Possible Nor'easter Dec. 9th-10th

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014120700/namconus_ref_frzn_neus.html

The weenie run - one can only hope and pray it happens

cmc still hugger and wet sigh. GFS and NAM root root lol

Looks like whatever the precip is the NYC metro and surrounding areas get slammed at that hr with torrential precip and high winds.

Frank where did the GFS suddenly find cold air for that run? Did it make its own or was it there already, which would be odd since none of the others have shown a solution like that. Probably a outlier but I sure hope its the solution!

Ukmet

Jman winds shifted out from the northwest once the storm retrograded on gfs

Do u think there is any chance that much snow falls for the area or at least 6 to b very conservative off that run? Cmc and ukmet warm so I hope either gfs has gotten into something or its on a drug binge. What a tease anyways.

Flooding rain on the Euro. GFS is alone.

Wow wow and wow 

The euro actually retrogrades the low back into the area on THURSDAY 

The heavy rain comes on Tuesday. Wednesday is a lull 

SNOW STORM 

H5 is just unbelievable. A closed off vort just sitting and spinning over NJ-NYC for hours on end

well I see things got a little more interesting after last nights runs. gfs and nam has backend snow for us euro has precip falling into Saturday and cmc which seems to be most consistent with this storm gives us all rain. cmc 2-4 inches in 12 hours wow! still a lot to be ironed out. here is some of nws disco

HEAVIEST RAIN WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING...AIDED BY APPROACH OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE...STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND STRONG ATLANTIC
INFLOW (65-75 KT 850 MB EASTERLY JET) BRINGING IN PWATS 1-2 STDS
ABOVE NORMAL. SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS OF IMPACTS.
BASED ON CONSENSUS TRACK...THIS FORCING AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD MOVE
NORTH OF LI/CT TUE EVE WITH DRY-SLOTTING. BUT FOR THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE TRI-STATE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION BANDING TO LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF TRI-STATE AS UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TUE
NIGHT INTO WED MORNING CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDED PRECIP.
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CAA AND DYNAMIC COOLING TO CHANGE PRECIP TO
SNOW ACROSS INTERIOR AND ELEVATED PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND NE NJ...WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW/SLEET AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP IS LOW AT THIS
POINT...BUT WILL MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO AND REFLECTE IN SNOW
TOTALS.
I think its primarily rain Tuesday (a lot) and then we will have to see what happens on the back end. as others have said back end snow doesn't really happen to often for coastal areas. we shall see.

jman wind threat looks to have diminished. thank god! with saturated ground last thing we need is strong winds.

FOR THE WIND THREAT...ECMWF AND GFS SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR 950 MB
WINDS TO REACH 55-60 KT LATE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. A
STRONG LOW- LEVEL INVERSION WILL NOT ALLOW THIS ALL TO MIX
DOWN...BUT A PERIOD OF NE WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY EASTERN LI/SE CT TUE
AFT/EVE. HIGH WIND POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SLIGHT AT THIS POINT

Well they havent completely ruled it out so IMO it could still be a concern (and yes I mean concern as you are right about the saturation as I said before, which is high according to NWS map, not including this week). I think wind will all depending on how strong the LP is and I do not think that ha completely been ironed out yet. Verbatim snow stays just west of tri state snow map is nuts:

Verbatim and with temps GFS is a snowstorm for me and areas right around tristate : )

jmanley32 wrote:Well they havent completely ruled it out so IMO it could still be a concern (and yes I mean concern as you are right about the saturation as I said before, which is high according to NWS map, not including this week).  I think wind will all depending on how strong the LP is and I do not think that ha completely been ironed out yet.  Verbatim snow stays just west of tri state snow map is nuts:

From that map heavy snow plasters part of the tri-state area. 40 miles north and west of midtown get over a foot of snow, parts of the HV get over 20 inches.

I don't buy it because again like the pre Thanksgiving storm this his has all the makings of a nowcast and possibly over several days. I don't think anyone has a solid foundation yet on what this is going to do. Very very complex.

Yes CP , just nice to see snow possible in the area, before there was no chance now it appears there is becoming more of a chance, but yeah I said yesterday this is going to be a 2-4 day nowcast. Crazy.

HWO for city CT coast and southern westchester still feels wind will be a issue, but added wintry precip to it : )

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BIT OR WINTRY PRECIP...BUT MAINLY
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...INTENSITY...AND TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

12z nam looks good for backend snows

I guess no ones interested in another rain storm very quiet this morning on the site

12z GFS has the low just east of LI and stalling just to the north of NYC. Heavy rain to snow showers for the coast.

GFS shows much less rain, this still is not ironed out, still lots of discrepancies.

NWs first snow map, everything to the north as of now.

jmanley32 wrote:NWs first snow map, everything to the north as of now.

Interesting map for Orange County, 1-2 inches on the southern border and 8-10 inches in the extreme northwest portion. I doubt that will verify one way or the other, but I guess it's as good a first guess as any here. It also doesn't include anything for possible Thursday retrograde.

There's still so much to iron out this week.