Re: Official Long Range Thread 4.0

[sroc4]

Im going to throw this out there then Im going to go enjoy my Thanksgiving.  I think we are going to have to watch out for the time frame between Dec 3rd-6th time frame.  If you look at last nights Euro 500mb anomalies you might be saying what?  Sroc is crazy.  
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From this look it looks like there is a ridge from the SW CONUS extending east involving the southern half of the CONUS extending into the NE.  We should be above normal temps with a zonal flow in the east with this look.  How is that conducive for a storm?  If you correct for some of the known bias' in the European model if you pull the trough back that is off the west coast just a little bit it should act to pump the ridge along the west coast instead of cut it off like its showing.  As a  result if you eliminated the connection between the trough in the pacific with the vortex over Canada, that trough should in theory promote ridging in the west and in turn a digging trough into the plains and eventually into the NE.  In theory the STJ (sub tropical jet) would shift back west as well and maybe there is some interaction with the northern jet (because its allowed to dig a bit deeper into the central CONUS) and possibly interact with the STJ to look more like this:
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I may not be crazy because the Euro Ensemble mean at the same time frame is trying to hint at this.  Look at this:
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Im just throwing this out there.  It may not come to fruition but as Al pointed out the AO wants to go neg and the PNA wants to go positive right around this time frame.

[amugs]

Al and Scott Great work and take the day off and relax from the weather for a few hours - maybe the last time for a long time in doing so guys!!

Have a great Thanksgiving.

[jmanley32]

Nice sroc not to far away hopefully something comes along. If not its very early still. Even though yesterday was no big deal here I am over it and hoping next storm is colder.

[NjWeatherGuy]

Not seeing anything too promising in the immediate future, time to go back to work I guess.

[Snow88]

GFS says watch mid December for cold and snow

[sroc4]

Pattern undergoing changes setting up to lock into cold and stormy as Anthony mentioned for mid dec. and beyond.  The threat I mentioned around the 4th is still there; Euro and CMC sniffing around this. Here is the 00z Euro from yesterday I posted.
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And this is last nights 00z Euro same time frame. As you can see big changes to the upper levels from one run to the next. Notice the ridge trying to get its act together now in the west and a neg tilted trough in the east.  If the blues and purples were a bit more consolidated out in the Pac this could get interesting.


Coming around to my idea, but as of now it's merely a small threat. Nothing imminent. Models will flip and flop like crazy in the long range while pattern is undergoing changes. FWIW CMC is similar to this at H5 for Dec 4th;whereas, the GFS and PGFS look nothing like this.

[skinsfan1177]

I hope this winter comes to fruitation with all the info I have got from this board I have been telling people this winter is going to be epic lol or as we see it has the potential to be.

[algae888]

I hope this winter comes to fruitation with all the info I have got from this board I have been telling people this winter is going to be epic lol or as we see it has the potential to be.

skins as you know any thing can happen with the weather however look at the pattern we have been in the last 2+ weeks. more like jan than nov. plus the next 10-14 days we will be near to slightly below normal with a pattern that has relaxed and is more zonal which is a very good sign IMO. there are no big warm ups in sight. maybe a day or two above and then right back to below . after that everything is pointing towards a more amplified one with cold out breaks and increasing chances for snow. and remember all this is happening pre winter we still have 23 more days until winter officially starts

[Frank_Wx]

We still have a long way to go before our winter pattern locks in, which I said from my outlook to be a +PNA/-NAO/-AO. Not one model is showing a sustained -NAO yet and a lot of what I'm seeing on guidance looks very progressive. However, changes are happening in the Stratosphere which eventually will propagate downward into the Troposphere. There is warming taking place in almost all the Strato. levels and that is going to either split the PV or displace it over central/eastern Canada. Euro is showing the PV being split (as shown below). I think the pattern locks in Christmas week. 

[Snow88]

The PNA isn't the problem moving forward. It's the NAO. PNA is forecasted to rise while the NAO is forecasted to stay positive.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

[Frank_Wx]

[nutleyblizzard]

Everybody get your rest now, the next couple of weeks look rather uneventful. By the time we get to mid December this weather forum WILL BE ROCKING!!!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

After a very mild October that ended up 2.7 degrees above normal in CPK, November looks to End up about 2.7 degrees below normal.

The snowfall of 0.2 inches will be below the 30 year average of 0.3 and the 145 year average of 0.8.

Of course other areas of the Metro, Orange County for one where we've had about a foot this month, will end up above normal regarding snowfall.

[Snow88]

12z GFS still shows a little overrunning for the middle of next week and next weekend. Interior areas look to get a quick snowfall for both events. The coast is too warm for that. The event next weekend I think can trend colder due to that high up north. Hopefully the high pressure stays put longer than what the models show. GFS changes the pattern to a colder and stormier one by mid December with a deep trough in the east. Hopefully that pattern stays.

[Frank_Wx]

Weather looks pretty transient for the first 10 days of December. There will be some overrunning opportunities but timing with the cold air will be important with those. In my opinion, don't hold your breath unless you're north of NYC. Let's pay attention to the MJO and progress of both the ENSO and Strato for now.

[jmanley32]

Actually I am glad to hear that, after Dec 17th please bring on a big storm : )  School break then till Jan 28th, I can tack without interruption.  Unless something comes up you may not be hearing as much from me as usual (do't get smart, lol), big time finals coming up.

[sroc4]

Good luck Jman.

[jmanley32]

Thanks sroc actually looks like we may have something in 10 day euro.

[Frank_Wx]

Judah  Cohen,  the man who discovered the SAI correlation with winter patterns, is concerned about an anomalous polar low that developed in Northwest Asia and how it could disrupt the expansion of the Siberian High, which is critical for us to get our AO negative. He says some models bring that polar low back to its climatological  spot, but others are still displacing it in an unusual spot. Interesting...let's hope that's not bad news.

[sroc4]

Judah  Cohen,  the man who discovered the SAI correlation with winter patterns, is concerned about an anomalous polar low that developed in Northwest Asia and how it could disrupt the expansion of the Siberian High, which is critical for us to get our AO negative. He says some models bring that polar low back to its climatological  spot, but others are still displacing it in an unusual spot. Interesting...let's hope that's not bad news.

Interesting Frank. Do you have a link to read about this? We will also have to see if the forecasted typhoon in the SW PAC in the LR actually develops and recurves. If it does it could be what locks us in for late Dec into early Jan.

[sroc4]

Been talking about this for a few days now, but Still can't sleep on the late week WAA event. Looks like a couple of WAA over running events going to affect the area this week. The later of the two could surprise us with a weak LP developing and barclonic enhancement could apply. Probably going to be too warm for most if not all but some icey and/or snowy conditions could affect the NW interior. If any of the snow pack hold up could bee some CAD that models won't see.

[Snow88]

Latest Tellies

PNA is still forecasted to rise
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

AO looks like it will fall into the negative category with some members in the positive category
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

NAO has mixed signals
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

[Frank_Wx]

Here you go Doc

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

[Frank_Wx]

Anthony, those graphics usually go by what the GFS is saying. Rarely do I use them. Better to look at H5 height mapa

[algae888]

frank read parts of the article and wanted to know what has become of that polar low? it is 16 days since article was written.. do you have any idea?

[Frank_Wx]

frank read parts of the article and wanted to know what has become of that polar low? it is 16 days since article was written.. do you have any idea?

It is there, but the models boot it out by next week. There will probably be a lull in the SSW progression then it will resume again.

[sroc4]

Here you go Doc

http://www.vwkweb.nl/index.php?page=537&sl=1

Thanks Frank. I'll have to read it after football. Go Giants! go Pack!

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