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Official Long Range Thread 5.0

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:24 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:12z GFS is weak, strung out, and mainly out to sea for the 18th storm. EURO is going to lose this battle, in my opinion. Pattern supports the GFS.

IMO we are def going to get cyclogenisis, it just gets started too late as it passes LI. Rb somewhere a few posts back made some great points about the initial surface LP along the frontal boundary and why the sharp western side cutoffs to the precip shield until cyclogenesis can occur. Put another way until some phasing occurs which if the 12z GFS were to verify would occur too late, but its close. LI however still sees precip, but will prob be rain verbatim. Again with the blocking to the N and E not quite there yet(although better) and/or the PNA (western ridge) not amped enough as Frank says pattern most likely supports warm/weak, and/or OTS for us. However that being said its not dead yet. Ill give it until Friday 12z esp if the GEFS disagree with the op and esp if the Euro op and its ens holds serve on a western more amped track.

And before we get any responses that state once again another miss blah blah blah another let down blah blah blah this system was never really the one anyway. I myself like the 25th/26th time frame better than the 22nd/23rd, but both time frames need to cont to be monitored. All we can ask for for now is potential and there seems to be plenty of that on the table including another potential around the 29th +/- a day.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 15, 2015 12:25 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Something else to note in addition to what's already been said is that these systems that develop along cold fronts, strong fronts especially, typically have an incredibly sharp QPF cutoff due to the very strong subsidence caused by the thermally direct ageostrophic circulation at upper-levels (jet dynamics). Where that front is when this passes by will determine who sees precipitation and who doesn't. To me, I think this is going to be wet for those that do see any precip at all, because once the front moves through (temperatures begin to crash) the precip will end. Just my two cents. Also, the placement of the jet is not likely to be in a favorable location for large-scale ascent and precipitation. It's almost directly overhead (in coordination with the front, as is to be expected) instead of a couple hundred miles to our west, where we'd be in the right-entrance region.

This

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
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WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:10 pm

I'm not attacking anyone here.

I know you don't want to hear it sroc4 and this potential for Sunday night and Monday is only recent but you cannot deny the fact that we have gotten almost ZERO snow so far this winter. PLUS it's been really freakin' cold (way below normal) for almost 2 straight weeks now and the only significant storms we get during these 2 below normal weeks are on the days it gets warm and we get rain only to go into the ice box afterwards again. THE WINTER SO FAR SUCKS BALLS!! and for anyone to deny this or keep saying wait, wait, wait is frustrating. I'm not blaming anyone, but I'm pretty damn sure I speak for 95% of the people reading this.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:41 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I'm not attacking anyone here.

I know you don't want to hear it sroc4 and this potential for Sunday night and Monday is only recent but you cannot deny the fact that we have gotten almost ZERO snow so far this winter.  PLUS it's been really freakin' cold (way below normal) for almost 2 straight weeks now and the only significant storms we get during these 2 below normal weeks are on the days it gets warm and we get rain only to go into the ice box afterwards again.  THE WINTER SO FAR SUCKS BALLS!! and for anyone to deny this or keep saying wait, wait, wait is frustrating.  I'm not blaming anyone, but I'm pretty damn sure I speak for 95% of the people reading this.
I agree with everything you say. Since most amateur and pro forecasters were calling for an above normal to epic winter, if this continues this winter would go down as the biggest epic fails in recent memory. I for one called for 76 inches which now looks like a pipe dream. We still have time to salvage this season; I'd say a good 8 weeks, But I'm growing more and more impatient with this cold-warm up and rain-back to cold pattern we're in. We need the AO to go negative and stay there. We also need a ridge out west and not collapse when a coastal threatens us. Last but not least, a -NAO to slow down the pattern. Currently the pattern is too progressive. If these teleconnections line up, end of this month and February could rock. If they don't line up by the end of the month, a lot of us will be throwing in the towel.
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Post by Guest Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:51 pm

@nutleyblizzard wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:I'm not attacking anyone here.

I know you don't want to hear it sroc4 and this potential for Sunday night and Monday is only recent but you cannot deny the fact that we have gotten almost ZERO snow so far this winter.  PLUS it's been really freakin' cold (way below normal) for almost 2 straight weeks now and the only significant storms we get during these 2 below normal weeks are on the days it gets warm and we get rain only to go into the ice box afterwards again.  THE WINTER SO FAR SUCKS BALLS!! and for anyone to deny this or keep saying wait, wait, wait is frustrating.  I'm not blaming anyone, but I'm pretty damn sure I speak for 95% of the people reading this.
I agree with everything you say. Since most amateur and pro forecasters were calling for an above normal to epic winter, if this continues this winter would go down as the biggest epic fails in recent memory. I for one called for 76 inches which now looks like a pipe dream. We still have time to salvage this season; I'd say a good 8 weeks, But I'm growing more and more impatient with this cold-warm up and rain-back to cold pattern we're in. We need the AO to go negative and stay there. We also need a ridge out west and not collapse when a coastal threatens us. Last but not least, a -NAO to slow down the pattern. Currently the pattern is too progressive. If these teleconnections line up, end of this month and February could rock. If they don't line up by the end of the month, a lot of us will be throwing in the towel.

