Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[amugs]

Check out thè snow growth from the mid week storm as per gfs

[jmanley32]

IMO, we will see some flakes fly end of week (some of use if not all) and then next week I just have a feeling we are in for a big storm, yes all the pieces have to be right but it just seems like such a perfect pattern/setup.  Yes Frank I-95 NW grrr lol, lets hope its cool enough everywhere.  Still a concern here with leaves on many trees still, won't be gone by next week (17-21). Lots of watching and waiting ahead. Does anyone know did those crazy fisherman head back to shore, or did they survive at sea?

[Isotherm]

Al and everyone else here  - it will be one year ago Nov 12th that our first flakes flew for the area with that rapid cold front that swept in here - Mike pointed this out a bunch of posts back - the same type of pattern is incoming but the STJ (southern stream) is more active.

Mother Nature wants to give some flakes and a light sporadic dusting - I will take it - keep the eye on the second system IMO - the first one is going to set up a doozy.  We have had three major anomaly storms since 2011 - SnowTober, Sandy and the Nor'easter  that followed dumping good amount of snow over the region - this seem to be somewhat of a coincidence (? or pattern?) these past few years as we enter into the changing of the fall season within itself (not from fall to winter but early fall to latter fall). If this does occur then we will have seen a snowfall of accumulation for the past 3 out of four years in Oct and Nov - interesting.

Judan Cohen's thoughts on things - saying the SSW may happen sooner than we think - interesting and I said this as Scott pointed out those Kelvin Waves (moderate) coming east of the Indian Ocean area. Those like I have said and doen some research on can wreck havoc in the atmosphere for warming and convection.

Good read and only time will tell.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Mugs, I'm definitely of the opinion that there's a heightened probability for an earlier than normal SSW this year given the perturbation of the stratospheric vortex that has been ongoing for a few weeks already. The October pattern was very favorable for upward propagating Rossby waves, and the rapid snow cover advance has only enhanced the vertically propagating waves. We're doing serious damage to the vortex circulation and some of the longer term guidance suggests we could potentially see a vortex displacement or splitting event D10+. If this were to occur, say in late November or early December, it'd be the earliest SSW occurrence in quite awhile, and would probably ensure renewed blocking following the current episode. If we're devoid of any SSW through December, the current -NAO/AO episode will probably break down in mid December barring extremely favorable tropospheric forcing factors.

Very interesting year on our hands. Should be fun to watch this unfold. At this point, we're essentially guaranteed at least a 30-day period of blocking from the current -NAO/AO episode, which takes us through early December.

[sroc4]

I guess this is long range. The British building a new supercomputer for forecasting. Set to finish in 2017. http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/193054-defying-drizzle-uk-to-build-worlds-fastest-weather-forecasting-supercomputer

[Frank_Wx]

I guess this is long range. The British building a new supercomputer for forecasting.  Set to finish in 2017. http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/193054-defying-drizzle-uk-to-build-worlds-fastest-weather-forecasting-supercomputer

Madonne, that is fast.

[NjWeatherGuy]

This is beginning to peak my interest

[sroc4]

I guess this is long range. The British building a new supercomputer for forecasting.  Set to finish in 2017. http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/193054-defying-drizzle-uk-to-build-worlds-fastest-weather-forecasting-supercomputer

Madonne, that is fast.

Your not kidding. 16 quadrillion calculations per second. My head hurts thinking about it.

[Frank_Wx]

This is beginning to peak my interest

Which event? I kind of like Friday for our first flakes. I like the second event for areas west of I-95 for their first accumulating snow. Obviously this could trend colder, and with the cold air being modeled, it would not shock me. The blocking certainly is there

[amugs]

I am calling for a storm thanksgiving week using the Bearing Sea Rule as I stated before. If the ridge sets up it be a secs if not it cuts and becomes one for the Great Lakes and Ohio valley but I have a feeling the pattern we are about to settle into for the next few weeks produces this.

