Re: Wx Banter Thread 1.0

[SNOW MAN]

Hey Jman...I feel your pain brother.  I think we all know your love for the snow.  Im pretty sure there was nothing more than some friendly ribbing going on.  

Exactly Doc.

[sroc4]

Very interesting read by Dr. Ryan Maue regarding the GFS upgrade vs the Euro: (did not add the images)

February 2 11:59 PM
During the past few weeks, I've been working with the new GFS upgrade model. To some it's a shiny new toy, to others it's simply a Mercury Sable with a new paint job. While that car was popular a decade ago, does that mean we should trust it today?
The new GFS model is more a "bunny hop" as I described it to the NY Times and Mashable ... or anyone that would listen. I'm pretty good with those buzz phrases in the print media. The horizontal resolution is vastly improved from T574 to T1534. The T is the number of spectral waves that fit around the Earth's sphere. For reference, the T574 reduced down to 27-km grid spacing in the middle latitudes while the new T1534 iteration is 13-km. However, the vertical resolution has not changed. Nope.
What about ECMWF? It runs at T1279 or about 14-16 km globally. WeatherBELL receives the full-resolution data from ECMWF -- for EVERYTHING. Not like Accuweather or WSI or whoever else. Their maps look like blocky Legos. But what makes ECMWF superior as a model is the vertical resolution. GFS has 62 levels while ECMWF has more than a 130. Those extra levels are spaced throughout the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and up near the tropopause and in the stratosphere. GFS could definitely stand to have a few more vertical levels. But that's very costly computationally. Also, the GFS model has been tuned and fudge-factored for a decade. It's hard to just reboot the thing from scratch and expect it to work out of the box spectacularly.
Recent research has discussed just why ECMWF succeeded in model Hurricane Sandy in 2012 while GFS sent it to Portugal at 6-days. Nick Bassill ran some very intriguing WRF simulations (paper: Link to GRL). Here's the abstract:

The extremely damaging Hurricane Sandy (2012) is noteworthy for the significant track bifurcation among several forecast models approximately 6–7 days before landfall. The operational versions of the ECMWF GFS models exemplify this difference over their runs early in Sandy's life cycle, as the former routinely forecast a storm which would make a U.S. landfall, while the latter routinely forecast a track toward the central North Atlantic. This was also generally true of their respective ensemble members. This paper demonstrates that these differences were caused not by resolution or initial condition differences but rather due almost exclusively to choice of cumulus parameterization. Simulations performed with the WRF model using an ECMWF-like cumulus parameterization in conjunction with GFS initial conditions yield forecasts whose accuracy is similar to that of ECMWF forecasts at extended time ranges (up to 1 week before landfall).
So, it's the physics stupid. Actually it's the convection.

Unfortunately, as far as I know, that component of the GFS model has not been changed. Thus, when the blizzard was supposedly forecast much better by GFS than ECMWF for NYC, it's premature to say it was right for the right reason. Also, it's not really very useful to compare two models in the short-range since they are ... different models. One doesn't know about the other and has no knowledge of how the other one is performing. However, humans surely do and put "all of their eggs in one basket" which was the ECMWF reinforced by (cringe) the NAM.
Now with the upcoming blizzard #3 potentially for New England come Thurs-Friday, we've got the GFS doing absolutely nothing with it while ECMWF 12z lowers the boom -- and then again with another Nor'easter Monday.
Here's the 00z GFS model forecast from Tuesday valid late Thursday evening. Nothing doing -- but very cold behind this Arctic front for New England. The 2-meter temperatures are hysterically cold from GFS, seemingly another bias that's been baked into the cake in this new "upgrade".

But the ECMWF ensembles have been insistently -- some very much so on a very powerful system for New England to dump 1-2 feet of snow on Boston. Mountains of snow and igloos will dot the landscape, which they can keep. I'm fine here in Florida.
The 51-ensemble EPS or Ensemble Prediction System provided by WeatherBELL is at full-resolution. You are getting to see everything there is as it comes directly from ECMWF.

This forecast challenge is very similar to the busted blizzard over NYC. We'll see if ECMWF is too far west again -- and if GFS is correct...

[jmanley32]

I just emailed wxbell asking if Dr. Maue (or their team) could answer definitely that the snowfall maps do or do not take into consideration snow, ice and rain.  If they include all types of precip they are useless, COMPLETELY!  And that would seem silly to me, a snow map is supposed to show snow, how hard can it be to make the adjustments to just factor in snow only?  They almost never verify which is why I want to know.  Lets see if they respond. Also, I would love to see him add a map that takes into consideration different ratios, clickable for each ratio, that would be really cool.