Yes. Well said. Simple.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:54 pm

The EURO has a large storm signal between the 22nd-25th. It takes time to eject so its pushed back to the 25th, but I think the time frame is closer to the 22nd. EIther way...that is the storm to watch and the one I think has a chance.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:07 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The EURO has a large storm signal between the 22nd-25th. It takes time to eject so its pushed back to the 25th, but I think the time frame is closer to the 22nd. EIther way...that is the storm to watch and the one I think has a chance.
Typical Euro bias of holding back energy too long. Nice strong signal for a storm, since all the major models are showing it in one form or another.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:15 pm

Euro deepends 25th storm to 978, focus on that one all models have been signal this one as have Frank and others pointed out. Question Frank, I will be about 100 miles east of here from sat-mon, will I have a risk of heavy rain or a slight possibility of snow? Just trying to make our plans for sunday evening. Also verbatim the snow totals for the Euro by day ten on the 25th ain't bad and I think have a good chance at going up. Lets hope this one finally delivers. I remember Frank saying numerous times even weeks back the end of January is a time to have a good shot.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:23 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Euro deepends 25th storm to 978, focus on that one all models have been signal this one as have Frank and others pointed out.  Question Frank, I will be about 100 miles east of here from sat-mon, will I have a risk of heavy rain or a slight possibility of snow?  Just trying to make our plans for sunday evening.  Also verbatim the snow totals for the Euro by day ten on the 25th ain't bad and I think have a good chance at going up.  Lets hope this one finally delivers.  I remember Frank saying numerous times even weeks back the end of January is a time to have a good shot.

You could run into heavy rain on Sunday. Not thinking snow right now. And yes...end of Jan. into early February has been the time period Iv'e been interested (Sroc too, I believe) since January 1st. This is the post I made on December 28th. Clearly, the "thaw" is not going to happen but everything else has or will verify, including the very minor snow chances from last week.

Jan 1st-2nd: Below normal temps.

Jan 3rd: Above normal temps with rain (maybe snow north and west of NYC)

Jan 4th-12th: Below normal temps. with 1-2 snow chances

Jan 14th-19th: Above normal temps.

Jan 20th-30th: Normal to below normal temps




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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:34 pm

Syo I moved our convo to the banter thread.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
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Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:37 pm

again this was my post from the other thread yesterday morning re the sunday monday threat:

We are going to have to keep a close eye on the Sunday night into Monday time frame. There may not be enough cold air available for this system but the operational models have all of a sudden been showing a little something brewing off the coast. Will the ridge in the west cont to trend stronger? Will enough blocking be established to slow things down enough for the ingredients to come together along the coast and can we generate cold enough air for frozen precip? Remember this all maybe OTS. In fact odds are still pointing in that direction for now. But what should be quite clear is that the pattern continues to evolve in a positive way for frozen precip in the NE.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 2:47 pm

sroc, been looking at the euro ensembles and some of them have the 18/19th storm a real beast, albeit probably rain but dang some are near 970mb, if on the off chance it happened and deepened that much and in time could we be looking at snow even though it looks to be a warm storm? Wouldn't that allow it to keep things colder?
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:12 pm

In theory yes, but I believe it deepens to late for us. The cold air arrives after the precip moves out. Im not entirely ruling out the chance for back end snow but we all know how well that works out. On Todays euro ens run many LP centers have trended further east compared to yesterday.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:26 pm

12z Euro ensembles (about half) have moderate to huge hits 22-25th timeframe, a couple drooling weenie ensembles in there too.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 15, 2015 3:27 pm

Holy crap the EURO Ens are nice, like Jman said,

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 15, 2015 4:11 pm

I know we are discounting Sun -Mon storm - not any confluence to work with here with the spread of the ens are pretty interesting - not saying we get anything but it is interesting here you go

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 B7aqEMdIcAAVIfy

MADONNE Jan 22 and beyond or forward

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 GZ_PN_216_0000

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 GZ_PN_240_0000

MOTHER OF PEARL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 Test8

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 21, 2015 12:20 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 Gefs_z500anom_nh_25

The GEFS, scoring better than the EPS of late, seem to be faster than the OP in rolling the western ridge east due to the broad scale trough spanning the NE Pac. and Aleutians. As consequence, the east coast storm gets shunned out to sea. In order to make this storm work, the Pac trough needs to slow down so the ridge maintains composure over the PNA region. OP models are trying to do that. 

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 Gefs_z500anom_nh_41

It looks like we can expect slight moderate by Day 10. The ridge is now over the eastern U.S., the PV shifts back into the Arctic, and there are low heights over the EPO/PNA regions. The MJO is likely in the COD at this time and the WPO is also projected to shoot positive. 

Official Long Range Thread 5.0 - Page 40 Gefs_z500anom_nh_61

Day 15 the pattern could get favorable again for colder than normal conditions. The -EPO returns along with a possible +PNA. I've been saying I don't expect high latitude blocking to develop until February, but the GEFS is making subtle progress in making that happen. Large EPO ridge could be trying to connect with a Scandanvian ridge through the Arctic. I would suspect the PV to be further south with this kind of look verbatim. Perhaps the GEFS are hinting at a pattern change that would likely go into full effect in early February. 

In sum, thread the needle storm next weekend (I'm against it for now), moderation the following week, and a pattern change end of this month into early Feb. 

Possible...so we'll see. Let's hope.

Jan. 9th..called the pattern change. Sroc was also excited about this time period.


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