Update #4: Final Call Snow Map

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:any of the pros here went to chime in on what was said by the National Weather Service that is a huge turn around I seriously hope they are wrong

I really have no idea what they were doing this afternoon to be honest.

I mean I can't see a model that has a mostly rain event all the way to 287, can anyone else?

And this sure as hell doesn't look like a freezing rain event.

There is no damming type high, and it isn't a big inversion scenario.

I could see it snow at 33 or 34 more than freezing rain in this setup.

Sleet could be possible at times with the warm pockets aloft, but freezing rain, no way.

100% correct.

rb924119 wrote:FWIW 18z GFS OP is WAY east lol

I know it's the 18Z but, that's not what I want to hear.

Meanwhile, the GFS is still a disorganized mess, and mostly OTS, for whatever it's worth.

I mean, can someone explain this?


HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND SFC LOW PRES
WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL PASS
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING INSIDE
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING AND DROPPING 30+ MB IN PRESSURE FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO
06Z SUNDAY.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT
PROFILES.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING.

RAIN/SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.

So Lee chimed in. he said:

A potential significant snow storm with rain/snow mix could hit Saturday early dawn thorought all day into the evening. he has his eyes on that now most places will see a coating tomorrow

GFS says "NO storm, kids."

OT: Tropicaltidbits.com being slow is getting really tiring.

It's a nice site and has easy to access products, but what's the point if they're always an hour late?

SoulSingMG wrote:GFS says "NO storm, kids."

If that happens, Administrators do what must be done.

If we have to snuff out the NAM too, so be it. Enough said.

Analog96 wrote:I mean, can someone explain this?

 
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND SFC LOW PRES  
WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG  
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL PASS  
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING INSIDE  
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFYING AND DROPPING 30+ MB IN PRESSURE FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO  
06Z SUNDAY.  
 
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z  
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850  
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH  
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW  
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS  
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR  
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT  
PROFILES.  
 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.  
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A  
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW  
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE  
SHOWING.  
 
RAIN/SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  

There using them verbatim as there model of choice for the CWA forecast ATM. Not a smart decision but they have been known for doing this before.....

Quietace wrote:

Analog96 wrote:I mean, can someone explain this?

 
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...  
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...AND SFC LOW PRES  
WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG  
THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL PASS  
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE PASSING INSIDE  
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK AND EAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING...RAPIDLY  
INTENSIFYING AND DROPPING 30+ MB IN PRESSURE FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO  
06Z SUNDAY.  
 
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...BUT THE 12Z NAM AND THE 12Z  
ECMWF HAVE INTRODUCED A SURGE IN WARM AIR ALOFT...TO +2C...AT 850  
MB. WITH A SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...WHICH  
SIGNALS POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT THAN A SNOW  
EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON. NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUPPORT THIS. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS  
OFFSHORE WITH THE LOW...AND DOES NOT HAVE THAT SURGE OF WARM AIR  
ALOFT...WITH ALL SNOW EVENT. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE GFS BUFKIT  
PROFILES.  
 
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENT ON SATURDAY.  
WILL INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN AND WILL TREND FORECAST TO MORE OF A  
MIXED PRECIP/FREEZING RAIN EVENT AND WILL BEGIN TO DOWNPLAY THE SNOW  
POTENTIAL. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM AIR AT 850 MB THAT THE MODELS ARE  
SHOWING.  
 
RAIN/SNOW CHANGES TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF.  

There using them verbatim as there model of choice for the CWA forecast ATM. Not a smart decision but they have been known for doing this before.....

I hope they don't go on a roll like they were on a few years ago (In a bad way).

They had been doing much better and then Sunday's debacle happened...

SoulSingMG wrote:GFS says "NO storm, kids."

This is what you get for

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:GFS says "NO storm, kids."

This is what you get for

Sad that the GFS is the best our tax dollars can produce.

Godzilla to Mix in 2 hours?? Doesn't make sense!

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:GFS says "NO storm, kids."

This is what you get for

LOL

syosnow94 wrote:Godzilla to Mix in 2 hours??  Doesn't make sense!

Relax you will be fine

wow did Gfs is a total and complete miss that stinks hopefully it's just the 18z and 00 Z will bring it back. Still yimr. I thought the nws was kinda taking things verbatim

syosnow94 wrote:Godzilla to Mix in 2 hours??  Doesn't make sense!

All depends who is writing the forecast.

jmanley32 wrote:wow did Gfs is a total and complete miss that stinks hopefully it's just the 18z and 00 Z will bring it back. Still yimr. I thought the nws was kinda taking things verbatim

I have a feeling this new GFS is going to make us wish we had the old one back.

Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:wow did Gfs is a total and complete miss that stinks hopefully it's just the 18z and 00 Z will bring it back. Still yimr. I thought the nws was kinda taking things verbatim

I have a feeling this new GFS is going to make us wish we had the old one back.

If you looked at the verification during its trials, even though it was at a lower resolution and had less computing power as it was still experimental, it was worst out of the 4 major globals and worst than the old GFS....

Quietace wrote:

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:wow did Gfs is a total and complete miss that stinks hopefully it's just the 18z and 00 Z will bring it back. Still yimr. I thought the nws was kinda taking things verbatim

I have a feeling this new GFS is going to make us wish we had the old one back.

If you looked at the verification during its trials, even though it was at a lower resolution and had less computing power as it was still experimental, it was worst out of the 4 major globals and worst than the old GFS....

Yes, I know.

I was one of the signees on a petition to NCEP to make it better before they run it as operational.

SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.

It's sad when the GFS gets schooled by the NAM.

Dunnzoo wrote:Step away from the models....everyone breathe! See you back here for the 00zs!

Very good advice at this point. Things were getting out of hand and crazy.

Now let's burn the NAM and the GFS!!!!!

SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.

You cant competently throw the run out due to the fact the H5 could end up strung out and disorganized with late interaction, its just not the overall consensus and wouldn't be wise to use in a forecast right now....

Analog96 wrote:

Quietace wrote:

Analog96 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:wow did Gfs is a total and complete miss that stinks hopefully it's just the 18z and 00 Z will bring it back. Still yimr. I thought the nws was kinda taking things verbatim

I have a feeling this new GFS is going to make us wish we had the old one back.

If you looked at the verification during its trials, even though it was at a lower resolution and had less computing power as it was still experimental, it was worst out of the 4 major globals and worst than the old GFS....

Yes, I know.

I was one of the signees on a petition to NCEP to make it better before they run it as operational.

Gotta love our country's commitment to being the leaders in weather modeling...oh wait....

Quietace wrote:

SoulSingMG wrote:Okay, kids. Here's the deal...

The EURO handles Miller A's the best and it has the support of the CMC and others. I say pay no mind to that GF-BS and let's hold tight until the 00z's.

You cant competently throw the run out due to the fact the H5 could end up strung out and disorganized with late interaction, its just not the overall consensus and wouldn't be wise to use in a forecast right now....

Yeah. That.

Well GOOD EVENING, NAVy...