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Official Long Range Thread 5.0

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:15 pm

ECMWF is WORLDS better with Miller A storms and the GFS (like now) is lost. The EURO has been hounding on the Miller A outcome and the GFS still trying to run this storm into the block is making this easy as to what model to follow in this instance!!

So please do not speak of the GooFus IMHO until we are around Thursday when it starts to catch on or Friday.

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:34 pm

LOL one day before, whomever goes by GFS in the pros is possibly going to have a last minute forecast lol
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Post by sroc4 Sun Dec 14, 2014 5:55 pm

Larry Cosgrove:


Hey everyone....

With the holidays coming on I figured I needed to start saying something about the sequence of THREE impressive storms which will affect parts of the nation.

1) December 19 - 23. "The Appetizer". Cyclogenesis near Galveston TX (origins in system now off the coast of California), then track to Columbus GA....Fayetteville NC.....200 miles south of Nantucket MA. Heavy rain and thunder Texas and Deep South, some severe weather threats close to the coast. Steady rain along and above Interstate 20 with snow and sleet involved in lower/middle Appalachia. Rain that forms along the Atlantic Coastal Plain above Richmond VA to Boston MA will shift to mostly snow. Threats for accumulating snow are rising in the Mid-Atlantic region (DCA....BWI....PHL....NYC), and if ECMWF scheme is right at least moderate amounts of the white stuff are possible.


2) December 22 - 26. The "Big Kahuna" storm. Upper level disturbance digs into northern Mexico. Reforms into frontal wave near Corpus Christi TX. Deepens as shortwave energy drops southward from Montana, which sets up a east, then northeast motion. Estimated track now is along Gulf Coast through New Orleans LA, then Valdosta GA....Raleigh NC....Salisbury MD....Concord NH....Fort Kent ME. Yes, path scenario is shifting rightward on models and may trend to purely coastal solution that analogs favor! This system will drop lots of snow on Appalachia and perhaps the lower Great Lakes, while being the draw for much colder air east of the Rocky Mountains.

3) December 27 - 30. "The Finisher" looks to organize near Brownsville TX, progress to Jacksonville FL, then move up and off of the East Coast by 125 - 175 miles through the 40/70 Benchmark. Analogs and ensemble depictions point toward a serious snow event in parts of Dixie and the Atlantic Coastal Plain. And yes, it looks VERY cold east of the Rocky Mountains in the 11 - 15 day time frame.

Happy Holidays!

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:00 pm

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 2 Post-40-0-88884300-1418597821

Euro ensembles...nice

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:06 pm

Euro Ens still loving the pattern by Xmas and beyond

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 2 Eps_z500a_noram_45

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 6:08 pm

Euro Ens have a favorably placed 50/50 low for the 21st storm 

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 2 Eps_mslpa_noram_25

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:05 pm

So cosgrove seems to think a inland track for the 22-25th time frame (did mention possible coastal shift)? Wouldn't that inland track mean rain for us east of the track, or will it be cold enough regardless (yes I know it is way long term, but just thought this was our biggest threat)?
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:29 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro also shows the beginnings of what looks to be our possible xmas storm (and it looks strong even way down there.  Man imagine if we get SECS, MECS and maybe even a HECS every 10 days or so like the systems have been happening the area will be buried and many of us will be right on the high end of the snowfall contest.

Someone please explain HECS, MECS and SECS!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:30 pm

We would never get snow with an inland track. Best case scenario there would be snow changing to rain. It's so far off though it's not even worth discussing.


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:31 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:30 pm

Oh syo, lol it took me a explaining too:

Significant east coast storm
major east coast storm
historic east coast storm

At least thats what I remember being told but I am so tired I could be wrong.
: )
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Post by Guest Sun Dec 14, 2014 7:33 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh syo, lol it took me a explaining too:

Significant east coast storm
major east coast storm
historic east coast storm

At least thats what I remember being told but I am so tired I could be wrong.
: )

Funny that was my guess.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:14 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Oh syo, lol it took me a explaining too:

Significant east coast storm
major east coast storm
historic east coast storm

At least thats what I remember being told but I am so tired I could be wrong.
: )

BECS = Biblical East Coast Storm - blizzard of 1996 and Superstorm 1993 are considered under this category

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:16 pm

LOL mugs, we can only wish!
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Post by amugs Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:17 pm

Let's concentrate on the 21st timeframe storm - it could change things drastically for the next storm by its track but the euro is barking at this set up - do not get confused with what we saw last year in late feb into March - PV squashed that pattern and this is not that - 50/50 looks textbook so far and the euro is handling this Miller A and has very well.

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Post by amugs Sun Dec 14, 2014 8:20 pm

Jman - it can happen and there was also a lesser known storm in the late 1800's and not the great 1888 blizzard but one in 1890's I thikn 1893 - snow from Pannsacola Fla all the way up to Maine - 4-8" in the south and 12"+ from Va up to Maine. Robert Brikner talked about this at a worksop guest lecture I hear last fall.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:25 pm

@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Oh syo, lol it took me a explaining too:

Significant east coast storm
major east coast storm
historic east coast storm

At least thats what I remember being told but I am so tired I could be wrong.
: )

BECS = Biblical East Coast Storm - blizzard of 1996 and Superstorm 1993 are considered under this category
The blizzard of 1996 was my all time favorite snowstorm. Days before the event, it was forecasted to be a southern slider with snow only making it up to Virginia. Four days before the storm hit, Janice Huff was calling for flurries. By 48 hours, the forecast was for a moderate event. By the time we got within 24 hours, forecasters were upping amounts big time. The snow started in my then hometown of Bloomfield at 9am sunday morning, and didn't stop until 1pm monday afternoon. I ended up with 29 inches! I can't even describe how I felt, just pure weenie bliss. Hope to relive that magnitude of a storm sometime soon!
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Post by mako460 Sun Dec 14, 2014 9:47 pm

I think you need to add the BLESS, the Biblical Lake Effect Snow Storm; ala Buffalo this year!