[RJB8525]

i hope TWC isn't giving this storm a jinx jumping on it already (Sunday storm)

[Quietace]

I just emailed wxbell asking if Dr. Maue (or their team) could answer definitely that the snowfall maps do or do not take into consideration snow, ice and rain.  If they include all types of precip they are useless, COMPLETELY!  And that would seem silly to me, a snow map is supposed to show snow, how hard can it be to make the adjustments to just factor in snow only?  They almost never verify which is why I want to know.  Lets see if they respond. Also,  I would love to see him add a map that takes into consideration different ratios, clickable for each ratio, that would be really cool.

Why would it include rain? Wxbell snow maps include snow and mixed precip such as sleet at 10:1...Its just one of the algorithms used by companies that make these products...SV use a much more conservative algorithm and usually if not always show less accumulations on a given storm due to the fact they take into account different factors for accumulation.
Its best to use soundings, and reference UL/surface temps to judge ratios and P type, then make the adjustment from total QPF yourself. Much more accurate.

[Frank_Wx]

I just emailed wxbell asking if Dr. Maue (or their team) could answer definitely that the snowfall maps do or do not take into consideration snow, ice and rain.  If they include all types of precip they are useless, COMPLETELY!  And that would seem silly to me, a snow map is supposed to show snow, how hard can it be to make the adjustments to just factor in snow only?  They almost never verify which is why I want to know.  Lets see if they respond. Also,  I would love to see him add a map that takes into consideration different ratios, clickable for each ratio, that would be really cool.

Why would it include rain? Wxbell snow maps include snow and mixed precip such as sleet at 10:1...Its just one of the algorithms used by companies that make these products...SV use a much more conservative algorithm and usually if not always show less accumulations on a given storm due to the fact they take into account different factors for accumulation.
Its best to use soundings, and reference UL/surface temps to judge ratios and P type, then make the adjustment from total QPF yourself. Much more accurate.

Correct.

See, you coulda just asked Ryan

[jmanley32]

YEAH i guess I'll see you all later....

[Frank_Wx]

Euro snow map



6z gfs looks the same

[Guest]

I'd be more than happy with that.

[SNOW MAN]

I'd be more than happy with that.

Ditto !

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I couldn't have painted that picture any better myself. Now move it down about 30 miles so skins and ace get into the brown bands and we all rejoice. Still a long way off but so far the models have been on this early and pretty consistent. At this point the overrunning and storm or storms seems likely what will waver is where this sets up. Right now that is a pretty wide band that could make a lot of people very happy. As always the chase will be fun and cause many hours of sleepless nights.

[Mathgod55]

Happy National Weathrmans Day to Frank and all the boys and girls. Keep up the great work you all do!

[RJB8525]

watching fox/mike woods this morning said between Sunday-Wednesday could see about average of 4-8", he pulling numbers out of his ass? never showed anything to back it lol

[jmanley32]

watching fox/mike woods this morning said between Sunday-Wednesday could see about average of 4-8", he pulling numbers out of his ass? never showed anything to back it lol

FWIW accuwx said the same 4-8 sun-mon. I would say at this time its 1-20 inches lol. sroc posted a thread on the possible event.

[jmanley32]

I had a amazing surprise last night, never expected especially in NY. I got home with my wife from school very late and the only parking spots were too hard snow and too deep to drive a sedan into so I got out and began a very slow shovel. I saw a plow coming down the road (private plow) and was like I wish I had one of those, then without notice he dropped his plow and honked and blasted into the snow piles and made m ultiple passes for me, I felt so bad I had no money on me but man, most people in my neighborhood are asses, like the guy who was looking out his window the whole time then yelled at us that we parked too close to his driveway 4 feet away is more than enough bud! Amazing string of luck, then he went on to help others too. I wish the best for that plow guy.

[Grselig]

I had a amazing surprise last night, never expected especially in NY.  I got home with my wife from school very late and the only parking spots were too hard snow and too deep to drive a sedan into so I got out and began a very slow shovel.  I saw a plow coming down the road (private plow) and was like I wish I had one of those, then without notice he dropped his plow and honked and blasted into the snow piles and made m ultiple passes for me, I felt so bad I had no money on me but man, most people in my neighborhood are asses, like the guy who was looking out his window the whole time then yelled at us that we parked too close to his driveway 4 feet away is more than enough bud!  Amazing string of luck, then he went on to help others too.  I wish the best for that plow guy.

Jman- nice story. Sometimes being nice is contagious and in the long run leads right back to the person being cool in the first place!

[sroc4]

I had a amazing surprise last night, never expected especially in NY.  I got home with my wife from school very late and the only parking spots were too hard snow and too deep to drive a sedan into so I got out and began a very slow shovel.  I saw a plow coming down the road (private plow) and was like I wish I had one of those, then without notice he dropped his plow and honked and blasted into the snow piles and made m ultiple passes for me, I felt so bad I had no money on me but man, most people in my neighborhood are asses, like the guy who was looking out his window the whole time then yelled at us that we parked too close to his driveway 4 feet away is more than enough bud!  Amazing string of luck, then he went on to help others too.  I wish the best for that plow guy.

