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Official Long Range Thread 6.0

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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:19 pm

Don't sleep on that clipper either for Wed.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Jan 16, 2015 10:27 pm

@sroc4 wrote:Don't sleep on that clipper either for Wed.
With the Sunday storm still currently forecast to remain on the strong side, it might very well hinder the development of our clipper. We need the Sunday storm to haul out of here, or our clipper to slow down so it can have room to amplify.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 16, 2015 11:03 pm

Nutley is right. Lack of spacing and the ULL might be trying to absorb some of the H5 energy. If the clipper can dig more it'll have room to deepen.

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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:57 am

Navgem for next weekend What a Face

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 O88c3d
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:55 am

Don't think 6+ chances are good at all up there syo.Less qpf N and W plus too warm for all snow.JMHO

Incredible snow amt in March 1993.Remember people saying out in Lake Wallenpaupack area in PA they had 36 inches.Those all snow areas got clobbered.I had 18 iches, 3 inches of sleet, when the changeover occured.Before that, it was a blizzard.If the storm had tracked a little bit east, Mahwah NJ would have had that 30 plus inches. Another very close obne.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sat Jan 17, 2015 2:37 am

That storm passed almost directly over NYC yet they got almost 11 inches of snow before the change. We received 23 inches but as Doc was saying the last 4 inches was sleet. I didn't have a snow blower than and I remember that top level of sleet was like shoveling coal it was so heavy. Places in central NY like Syracuse had 40 inches none of it lake effect. That was a terrible path for a storm to take for us yet we still got hammered.
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Post by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:40 am

more than 2 weeks after that storm on April 4th I was fishing for trout on the Esopus Creek in NW Ulster County north of Phoenecia and was walking around in over 2 feet of snow and 55 degree temps. Surreal.

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:48 am

Hey sroc4, nutleyblizzard and Frank. For what it's worth the NWS has been real accurate this season and they updated overnight and made 2 changes to their forecasts.

1. For Wednesday they have our area receiving about .30 QPF but mixing with rain on Wednesday(of course) and

2. They seem to have lost the storm threat in the day 6/7 range and even drastically cut down on QPF forecast for this time.

Not Good!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 8:55 am

The pattern is changing after the 21st like I said at the G2g, whether there's a storm on the 23rd, 27th, or even early February is anyone's guess. But I do think we'll get something. I truly do

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:39 am

12z GFS is exploding with potential

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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:42 am

Looks like next weekend precip is ots, HP over the Great Lakes and New England.... but still a long way to go

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:48 am

Right Janet we need that -Nao
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 17, 2015 11:53 am

Everything still zonal for the most part, a few hints of change, but overall ugh... very long range eye candy for Feb. 1-2 geek

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:07 pm

Frank what are u seeing on 12z gfs? Nothing on surface us it all h5 potentisl?
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:13 pm

The GEFS are screaming coastal storms. Jan. 23rd-Feb. 3rd...something is coming. Maybe 2 storms

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:14 pm

I haven't barked this loudly all year...maybe besides the post Christmas storm that ended up cutting. Nothing is cutting in this pattern though

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Post by SoulSingMG Sat Jan 17, 2015 12:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GEFS are screaming coastal storms. Jan. 23rd-Feb. 3rd...something is coming. Maybe 2 storms

PRAISE THE LORRRRRDTTT!!!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:00 pm

It's all been eye candy no big storms unless teles are where they need to the pattern is the pattern of This winter
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:10 pm

Here's some images. Positive heights into the Arctic circle

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 Gfs-en10

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 Gfs-en11

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 17, 2015 1:18 pm

Folks it coming - the patttern will be there and it will start with a clipper on Wednesday - UKIE and EURO, GEFS all showing this - GFS is having old issues in the OP - cant wait for a stupid upgrade

UKIE for clipper - 2"+ - get it to dig a bit more and we go 3"+

Official Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 9AFCB0B0-5D84-4082-98A8-C95D6EB7BA90_zpshdohx5ms.gifOfficial Long Range Thread 6.0 - Page 4 9AFCB0B0-5D84-4082-98A8-C95D6EB7BA90_zpshdohx5ms

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Post by Guest Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:28 pm

I swear I hate you guys. This forum is like Crack Cocaine! I don't want to look. I don't want to believe. But I just can't stop. Frank and Mugsy are my dealers. Bring me some of that white powder.

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Post by carvin1079 Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:41 pm

No thread on the clipper

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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 17, 2015 4:42 pm

@carvin1079 wrote:No thread on the clipper

New thread is coming.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65" WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20" WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25" WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"
WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
Dec 16th/17th 7.25"    
Jan 31st-Feb 3rd 15.5"    
Feb 7th 6"
Feb 10th-11th 2.75"
Feb 18th-19th 6.25"
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Post by Analog96 Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:49 pm

This new GFS is HORRIBLE.

It isn't going to have a clue about the clipper until tomorrow night at 00Z at the earliest.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Jan 17, 2015 6:56 pm

That's not good at all the the new GFS was going to better
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