Re: Official Long Range Thread 5.0

[Frank_Wx]

The Para GFS just loses the western ridge. I think that model forecasts for a parallel universe

[rb924119]

Lmao well, according to every theoretical physicist that is actually a very likely thing ahaha I saw a special on the origins of the universe the other day....omg my mind was jello for the next two days. Crazy stuff, man. I definitely like our chances for an east coast system during this timeframe, but I'm holding off on getting excited unless it is still there on Thursday's runs lol

[Frank_Wx]

Haha

Well, GGEM supresses the storm but looks  nothing like the GFS at H5. More like the euro 

Me like

[Frank_Wx]

Ukmet in euro camp 

[SoulSingMG]

As I recall the storm that was the day after Christmas I believe 2009 or 2010, was forecasted to not be much and like on the 24th or 25th they starting calling for major blizzard.  I was in VT. I remember driving back on the 26th and slowly(as we headed toward the coast) watching the snow start to come down at a increasing rate as we got closer and closer to NYC area.  By the time we got back it was in full force with several inches and we here in Yonkers ended up with about 21 inches by morning.  I would love a storm like that again.

THIS.

I remember watching this storm on Christmas Eve of 2010...and being sad it wasn't gonna be much for our area. Then it all changed once the 00z's rolled Christmas morning. Blizzard Warnings were hoisted by midday on Christmas and I was jumping around the room watching Lee Goldberg call this a potentially historic storm. And boy WAS it. Snow came down harder than I had ever seen by late afternoon on the 26th. Cars and buses were literally stuck all over Manhattan, drifts were already covering cars by dark and whole neighborhoods were left unplowed for days because the DOS couldn't plow during much of the storm due to snowfall rates & it took them serious time to catch up. The City took a public beating on lack of preparedness. Anyway, 24 inches later in Harlem, I was a happy man and want another one of THOSE this winter!

[Frank_Wx]

The euro still has an east coast storm but the way it handles H5 is inconsistent. It holds back northern stream energy and the storm comes out looking sloppy with warming mid levels. Good news is the High to the north and 50-50 low. Still a long way to go. Have to get through Wednesdays system first. Then maybe models come to an agreement.

[Frank_Wx]

Coastal storms seems to be the norm so far this season. The players are definitely on the field for another one next weekend. I've noticed that H5 setups have varied from storm to storm. Same goes for this one. We have a psuedo Rex block with a 50-50 to work with. Euro seemed to hold back northern stream energy which may have been a result of the collapsing western ridge. If we can get that to remain intact, the northern stream will dig and the block to the north will help consolidate everything off the coast. Great potential here, but there's work that has to be done and the PNA could screw this up. But we'll see.

[jmanley32]

I don't understand last night euro. Potent system deepens to 989 but gets squashed south by the high? I thought u said this would not be a issue frank or is this a viable solution? Ensembles have many suppressed way south like dreaded last year's end others have a major dump of snow. Thoughts on that run? Thank goodness it's still a week off.

[amugs]

Ukmet in euro camp 

Would you differ - they are both run by the Europeans - English to be exact!!! Nothing wrong there.

Here is HPC - starting to bark about the precip - need that 50/50 low in good position and boom IMO!



Okay, 1983 blizzard was probably the worse non call -went to school in the morning and Mr. G on the radio - there were no tv shows like we have today bringing the news to you only radio - said 1-3 possible and the storm will be sliding to our South - at 1PM a blizzard warning went up for the TC Metro Area and we got frickin' hammered with some of the most insane snow rates I have ever seen NY - boxing day was good as well called xmass afternoon as i watched the weather channel but Bilzzard of '96 Al Roker and Bill were calling Friday night at the 11PM newscast before teh Sunday onslaught - not a shocker like the 1983 storm IMHO - how in world do you go from 8AM 1-3" to an all out blizzard where we record 18-25" for the area in 5 hours - REALLY?? I did not give a crap I jumped for joy - but what sucked was it was a Friday - figures - spent the weekend breaking my 13 year old back shoveling my house, grandparents both sides out.

