Re: Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2

by **Vinnydula** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:36 pm

How far West is that band going to make it

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:36 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.

The 12z UKIE yesterday was a big hit

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:37 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.

Exactly, Tom. I was thinking that yesterday when the NWS made up my possible 20 inch forecast.GFS and other models did not agree.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:38 pm

Vinnydula wrote:How far West is that band going to make it

It seems to be progressing well. Slowly but surely, the wall of snow is trying to push deeper into NJ

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 Inxr1Kphla_h

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.

Yea yea yea how many times do i have to hear this, heard it with '09, '10, BDB, Nemo to name a few, why cant we have a storm that has arctic air to have all snow and tuck in right off the NJ coast and bomb like '96 or '03, man...

by **RJB8525** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:39 pm

Lee just said 8-12 in the city. if bands set up more, of course

by **lglickman1** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:40 pm

When u say nyc should get in on the good snow do u mean all of nyc or just eastern nyc, I.e. queens and brooklyn and not manhattan and the bronx?

by **devsman** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:40 pm

rb924119 wrote:Forgot to add this to my other post: GREAT JOB TO EVERYBODY ON THIS BOARD!!!! These storms are not easy, and it's rare to make everybody happy. No matter what the outcome, it's great to be able to analyze things like this where people (you all) are honest, offer advice/suggestions/insight to any level of met, and best of all, to be able to (99.9% of the time) express discontent or disagreement in a respectable way. This is what the science, and the field of meteorology, is all about!! Again; absolutely FANTASTIC job to everybody for making this as enjoyable as it is

and to add to this...and this is not banter...stop asking people (frank, sroc) to predict snow totals on your street. General obs. in your area are one thing but asking what a snow total is gonna be in a town that you live in is insane. And realize more than this, Frank predicted a big storm at the end of JAN. and a pattern change that would lead to big storms for a couple weeks following. You may be mad with outcomes for your address, but you are insane if you put any men down on this site. These men have yet to let me down.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:41 pm

lglickman1 wrote:When u say nyc should get in on the good snow do u mean all of nyc or just eastern nyc, I.e. queens and brooklyn and not manhattan and the bronx?

Mainly eastern zones

by nyrfan31 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:41 pm

Eastern HV looks to be in prime position atm! About to get clobbered! Moderate snow, 3.1" so far

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:41 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.
Yea yea yea how many times do i have to hear this, heard it with '09, '10, BDB, Nemo to name a few, why cant we have a storm that has arctic air to have all snow and tuck in right off the NJ coast and bomb like '96 or '03, man...

Those are very difficult to come by.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:43 pm

nyrfan31 wrote:Eastern HV looks to be in prime position atm! About to get clobbered! Moderate snow, 3.1" so far

Very heavy band about to move in there

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.
Yea yea yea how many times do i have to hear this, heard it with '09, '10, BDB, Nemo to name a few, why cant we have a storm that has arctic air to have all snow and tuck in right off the NJ coast and bomb like '96 or '03, man...

Those are very difficult to come by.

Yea I know but theoretically isnt this as in tonight? What statistical difference is it to be further west.

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:45 pm

What's going on with the h5

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:46 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.
Yea yea yea how many times do i have to hear this, heard it with '09, '10, BDB, Nemo to name a few, why cant we have a storm that has arctic air to have all snow and tuck in right off the NJ coast and bomb like '96 or '03, man...

Those are very difficult to come by.
Yea I know but theoretically isnt this as in tonight? What statistical difference is it to be further west.

Not really. We do not even have west-based blocking tonight. I'm sure those storms did. All our big storms do. There is a vortex in SE Canada acting as a block for this storm, but there's still a difference when you have higher heights into Greenland. Just changes the upper level pattern completely.

by pkmak Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:46 pm

Heavy snow and white out conditions now in Douglaston Queens/Nassau border line.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:46 pm

mancave25 wrote:What's going on with the h5

It should close off in 2-3 hours

by **Joe Snow** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:46 pm

So I am looking at my radar loop and the Storm looks like it just moved a tick WEST.

Anyone else see that?

Edit---- IT DID MOVE WEST............More like North West

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:47 pm

Latest HRRR tomorrow morning, looks nice! Hope it's true

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 B8VKTngIcAAWWRh

This is 10am

by mancave25 Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:47 pm

Why so much dry air on the west side

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:48 pm

For syosnow

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 B8VJbvZIYAAEs5T

by **2004blackwrx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:48 pm

docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:I didnt think it was wise to trust the EURO when it was alone and with the NAM, had the CMC and UKIE consistantly been onboard itd be a different story.

Exactly, Tom. I was thinking that yesterday when the NWS made up my possible 20 inch forecast.GFS and other models did not agree.

That scares me but when all the pros are on board I believe.
Hopefully we are the wrong ones for not trusting them.

by **SoulSingMG** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:48 pm

Big time band about to move into the city...

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 Img_6610

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:49 pm

HRRR 11am

Blizzard January 26-27 observation thread part 2 - Page 4 Hrrr_ref_nyc_14

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:49 pm

mancave25 wrote:Why so much dry air on the west side

Because of the subsidence I talked about. But it's moving out.

by **SNOW MAN** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:51 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
Joe Snow wrote:

Just amazed that western NJ is getting no snow.
Im smack dab in the heart of central NJ, this storm is pathetic

Same here, however I do find it funny that yesterdays Euro and todays NAM had me in a jackpot of 40 inches of snow, I have 1.4 inches so far.

I've never thought much of the NAM but thought I could trust the Euro.

CP, Iv'e never seen anything like it. If anything, I am glad this happened. Goes to show no matter how great the EURO was you can not solely rely on it or its ensembles. But, I am happy for NYC and our LI guys. NJ (besides immediate coast) and HV will get the next one.
Yea yea yea how many times do i have to hear this, heard it with '09, '10, BDB, Nemo to name a few, why cant we have a storm that has arctic air to have all snow and tuck in right off the NJ coast and bomb like '96 or '03, man...

Could not agree with you more Nj. Well at least my company is closed tomorrow. Woooo Hoooo !!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 26, 2015 11:51 pm

Just an FYI, maybe we should not praise the GFS. It only showed NYC tonight getting 2-3 more inches of snow. NYC is about to get that in 1 hour with the band about to move in.

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