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Post by LB3147 Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:21 pm

nutley...i grew up down the shore...'93 scared the heck out of mean...'96 just kept snowing.....'03 was mean....'10 was meaner (remember walking out of the bar in midtown manhattan that night to a strike of blue lignting/thunder) Hurricane Gloria, '93 and Sandy are the only times in the last 30 years the New York Stock Exchange was closed

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Post by docstox12 Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:30 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
@amugs wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Oh syo, lol it took me a explaining too:

Significant east coast storm
major east coast storm
historic east coast storm

At least thats what I remember being told but I am so tired I could be wrong.
: )

BECS = Biblical East Coast Storm - blizzard of 1996 and Superstorm 1993 are considered under this category
The blizzard of 1996 was my all time favorite snowstorm. Days before the event, it was forecasted to be a southern slider with snow only making it up to Virginia. Four days before the storm hit, Janice Huff was calling for flurries. By 48 hours, the forecast was for a moderate event. By the time we got within 24 hours, forecasters were upping amounts big time. The snow started in my then hometown of Bloomfield at 9am sunday morning, and didn't stop until 1pm monday afternoon. I ended up with 29 inches! I can't even describe how I felt, just pure weenie bliss. Hope to relive that magnitude of a storm sometime soon!

Perfect illustration of why you never really know whats going to happen until a few hours before the storm hits and you look at the radar.Boxing day was the same.A few days before it was going OTS and then that day, there was red all over the NWS map.Models are for guidance purposes only.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Dec 14, 2014 10:46 pm

As I recall the storm that was the day after Christmas I believe 2009 or 2010, was forecasted to not be much and like on the 24th or 25th they starting calling for major blizzard. I was in VT. I remember driving back on the 26th and slowly(as we headed toward the coast) watching the snow start to come down at a increasing rate as we got closer and closer to NYC area. By the time we got back it was in full force with several inches and we here in Yonkers ended up with about 21 inches by morning. I would love a storm like that again.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:08 pm

Difference between Euro and GFS at H5 are like night & day. 00z GFS is shooting the southern energy into the Ohio Valley. If the block to the north is real, I can not see that bring a solution 

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:12 pm

The entire set up on the gfs is too far north. Northern stream hanging back, southern stream shoots into OV. Ridge not as stout either. Good news I guess is the 50-50 

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:22 pm

Yeah Frank, I saw that too. I was reading Mt. Holly's forecast disco and they said that it is the GFS' typical bias; that it commonly develops the low and main forcing mechanisms too far north in these situations. They noted that the hi-res GFS seems more plausible, which is more in line with the UKMET through Saturday, which THAT is quite similar to the EURO. They weighted their forecast as 50% EURO, 25% hi-res GFS/UKMET.Here's the segment:
/
/
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THIS PERIOD HAS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY. LOW
PRESSURE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MODELED TO FORM TO OUR SOUTH AND MOVE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TO OUR NORTH COUPLED WITH A LOW
TO OUR NORTHEAST MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY OF HEIGHTS TO REBOUND NORTH
IN THIS PERIOD AND ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO LINGER. AS A RESULT, THIS
LOW COULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK SOUTH AND EAST OF US FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. A MORE INLAND TRACK WOULD
LEAD TO A WARMER SOLUTION. THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS ARE MORE
INTENSE IN TERMS OF LOWER PRESSURE, TRACKING A LOW FROM ALABAMA
NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. THE CMC MODEL IS QUITE A BIT MORE
SUPPRESSED AND SHEARS THE SYSTEM INTO PIECES KEEPING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, DISCOUNTING THIS. WE ALSO HAVE THE
12Z GFS WHICH HAS A LOW TRACKING TO BUFFALO BEFORE FORMING AN
AWKWARD SECONDARY LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. APPARENT MODEL BIASES
APPEAR TO BE AT WORK WITH THE GFS AS IT FORMS THE LOW VERY FAR
NORTH OVER TEXAS. A HIGHER RESOLUTION GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
UKMET. THE UKMET HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ECMWF TILL SATURDAY
MORNING BUT IS MUCH WEAKER. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST WILL REFLECT 1/2
00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, 1/4 HIRES GFS AND 1/4 UKMET. THIS PLACES
NO EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHLY INTENSE ECMWF OR THE HIGHLY SUSPECT 12Z
GFS SOLUTION.

WITH THIS IN MIND, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
THE GULF COAST TO EASTERN TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING. THEN A COASTAL
LOW OFF VIRGINA BEACH DEVELOPS WHICH THEN SLIDES EAST/NORTHEAST OF
OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS TRACK ALLOWS FOR BOTH CHANCES OF RAIN AND
SNOW FROM ROUGHLY THE FALL LINE AND POINTS TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL SECTIONS MOST LIKELY TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME.
INTERIOR AREAS SUCH AS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE STAYING ALL SNOW. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE CENTERED ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. DETAILS ARE SILL UNCERTAIN IN THE EXACT TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO TO FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:27 pm

The Para GFS just loses the western ridge. I think that model forecasts for a parallel universe

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Post by rb924119 Sun Dec 14, 2014 11:32 pm

Lmao well, according to every theoretical physicist that is actually a very likely thing ahaha I saw a special on the origins of the universe the other day....omg my mind was jello for the next two days. Crazy stuff, man. I definitely like our chances for an east coast system during this timeframe, but I'm holding off on getting excited unless it is still there on Thursday's runs lol

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