Tom, great post and I said this before that these waves occurring high in the atmosphere are not picked up nor I believe calculated into the models until the resultant has occurred - SSW or the early warming stages of such. The snow cover is immense and interestingly enough we have only been tracking this for Siberia since 1997? A lot happening with this changing pattern and very exciting - as I peer into my Snow Weenie snowball I foresee many a storm possibility on the near and winter season horizon - with lots of discussion and threads upon threads and posts. Fun times are awaiting.

It would be a kick in the arse if we had to use a snow day before turkey day - could happen. Next two days give us greater insight into what the first wave will be at the end of the week.

[NjWeatherGuy]

This is beginning to peak my interest

Which event? I kind of like Friday for our first flakes. I like the second event for areas west of I-95 for their first accumulating snow. Obviously this could trend colder, and with the cold air being modeled, it would not shock me. The blocking certainly is there

I see both having potential, not too confident about the first one just yet because ive seen some dry and sliding looking runs with very little QPF if any. Really like the pattern that follows to potentially get the ball rolling early on the winter storm season.

[Frank_Wx]

Yea...that is for sure.

[Frank_Wx]

GFS for system #1 grazes southeast NJ with snow showers

[Frank_Wx]

GFS for system #2





Done by hour 177

[Vinnydula]

Would that be snow

[aiannone]

This might be a storm where I miss out being inland now. I'm not used to getting nothing from a coastal storm lol. Now inland cutters are my friend lmao

[Frank_Wx]

Would that be snow

No, but it could start as snow or end as snow. It would be snow in NW NJ and NEPA, in SNOWMAN's territory.

[algae888]

frank precip still around at hr 180. still a long way to go with this one.

[Frank_Wx]

frank precip still around at hr 180. still a long way to go with this one.

Do not think that is right, SV shows nothing at 180 hours?

[Frank_Wx]

GFS Parallel, the new model, shows nothing for BOTH systems. Both are out to sea.

[algae888]

i'm using nws site . also gfs model on this site shows precip at 180hr. I guess one  is wrong.

[sroc4]

Euro seemed to be much broader with the trough for the second storm vs yesterday's 00z making it look more like an over running event for our area late 17th-18th. The easterly flow off the Atlantic would squash any hopes for accum snow along the coastal plain. This is all verbatim. All 3 global models have the trough looking broad with the +PNA ridge axis a tad too far west and the flow looking progressive off the east coast for now. Long way to go with this one as we still have to get through the first storm. I am still not impressed by the first system. Im still hoping for some flakes. That one too looks like an overrunning event. Depending on the timing could start as snow showers but again the easterly flow off the ocean would quickly change things over.

[jmanley32]

sroc the 00z Euro showed 8-10 inches inland and 2-5 along coastal areas, I would take that no problem. It looked like a pretty impressive low, verbatim.

[sroc4]

Those maps are pretty Jman but not very useful right now.  Upon closer inspection of the Euro I am even more convinced to follow my own advise and not over analyze run to run.  I need to sit back and look at a day or two of runs along with the ensembles to see where this is going.  Just look at the stark differences in the timing of yesterday compared to todays 00z on the Euro. Both images below represent what the upper level pattern looks like aby Monday 12z.  This whole thing gets going because a piece of energy dives in from the north and becomes amped as it interacts with the southern jet and begins to tap the gulf moisture.  But let us, (Im talking to myself here) focus on the details of the first system before over analyzing the second one. Arctic Cold air will be around for both systems so the potential for wintery weather exists for both.
Yesterday 00z:
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Today's 00z
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[skinsfan1177]

Need to get thru the first system before examining the second

[sroc4]

Need to get thru the first system before examining the second

Take a look at my prev post I edited it. I was actually realizing that as you were posting. I said it yesterday and still believe it today I think the first system will have minor impacts if any, and the second one is the one to watch, but your absolutely right.

[jmanley32]

Wow that is a big difference. Ok we will wait and see maybe we get surprised with first with some light snow.

[Frank_Wx]

H5 does not look great for the 2nd storm we are watching for early next week. 12z GFS shows the western ridge too far off the coast, High in an unfavorable location, and too much phasing taking place around the Great Lakes forcing heights to rise along the east coast. Scott has pointed out the unfavorable look at H5. Still ways to go though...

By the way, 12z GFS is a miss for Friday. EURO has snow showers still.

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