Re: Official Long Range Thread 6.0

by Guest Fri Jan 16, 2015 9:59 pm

Thinking about driving up to my parents house in Olivebridge, NY. North Central Ulster county for Sunday night Monday storm. What do you guys think are my chances for 6+ there. By the way we got 41 inches there during the 1993 "superstorm"

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:09 pm

As has been the case this winter, whenever a potential storm shows up with an amped up ridge out west in the LR, as we draw closer to the event, the storm weakens when the ridge collapses and flattens out. That's the main feature I'll be watching for the potential big ticket event late next week. If that western ridge holds up, we'll be in business. Like Frank said, the models can't handle the impending pattern change. I think once Sunday's event passes through, the models will start to settle down. Until then, expect to see some wild swings. I think this storm could finally deliver us the goods, but the way this winter has gone, I won't bet the mortgage on it just yet.

by **sroc4** Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:19 pm

Don't sleep on that clipper either for Wed.

by **nutleyblizzard** Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:27 pm

sroc4 wrote:Don't sleep on that clipper either for Wed.

With the Sunday storm still currently forecast to remain on the strong side, it might very well hinder the development of our clipper. We need the Sunday storm to haul out of here, or our clipper to slow down so it can have room to amplify.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:03 pm

Nutley is right. Lack of spacing and the ULL might be trying to absorb some of the H5 energy. If the clipper can dig more it'll have room to deepen.

by **Snow88** Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:57 am

Navgem for next weekend What a Face

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 O88c3d

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:55 am

Don't think 6+ chances are good at all up there syo.Less qpf N and W plus too warm for all snow.JMHO

Incredible snow amt in March 1993.Remember people saying out in Lake Wallenpaupack area in PA they had 36 inches.Those all snow areas got clobbered.I had 18 iches, 3 inches of sleet, when the changeover occured.Before that, it was a blizzard.If the storm had tracked a little bit east, Mahwah NJ would have had that 30 plus inches. Another very close obne.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:37 am

That storm passed almost directly over NYC yet they got almost 11 inches of snow before the change. We received 23 inches but as Doc was saying the last 4 inches was sleet. I didn't have a snow blower than and I remember that top level of sleet was like shoveling coal it was so heavy. Places in central NY like Syracuse had 40 inches none of it lake effect. That was a terrible path for a storm to take for us yet we still got hammered.

by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:40 am

more than 2 weeks after that storm on April 4th I was fishing for trout on the Esopus Creek in NW Ulster County north of Phoenecia and was walking around in over 2 feet of snow and 55 degree temps. Surreal.

by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:48 am

Hey sroc4, nutleyblizzard and Frank. For what it's worth the NWS has been real accurate this season and they updated overnight and made 2 changes to their forecasts.

1. For Wednesday they have our area receiving about .30 QPF but mixing with rain on Wednesday(of course) and

2. They seem to have lost the storm threat in the day 6/7 range and even drastically cut down on QPF forecast for this time.

Not Good!!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:55 am

The pattern is changing after the 21st like I said at the G2g, whether there's a storm on the 23rd, 27th, or even early February is anyone's guess. But I do think we'll get something. I truly do

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:39 am

12z GFS is exploding with potential

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:42 am

Looks like next weekend precip is ots, HP over the Great Lakes and New England.... but still a long way to go

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:48 am

Right Janet we need that -Nao

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:53 am

Everything still zonal for the most part, a few hints of change, but overall ugh... very long range eye candy for Feb. 1-2 geek

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:07 pm

Frank what are u seeing on 12z gfs? Nothing on surface us it all h5 potentisl?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:13 pm

The GEFS are screaming coastal storms. Jan. 23rd-Feb. 3rd...something is coming. Maybe 2 storms

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:14 pm

I haven't barked this loudly all year...maybe besides the post Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Nothing is cutting in this pattern though

by **SoulSingMG** Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:31 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS are screaming coastal storms. Jan. 23rd-Feb. 3rd...something is coming. Maybe 2 storms

PRAISE THE LORRRRRDTTT!!!!

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:00 pm

It's all been eye candy no big storms unless teles are where they need to the pattern is the pattern of This winter

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:10 pm

Here's some images. Positive heights into the Arctic circle

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 Gfs-en10

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 Gfs-en11

by **amugs** Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:18 pm

Folks it coming - the patttern will be there and it will start with a clipper on Wednesday - UKIE and EURO, GEFS all showing this - GFS is having old issues in the OP - cant wait for a stupid upgrade

UKIE for clipper - 2"+ - get it to dig a bit more and we go 3"+

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 9AFCB0B0-5D84-4082-98A8-C95D6EB7BA90_zpshdohx5ms.gif

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 9AFCB0B0-5D84-4082-98A8-C95D6EB7BA90_zpshdohx5ms.gif

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 9AFCB0B0-5D84-4082-98A8-C95D6EB7BA90_zpshdohx5ms

by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:28 pm

I swear I hate you guys. This forum is like Crack Cocaine! I don't want to look. I don't want to believe. But I just can't stop. Frank and Mugsy are my dealers. Bring me some of that white powder.

by carvin1079 Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:41 pm

No thread on the clipper

by **sroc4** Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:42 pm

carvin1079 wrote:No thread on the clipper

New thread is coming.

by **Analog96** Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:49 pm

This new GFS is HORRIBLE.

It isn't going to have a clue about the clipper until tomorrow night at 00Z at the earliest.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:56 pm

That's not good at all the the new GFS was going to better

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