11/26 Strong Coastal Storm Possible

docstox12 wrote:I hear ya,Al.Lived in Mahwah NJ, a little further N  of I 95 but always turned into slop being too close to the City. We would get amounts halfway between the City and HV in Mahwah.The HV is definitely 3 to 5 degrees colder, plus elevation than Mahwah which works out great for these borderline storms.Come on up here and join CP and me, houses cost less than Bronx-Westchester.BTW my Fiancee's Mom lives in Tuckahoe and Fiancee works at Montefiore on 233rd St.

really! I live a town over from your fiancée's mom and work at 225th street, I drive by monte all the time.

As they say, small world!

and doc when I retire in a few years I would like to move north unlike most sane people who go to warm and sunny florida.

Well that was depressing, waking up and ABC making no waves about the potential for snow. Going to cry in my coffee. Good morning all!

algae888 wrote:and doc when I retire in a few years I would like to move north unlike most sane people who  go to warm and sunny florida.

You're a Snow Weenie for sure, AL,LOL!

I've woken up to a winter storm warning here in western essex for wed , is that true

Hey all, I'm not trying to be a downer AT ALL; I know how much we all love snow, but I think that the EURO is going to end up being the winner of this contest. Here's why....1) First of, it has been, by far, the most consistent model with respect to showing this storm and keeping it around. If you remember, the GFS was going back and forth about it for a few days. 2) After looking at the ensembles of all models starting from 00z last night, there are still at least 50% of the members in both the EURO and GFS that carve out the digging trough DEEPER than the means and operational runs. The only reason that means even agree with the operationals at this point is because of far shallow outliers which nudges the mean further north and more in line with the operationals. As a result of the sharper trough, the surface low MUST track further west in these deeper ensemble members. Because there are such large portions of the ensembles that are doing this, and we all know how ensembles work, I do not think that it would be wise to ignore that fact. I truly believe based on what I'm seeing that we will see a significant westerly trend in the GFS, and a "steady course" or even western shift to the EURO. Just my two cents.

Aside from all of that, whoever DOES see snow for the whole event, I also believe that there will be an incredible frontogenetic band that sets up about 100 miles northwest of the surface low. It looks like it may try to close off at H7, which would only further enhace the frontogenesis already forecast to be occurring northwest of the cyclone. I would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed two inches per hour under this pinwheeling band. Omega values are through the roof, which indicates tremendous mid-level ascent, and with its location in the right entrance of the northern jet streak and even possibly coupling into the left exit of the sub-tropical, the dynamics of this storm are going to be incredible. There are no two ways about that. Again, just my humble opinion.

docstox12 wrote:WSW for me, all snow, 3 to 5 inches going into Weds night.Amazing this is November fer crying out loud! Think this could work out for the coast with the easterly trend of the Euro.Going to really believe at chat time tonight.

Doc; Our WSW is for 6-10 inches. We shall see.

Sharon L wrote:Well that was depressing, waking up and ABC making no waves about the potential for snow. Going to cry in my coffee.  Good morning all!

They're just trying to play both sides and not be alarmists for now. Since the storm can still go in a few directions especially in our area where 20 miles can mean the difference between a foot of snow and a cold rain theyre playing it safe.. They figure they have until tonight to give everyone ample warning before they step off the ledge.

algae888 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:Unless this ticks east, a classic borderline Metro Area snowstorm with I 95 as the battleground.

hey doc any houses for sale up there. lived in Bronx and lower Westchester my whole life. consistently on the r/s line. can't take many more of these nail bitters.

I have clients in midtown and take the commuter bus to port authority on 42nd at least once a week. The bus from up here in Central Valley (orange County) does the trip in 55 minutes. It's a lot easier than when I use to drive from Rockland. The Doc and I would love to have another snow lover up here.

Thanks CP! Have a great day!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...

NJZ002-004-103-105-NYZ067>070-241700-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0006.141126T1200Z-141127T1200Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
347 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...SHOULD
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOWFALL WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY
TRAVEL...MAKING DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES.

How much of a factor is temps near 70* today and 50s with sunshine tomorrow on potential snow acclumations

Artechmetals wrote:I've woken up to a winter storm warning here in western essex for wed , is that true

It's a Winter Storm Watch. If it's updated to a Warning that most likely would not happen until the NWS 4am update tomorrow morning.