[amugs]

This is what will eb interesting if it pans out - we need that 50/50 to hold and not kick east and Thursday we know a hell of a lot more after that low spins up to the 50/50 region but I like this rain to snow progression - hey I'll take it

[amugs]

This from earthlight

It looks likely at this point that a significant warming event will propagate beginning in the next week or two. The Euro is now splitting the 70mb vortex w/ another disruption by Day 4-5 and has a tremendous warming event at 10mb by Days 7-10. This is the first signal of this magnitude so far and it's progressing rapidly toward Eurasia by Days 8-10 on the Euro.





Pattern taking shape as indicated by Frank!!!

[sroc4]

Difference between Euro and GFS at H5 are like night & day. 00z GFS is shooting the southern energy into the Ohio Valley. If the block to the north is real, I can not see that bring a solution 

I would think by now you would not even look at the GFS or P GFS and include it in the forecast discussion.  Until the GFS or its recently separated conjoined twin, the P-GFS, agrees with the Euro, Ukie, or CMC it has no wt in my mind.  Of course its off the wall solns are always there and IF it ever scores a coup I will give it its props.  But even if it does, a broken clock is right twice a day; even the sun shines on a dogs ass from time to time.  Statistically speaking, this winter esp, your best bet is to simply stay away from its soln.   It can tag along like the annoying 12 yr old brother your mom forced you to take to the movies with you and your friends.  Its there blabbing gibberish most of which you and your friends should ignore, but of course you never know.  

A subtle trend over the last day or so is to have our 50/50 LP slight stronger which would lead to a track that is less N to NE and more NE to E.  A slightly more suppressed look.  The Euro ens mean is E of the Operational and is E of the BM by a decent amount overnight.  I am going to start really paying attention starting with today's runs and try and comment on it by tomorrow.  Going to have to watch closely to what the models do with the mid week system as it passes N and E into the Canadian maritime to figure out the 21-23rd.  Interesting week its gonna be I reckon.

[rb924119]

I think the reason why the EURO Op looks more suppressed than previous runs is because it closes off an ugly-a$$ low at H5. This is what allows the mid-levels to warm ahead of it, and as the pattern progresses east, so does the surface low. This is also the cause for the collapse of the ridge. The ensembles look much better at H5 than the Op. Long way to go.

[rb924119]

Yep. The EURO Op actually anti-cyclonically wave-breaks the ridge, which helps to close off the H5 trough.

[Snow88]

12z GFS had some massive changes at 12z but it now shreds the storm apart

[sroc4]

12z GFS had some massive changes at 12z but it now shreds the storm apart

And we toss.

[sroc4]

12z GFS had some massive changes at 12z but it now shreds the storm apart

Just took at look at H5 vort. STJ energy is way too fast on the 12 z which is the known bias of the model. It also moves our 50/50 L out to fast as well. Expect the GFS to catch on by Saturday

[Snow88]

Strong low just south of LI at 156. Warm for coastal areas. 12z Para.

[Frank_Wx]

Para GFS actually looks pretty good. There's just not enough digging with the northern stream so H5 closes off too far north. But it has the pieces the Euro has. I'm hoping the PNA out west doesn't screw this up for us

[Snow88]

12z GGEM is now on board. Huge shift from the 0z run.

[Frank_Wx]

Yup, looks good. There's some little things that need to be worked out, like placement of 850 mb low. We need to shift the system further south

[jmanley32]

LOL sroc by sat, so basically the GFS is otherwise useless as it will be upon us in a day or so around after that.

[jmanley32]

Is this storm have the potential to bring good snows to lower Westchester and NYC?

[sroc4]

Yup, looks good. There's some little things that need to be worked out, like placement of 850 mb low. We need to shift the system further south

You meant North right Frank. Cause 850mb L as well as the surface LP tracks too far S for major impacts on the run.

[sroc4]

LOL sroc by sat, so basically the GFS is otherwise useless as it will be upon us in a day or so around after that.

lol..yes. Even if it catches on sooner you could easily make a very accuarte forecast if you used the Ukie Euro CMC alone. I havent looked at the Para but it appears based on what the others have commented it is at least is playing the right sport...this run. GFS is playing cricket while the rest of the models are playing football.

[Snow88]

HPC

[WOLVES1]

Jb said something about gfs ran an experimental upgrade and it showed a big storm. Does anybody know anything about this?

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