not a good pattern right now if you want to see winter weather in the east. Hopefully it changes soon. El Nino winters are usually backloaded so maybe we can start to get into a favorable pattern come late December.

MJO forecasts

Euro


JMA


GEFS


Ukmet

[Guest]

Here is the projection - if it can recurve and hang up in the Aleutians then the EPO tanks negative and we get that to help us along with a spike in the PNA.



@SYO don't fret - I'd rather near misses now than in Jan or Feb and to be honest you on the island have a slim chance for snow in November due to that big bath tub you are sitting in called the Atlantic this time of year. CP, SNOW and DOC usually get it cause they are 50 miles NW of the city - the October and November storms are rarities for such storms bringing snows (accumulating types) in the city and east.

Hey amugs

I know the ocean is what keeps us from getting early snows.  Just look back at the big pre-Thanksgiving nor-easter.  I was saying for 3 days leading up to it that I didn't believe all the hype leading up to it.  I was hoping to be wrong but knew it wouldn't happen here.  

It's just that I'm a big believer in patterns and MY GUT.  The fact that after this week we here on LI will have missed the last 8 snow events leads me and my gut to believe that this year after all the build-up has the looks and feel of a major let-down.  And yes I know it's still real early.  I'm frustrated

Syo my LI brother.  If you believe in patterns then you need not Fret.  In a time period and an upper level pattern less than ideal we have already had over achieving systems, just not your back yard.   So the pattern so far is one with overachieving systems that in the long and medium ranges have not looked all that impressive on the models yet overachieve with strength and precip.  I prescribe to the philosophy of positive thinking, not debbie downerism.  In most winters you and I are almost never getting worked up about near misses in November, so why start now?    

With regards to last year to this year you are trying to compare apples to oranges. There were specific reasons why we missed so often during the second half of last years winter season.  Specifically a strong -EPO and a southward displaced polar vortex that suppressed all our systems south and east.  However; we had completely different sea surface temperature anomalies in the atlantic that promoted zero blocking, vs this year which is almost text book for the development for a -NAO blocking pattern.  In addition this year we have a weak to mod west based El Nino which typically promotes cold and stormy on the east coast compared to last year we had La Nada.  But let us not forget....last season was anything but a bust.  Look at my signature at the bottom of these comments and you will see that we had well above avg snowfall last year(64.85"), it just happened to be front loaded.  Thems the breaks sometime.  

There is no doubt that will all of the forecasts out there calling for cold and stormy in the NE its easy to get overexcited, which in turn could lead to that the dreaded "let down" or "not living up to expectations".  Tell your gut to chill and remember a few key points.
1) Its only November.  Dont get worried until Mid Jan
2) The state of the El Nino, the SST in both the Pac and the Atlantic are in our favor
3) the El Nino status is in our favor
4) the stratosphere is currently in our favor as well
5) There is a typhoon that is forecasted to recurve in the next 5-7 days and will help to set up the 500mb pattern after the 15th-20th or so.
6) prescribe to the power of positive thinking, not Debbie Downerism
7) If you accept that things may not work out exactly how you want in your back yard you wont be as let down as bad.  (Easier said than done I know trust me)

sroc4

You Da Man. I realize my posts can be irrational but that's why I have you guys to listen to. I'm just venting a little. I appreciate the positivity though and yes I'm still hopefull. I just spent a few days at my parents in Ulster County in 10 inches of snow with the kids and it only served to excite me about snow prospects even more. Especially after driving back through a snow covered landscape only to get neat Tarrytown on the Sprain and have all the snow disappear from the ground and traffic build!!

[Guest]

Any Snow potential for this upcoming weekend. NWS long range shows a possible coastal around Sat.??

[Frank_Wx]

Just noticed this...EURO and other models not showing the typhoon recurve. Just crash into the Philippines and eventually dissipate

[Frank_Wx]

Any Snow potential for this upcoming weekend.  NWS long range shows a possible coastal around Sat.??

Nope

[Frank_Wx]

Here is the POS trough/PV that is currently sitting over NW Asia and disrupting the progression of the current SSW taking place. It is forecasted to split in roughly 1 week and positive heights can finally build back into that area, but the PV redevelops over Greenland and it is simply NOT a good look. Luckily, it is early and there should be recovery by the end of this month (hopefully).

[Snow88]

I hate waiting

[Frank_Wx]

I hate waiting

It is unfortunate that trough just happened to be there as this SSW event was taking place. We could have jump started winter probably a lot quicker, but it is what it is. Better now then January.

[amugs]

Scott - perfectly stated. People are ready to jump off the bridge when they see 50's in teh forecast and no snow or cold in the 5 day or a roller coaster - we must have patience and faith in the pattern as you outlined so perfectly is there - I also read that some el nino's are not front loaded but mid to end loaded.

This should make people happy seeing this

[Guest]

Here is the POS trough/PV that is currently sitting over NW Asia and disrupting the progression of the current SSW taking place. It is forecasted to split in roughly 1 week and positive heights can finally build back into that area, but the PV redevelops over Greenland and it is simply NOT a good look. Luckily, it is early and there should be recovery by the end of this month (hopefully).

OK Thanks

[algae888]

scott great post. we usually do not see our first wide spread snow until late dec on average and many of us already have our first accumulations. with a few chances this week to see some more (at least n/w). snow88 I do not trust tele indexes more than 7 days out. always flip flopping. my concern is the nao. if it were neg now we would be talking about 2 accum snowfalls for area this week. hoping to see it go neg before the end of this month.

[jmanley32]

Hey Al, yeah doesn't even look all that promising inland, I am trying to take this in heed that its only beginning of December but the current trends have not been good for us and from wehat I have read about a page back things are not setting up good as it looks right now. Of course this can all change in a heartbeat. 70 today just doesn't feel right at all, I'm sorry.

Frank FYI, the Euro does kinda show a coastal like system but it appears to come onshore from the east to west, bringing a lot of snow well inland about a few inches of rain for the coast.

[Frank_Wx]

No one look at the models for this week and next  week. Very ugly for winter wx.  At least I can use this time to focus on school, haha

[jmanley32]

Jeeze. talk about a rain storm around the 6-9th day (looks to be long duration so flooding probably will not be a issue). It will change each run (euro shows about 2-3 inches) but MAN if we just had the cold, even Wxbell snow map picks up on that it will be rain.

[jmanley32]

Opps sorry Frank lol, it is ugly I retract my post lol

Good Idea Frank me too, finals due 17th

[NjWeatherGuy]

Jeeze. talk about a rain storm around the 6-9th day (looks to be long duration so flooding probably will not be a issue).  It will change each run (euro shows about 2-3 inches) but MAN if we just had the cold, even Wxbell snow map picks up on that it will be rain.

6

6" of rain? Yikes

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