Off to Brooklyn today. This is going to be a nightmare drive.

Scott we are still in it!
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED
HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

rb924119 wrote:Hey all, I'm not trying to be a downer AT ALL; I know how much we all love snow, but I think that the EURO is going to end up being the winner of this contest. Here's why....1) First of, it has been, by far, the most consistent model with respect to showing this storm and keeping it around. If you remember, the GFS was going back and forth about it for a few days. 2) After looking at the ensembles of all models starting from 00z last night, there are still at least 50% of the members in both the EURO and GFS that carve out the digging trough DEEPER than the means and operational runs. The only reason that means even agree with the operationals at this point is because of far shallow outliers which nudges the mean further north and more in line with the operationals. As a result of the sharper trough, the surface low MUST track further west in these deeper ensemble members. Because there are such large portions of the ensembles that are doing this, and we all know how ensembles work, I do not think that it would be wise to ignore that fact. I truly believe based on what I'm seeing that we will see a significant westerly trend in the GFS, and a "steady course" or even western shift to the EURO. Just my two cents.

Aside from all of that, whoever DOES see snow for the whole event, I also believe that there will be an incredible frontogenetic band that sets up about 100 miles northwest of the surface low. It looks like it may try to close off at H7, which would only further enhace the frontogenesis already forecast to be occurring northwest of the cyclone. I would not be surprised to see snowfall rates exceed two inches per hour under this pinwheeling band. Omega values are through the roof, which indicates tremendous mid-level ascent, and with its location in the right entrance of the northern jet streak and even possibly coupling into the left exit of the sub-tropical, the dynamics of this storm are going to be incredible. There are no two ways about that. Again, just my humble opinion.

This is a logical assumption at this juncture.I think Tom mentioned last night the Euro could still take this way west and make it a soaker for all of us.I'll believe the consensus late tonight.

Going to be sharp cut offs. I-95 +\- 15miles could the difference of 2-3" to 6-8"+. Not going to have time to post a snow map today.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:WSW for me, all snow, 3 to 5 inches going into Weds night.Amazing this is November fer crying out loud! Think this could work out for the coast with the easterly trend of the Euro.Going to really believe at chat time tonight.

Doc; Our WSW is for 6-10 inches. We shall see.

OK, CP, we'll see if this pans out.Models not set in stone at this point in time.

Dtone wrote:How much of a factor is temps near 70* today and 50s with sunshine tomorrow on potential snow acclumations

It depends on the intensity of the snowfall and the temperatures while it's snowing. The sun is so low in the sky this time of year sun angle plays no factor.

Tomorrows temperatures may keep it from sticking to roads right away especially in heaviiy traveled areas but it won't affect grassy or cold surfaces.

9z SREF

docstox12 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

docstox12 wrote:WSW for me, all snow, 3 to 5 inches going into Weds night.Amazing this is November fer crying out loud! Think this could work out for the coast with the easterly trend of the Euro.Going to really believe at chat time tonight.

Doc; Our WSW is for 6-10 inches. We shall see.

OK, CP, we'll see if this pans out.Models not set in stone at this point in time.

Still uncertainty here Doc, even for us. I'd sign for the 6-10 right now if I could.

It appears Upton and HPC are dismissing the EURO. It has been, by far, the most consistent model for the last 3 days now so I'm not I agree. Like I said yesterday, I do feel the pattern calls for a EURO tracked tight along the coast, but then again I can see how this storm nudges east some given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge in the west not being as amplified.

sroc4 wrote:Going to be sharp cut offs. I-95 +\-  15miles could the difference of 2-3" to 6-8"+.  Not going to have time to post a snow map today.

Agree

Most if not all of the GEFS agrees with the OP

SREF. ..like GFS. Someone's gotta give today, right?

aiannone wrote:Scott we are still in it!
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED
HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

Nothing is off the table Alex esp if the Euro continues to tick east. That being said I'm not overly optimistic. Rb made some great point a few posts back about the euros ensembles. The dynamics of a storm like this will undoubtedly play a role, so again even though we are closer to nailing down a track it's still not set in stone. My gut is telling me that we will be surprised at just how far S and E the R/S makes it but for our location it may end up so close yet so far. I'll be happy to see flakes. I'm approaching this in such a way so that I won't be let down, but objectively still believe accumulations for all us is well within the realm of possibility. This time tomorrow I may feel differently.