Re: Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:21 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.
You cant competently throw the run out due to the fact the H5 could end up strung out and disorganized with late interaction, its just not the overall consensus and wouldn't be wise to use in a forecast right now....

Yeah. That. cheers

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:24 pm

Well GOOD EVENING, NAVy...
Update #4: Final Call Snow Map - Page 17 Post-711

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:26 pm

Quietace wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.
You cant competently throw the run out due to the fact the H5 could end up strung out and disorganized with late interaction, its just not the overall consensus and wouldn't be wise to use in a forecast right now....

Considering GFS is alone vs EUK/EURO/GGEM I feel ok as of now, probably wont look at the models again until 12z tomorrow.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:28 pm

GFS looks better for the Miller B followup storm next week.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:39 pm

It's the 18 friggin Z! lol Go have a nice dinner!

by **amugs** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:40 pm

Analog96 wrote:Meanwhile, the GFS is still a disorganized mess, and mostly OTS, for whatever it's worth.

Gfs sucks at southern stream storms and rules at northern stream saw this all last year.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:41 pm

amugs wrote:
Analog96 wrote:Meanwhile, the GFS is still a disorganized mess, and mostly OTS, for whatever it's worth.

Gfs sucks at southern stream storms and rules at northern stream saw this all last year.

Yeah and this year I'm not even sure if it's good at northern stream storms.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:44 pm

Dunnzoo wrote: It's the 18 friggin Z! lol Go have a nice dinner!

Thank you and I harp on this all the time the 18z SUCKS!

Also, we spend 40 million a year on our weather models and the 90 million is spent on the euro - good ole america investing in science.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:46 pm

Analog96 wrote:I mean, can someone explain this?

HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND SFC LOW PRES
WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING INSIDE
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AND DROPPING 30+ MB IN PRESSURE FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO
06Z SUNDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH

SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING.

RAIN/SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

They are in the hooka den in Denver making this prediction

by Guest Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:47 pm

Just talking to other weather obsessed weenies like myself so why does everyone tell me to relax when I post? I'm pretty relaxed, and ask good questions, and have a good sense of humor, and totally trust the METS on this site! I think everyone else should relax and folllow my lead.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:47 pm

amugs wrote:
Dunnzoo wrote: It's the 18 friggin Z! lol Go have a nice dinner!

Thank you and I harp on this all the time the 18z SUCKS!

Also, we spend 40 million a year on our weather models and the 90 million is spent on the euro - good ole america investing in science.

I believe I read somewhere that the 18Z's have the lowest verification scores of any run.

I think the order was 00, 12, 06, 18.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:49 pm

i enjoy the emotional roller coaster of model hugging its all part of the fun? deep down you's know its serious time a day out

Lee said now 60/40 chance of significant storm for Saturday snow wise

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:50 pm

RJB8525 wrote:i enjoy the emotional roller coaster of model hugging its all part of the fun? deep down you's know its serious time a day out

Lee said now 60/40 chance of significant storm for Saturday snow wise

I agree pretty much with those odds, who is Lee, BTW?

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:51 pm

Analog96 wrote:
RJB8525 wrote:i enjoy the emotional roller coaster of model hugging its all part of the fun? deep down you's know its serious time a day out

Lee said now 60/40 chance of significant storm for Saturday snow wise

I agree pretty much with those odds, who is Lee, BTW?

Ah, Lee Goldberg i forgot to add his name at the end

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:52 pm

Lee Goldberg channel 7 A lot of us here are transplants from the old Channel 7 chat board

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:54 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Just talking to other weather obsessed weenies like myself so why does everyone tell me to relax when I post? I'm pretty relaxed, and ask good questions, and have a good sense of humor, and totally trust the METS on this site! I think everyone else should relax and folllow my lead.

Because i love doing that to you hahaha....

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:55 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Lee Goldberg channel 7 A lot of us here are transplants from the old Channel 7 chat board

Oh ok, he's pretty good...

BTW, I'll be posting a lot more here now.

I don't want to derail this thread, so if anyone wants to know why, PM me.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:24 pm

Analog If U Know Something We Don't U Can Share imo.

by Guest Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:25 pm

Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Just talking to other weather obsessed weenies like myself so why does everyone tell me to relax when I post? I'm pretty relaxed, and ask good questions, and have a good sense of humor, and totally trust the METS on this site! I think everyone else should relax and folllow my lead.
Because i love doing that to you hahaha....

Make a snowball with that fresh inch you got and hit yourself in the face with it, while you get rain Saturday and I get a foot and a half. Very Happy

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:27 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Analog If U Know Something We Don't U Can Share imo.

Just that I left another board and voluntarily deleted my account.

They don't have any respect for the only degreed meteorologist who posted there, and thought it was cool for another poster who was only there to troll to call me name after name just because I disagreed that this is not a mainly rain event for Connecticut.

So when I retaliated I got suspended for 84 hours.

He gets away with it because he has golfed with the board owner, so I asked to have my account deleted.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:27 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Just talking to other weather obsessed weenies like myself so why does everyone tell me to relax when I post? I'm pretty relaxed, and ask good questions, and have a good sense of humor, and totally trust the METS on this site! I think everyone else should relax and folllow my lead.
Because i love doing that to you hahaha....

Make a snowball with that fresh inch you got and hit yourself in the face with it, while you get rain Saturday and I get a foot and a half.

LOL I think whatever the NJ Shore gets, CLI gets similar.

Although being on the North shore might help a little.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:27 pm

Like mugs says 18z stinks. 00z looking forward too and Janet yes having a good dinner at Applebee's . Half price apps and 6 dollar long island iced tea goblets . Don't anyone say it's a girly drink they mess u up big time woo lol.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:28 pm

I also might be bringing a few people over here.

by **Analog96** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Like mugs says 18z stinks. 00z looking forward too and Janet yes having a good dinner at Applebee's . Half price apps and 6 dollar long island iced tea goblets . Don't anyone say it's a girly drink they mess u up big time woo lol.

Going OT, but IMO Friday's is much better than Applebee's.

by **essexcountypete** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:42 pm

Dunnzoo wrote: It's the 18 friggin Z! lol Go have a nice dinner!

LOL! My wife asked from the other room what was so damn funny.
We're going to have a nice dinner now.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 21, 2015 6:44 pm

Giftcard. I love fridays.

by **RJB8525** Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Giftcard. I love fridays.

i'm a Chili's guy

by Sponsored content