11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

Holy crap...huge rainstorm

Ok, now that SV is working again I can say this actually is slightly east of 12z, but still very warm for coast and nothing like GFS or other models for that matter.

I knew this would happen tonight!!!

Wtf can that be right?

Later phase on EURO, but still not ideal for coastal people. It does not bomb until it gets near Maine.

0z Euro is further east . It is still a bad run for the coast but an improvement from the tucked in solution at 12z. It ends up inside of the benchmark rather than on top of LI

I do not even think it is the SFC low track that is warming the layers up so much. I think it has more to do with the southern s/w being so amp'd and raising heights too much up the east coast. A weaker southern s/w would really help coastal sections. But inland cashes in really well on EURO.

That said, for the fact EURO came east and looks more like the UKMET...I think this was a good run. It should have been a little colder, imo

0z Euro snowmap shows 6+ from wxbell for NYC lol

Inside the BM run not bad at all didnt budge east much Im satisfied, goodnight guys will post write up tomorrow.

I just saw posts from a MET on Twitter. Said this nor'easter is a secondary cyclongenisis happening on the trailing end of a cold front. Meaning cold air comes in after front passage, then storm rides up while giving no time for cold to modify or advect warmer air to east coast; as wave develops, tropical moisture overruns cold air which eventually wins out at all levels.

He said 00z euro actually shows heavy, wet snow blanketing DC to NYC to BOS & a travel nightmare will unfold.

Any of that make sense to you guys?

6z nam a little west and colder and faster. looks nice...


6z


00z

6z gfs a little east of ooz. like 6z nam it's faster. nws issue wsw for much of northern suburbs

nws going with gfs/cmc...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS ON THE STORM SYSTEM THAT LIKELY WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED ITS
STORM TRACK TO THE EAST - BUT STILL REMAINS A WESTERN OUTLIER
COMPARED TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. THE NAM APPEARS TO BE A
WEAKER/EASTERN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT BASED FORECAST TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/SREF/CMC.

they think low will pass near benchmark...

FOR NOW...THE CONSENSUS IS GROWING FOR THE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

Easterly trend has started good for coastal areas

and jman nws has us right near the r/s line. going to be a nail bitter for us...
BASED ON THE ABOVE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NE NJ AND 4-8
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR S CT. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS
FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY-12Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ AND FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY
FOR INTERIOR S CT.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP DROP OFF BETWEEN AREAS RECEIVING WARNING
LEVEL SNOWS AND THOSE RECEIVING MAYBE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO DEPENDING
ON EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY AND ON HOW
QUICKLY IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK...THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE FOR REACHING WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE
NJ/NYC/COASTAL S CT AND ALL BUT E SUFFOLK COUNTY ON LONG ISLAND.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Easterly trend has started good for coastal areas

skins we still have a low chance of warning level snows. going to be a close call

WSW for me, all snow, 3 to 5 inches going into Weds night.Amazing this is November fer crying out loud! Think this could work out for the coast with the easterly trend of the Euro.Going to really believe at chat time tonight.

mt holly disco...

LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP
GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE
POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER,
COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH
THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO
ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND
EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.

Morning all, wow did I fall asleep dang I missed Euro just saw now but shame on me lol.  I see WSW Wind advisory and coastal flood advisory for the area Al, yeah it is going to be a closecall but I think we may be ok.  Winds picking up now woith a good rain, 45-50mph gusts, I am kind laughing they blocked off blockes of streets for a mini series filming here starting at 5am, not sure how they are going to do that.

Oh lordy Al, how ever Mt. Holly went ape two nights ago about how bad it would be and now saying this, so I dunno if I buy this yet.  Ready earlier posts that the cold may be ok.

Unless this ticks east, a classic borderline Metro Area snowstorm with I 95 as the battleground.

jmanley32 wrote:Oh lordy Al, how ever Mt. Holly went ape two nights ago about how bad it would be and now saying this, so I dunno if I buy this yet.  Ready earlier posts that the cold may be ok.

jman as of right now we are on the fall line. very close. one thing I wish to see from models today is for storm to slow down because most off the heavier precip looks to fall during the day as per 6z runs. even if it's snow going to be hard to accum. during daylight hours. with out any blocking do not think this will happen.

docstox12 wrote:Unless this ticks east, a classic borderline Metro Area snowstorm with I 95 as the battleground.

hey doc any houses for sale up there. lived in Bronx and lower Westchester my whole life. consistently on the r/s line. can't take many more of these nail bitters.

I hear ya,Al.Lived in Mahwah NJ, a little further N  of I 95 but always turned into slop being too close to the City. We would get amounts halfway between the City and HV in Mahwah.The HV is definitely 3 to 5 degrees colder, plus elevation than Mahwah which works out great for these borderline storms.Come on up here and join CP and me, houses cost less than Bronx-Westchester.BTW my Fiancee's Mom lives in Tuckahoe and Fiancee works at Montefiore on 233rd St.

docstox12 wrote:I hear ya,Al.Lived in Mahwah NJ, a little further N  of I 95 but always turned into slop being too close to the City. We would get amounts halfway between the City and HV in Mahwah.The HV is definitely 3 to 5 degrees colder, plus elevation than Mahwah which works out great for these borderline storms.Come on up here and join CP and me, houses cost less than Bronx-Westchester.BTW my Fiancee's Mom lives in Tuckahoe and Fiancee works at Montefiore on 233rd St.

really! I live a town over from your fiancée's mom and work at 225th street, I drive by monte all the time.

As they say, small world!