Thats awesome man.  Make sure to pay it forward.  For your neighbor looking out the window...make sure to pay him back. He needs some yellow snow on his property.

[rb924119]

Figured I'd post this for anybody who's interested.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/timeless-battle-of-the-models-new-year-new-era/

[Frank_Wx]

I had a amazing surprise last night, never expected especially in NY.  I got home with my wife from school very late and the only parking spots were too hard snow and too deep to drive a sedan into so I got out and began a very slow shovel.  I saw a plow coming down the road (private plow) and was like I wish I had one of those, then without notice he dropped his plow and honked and blasted into the snow piles and made m ultiple passes for me, I felt so bad I had no money on me but man, most people in my neighborhood are asses, like the guy who was looking out his window the whole time then yelled at us that we parked too close to his driveway 4 feet away is more than enough bud!  Amazing string of luck, then he went on to help others too.  I wish the best for that plow guy.

Awesome

[RJB8525]

TWC: they've been on this for a bit now. kiss of death from them?

[SNOW MAN]

TWC: they've been on this for a bit now. kiss of death from them?

Get the bugle out and start blowing taps.

[carvin1079]

I think a lot of people need to stop hyping these storm by giving projected snowfall until at least 36 to 24 hours before because it just breaks our hearts

[docstox12]

TWC: they've been on this for a bit now. kiss of death from them?

Get the bugle out and start blowing taps.

EXACTLY, SNOW,LOL!

And wouldn't you know it, Frank spotting evidence that the front does not drop far south enough which would bring warmer air as far as the HV!!

TWC is NYC curse.....Boston blessing,LOL.

[jimv45]

relax docs we still should do well around here remember last storm that warm air never made it this far!

[SNOW MAN]

TWC: they've been on this for a bit now. kiss of death from them?

Get the bugle out and start blowing taps.

EXACTLY, SNOW,LOL!

And wouldn't you know it, Frank spotting evidence that the front does not drop far south enough which would bring warmer air as far as the HV!!

TWC is NYC curse.....Boston blessing,LOL.

Doc, This winter makes me feel like a kid that just got his favorite toy for Christmas and then Santa comes back and snatches it away. It has been heart breaking to say the least. As Mugs quoted a few days back "it's not over until the fat lady sings". We shall see what happens. Lets hope she sings loud enough for the SNOW GODS to hear.

[jmanley32]

I had a amazing surprise last night, never expected especially in NY.  I got home with my wife from school very late and the only parking spots were too hard snow and too deep to drive a sedan into so I got out and began a very slow shovel.  I saw a plow coming down the road (private plow) and was like I wish I had one of those, then without notice he dropped his plow and honked and blasted into the snow piles and made m ultiple passes for me, I felt so bad I had no money on me but man, most people in my neighborhood are asses, like the guy who was looking out his window the whole time then yelled at us that we parked too close to his driveway 4 feet away is more than enough bud!  Amazing string of luck, then he went on to help others too.  I wish the best for that plow guy.

Thats awesome man.  Make sure to pay it forward.  For your neighbor looking out the window...make sure to pay him back.  He needs some yellow snow on his property.

LMAO, ya I am going to steer clear of doing that, then he WILL have something to complain about! I pay them no mind, its all street parking, as long as you do not park in front of someones driveway or in front of a traffic device or fire hydrant everything else is fair game, but you must be parallel to the curb, which can be hard in the snow, I saw someone get a ticket for sticking way out into a already narrowed 2 way street into almost a one way street. One thing that really burns me is the people who build snow walls and then park their car at the from of the opening and spray down the snow with water to turn it to ice so its a locked in parking area for 4 cars that no one else can use, I plan to report this one and I mean ONE particular family who does this every year. I so want to go just chop it down buy a dead car put plates on it and when they are alt work have that plow guy bust open the wall put the car there and leave it, except I would have to move it from 9am-11am on Fridays except during high amounts of snow. Other people who think a cone or a board can save them a street spot which is illegal I just get out and throw then on the sidewalk lol, one time a woman came out and yelled at me, I said ok go ahead call the cops, its illegal to do what you did not me, and if anything happens to my car overnight I know whos door to knock on with the police chief who I know personally, that shut her up lol. Sorry for this huge rant but I am hoping someone feels all this pain in the ass stuff. PEOPLE WHO HAVE A DRIVEWAY AND USE THE STREET INSTEAD! TOTALLY UNFAIR IN A ALREADY OVERCROWDED NEIGHBORHOOD. Please I hope someone agrees with me.

[Guest]

Was there a lot of change in the Euro between the 12z and the 00z Frank posted this morning or should I just mentally shift the storm north a bit?

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