Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

A shift south slightly would be ok for a lot of us however Philly and my area and NYC and LI ride a fine line if it shifts north which is still a possibility.

Interesting CP, at the very end of his noon update Bernie hinted that the increase in intensification might push it all a bit further north and may end up mixing from NY City south. In the 1:30 update he drew his line at Phily and left it at that.

Here's my early call:
North of I-78: All snow with accumulations of 8-12” (some locally heavier spots)
From I-195 to I-78: Mostly snow, maybe some sleet mixing in at times in the middle of the storm with accumulations of 6-10”
From the AC Expressway to I-195: Snow slowly changing to sleet, freezing rain and then briefly rain, before ending as a period of snow with accumulations of 4”-6”.
South of the AC Expressway: Snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain then changing to all rain more quickly. Maybe ending as a bit of snow. Accumulations 2”-4” before the change to rain.
More gut feeling based on looking at the models and my past experience with these. So feel free to shoot me down. I'm sure I'll be wrong anyway.

AccuWeathes first snow map
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_01302029_hd25-3.jpg

NAM is still out of its range and we know how bad it did but its had its storms in the past so FWIW 18z run about 10-15 mi tick south.

billg315 wrote:Here's my early call:
North of I-78: All snow with accumulations of 8-12” (some locally heavier spots)
From I-195 to I-78: Mostly snow, maybe some sleet mixing in at times in the middle of the storm with accumulations of 6-10”
From the AC Expressway to I-195: Snow slowly changing to sleet, freezing rain and then briefly rain, before ending as a period of snow with accumulations of 4”-6”.
South of the AC Expressway: Snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain then changing to all rain more quickly. Maybe ending as a bit of snow. Accumulations 2”-4” before the change to rain.
More gut feeling based on looking at the models and my past experience with these. So feel free to shoot me down. I'm sure I'll be wrong anyway.

Id agree with this call ATM, will probably make my first call tomorrow.

NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM is still out of its range and we know how bad it did but its had its storms in the past so FWIW 18z run about 10-15 mi tick south.

Tom here is the first public warning I am imposing - NO NAM TALK as per Frank -I would delete this post if I were you if not he is going to ban those who discuss NAM - no kidding!

And let's not worry about being in the jackpot area - these west to east storm are 100,000x easier to forecast than the coastals and phasers that is for sure - we know that there is there a chance for south or northward movement of course but lets just take it as it comes.

Speaking of watches the boys out in Central and western PA have their watches up already - not screwing around with this storm.

That's why I'm don't have my hopes up but earlier map today showed me in the bullseye So right now who knows

Mugs Hope they get here soon WSW Yes!!

NAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAMNAM.

NOW THAT I GOT THAT OUT OF THE WAY I'm going to try and predict Frank's first call snow map. On a line due east from Allentown, thru Princeton right to the coast.... 4 to 8 south of it all the way down to a line extending from Just north of Baltimore to just north of Atlantic City. North of the Allentown thru Princeton to the coast line 8 to 12 inches including all of LI, southern Ct, NYC and immediate northern suburbs and NNJ. North of there due to 20:1+ raios 12-16 inches from Binghamton to Boston on a line. CP and Doc jackpot.

Can someone explain why the NWS has the Bronx in for a mix of precipitation on Monday with a high of only 24 degrees and why they only have NYC in for 6-8 inches based on all the models from today that suggested more?

lglickman1 wrote:Can someone explain why the NWS has the Bronx in for a mix of precipitation on Monday with a high of only 24 degrees and why they only have NYC in for 6-8 inches based on all the models from today that suggested more?

They're not going to get bullish until 24-36 hours before the storm. Especially after the debacle with the last one

Lee was saying maximum potential of 6-12 I've seen models go nuts but we learned to stay back so is that a safe bet for him?

did GFS go more north?

As Rb was saying this morning and his worry about further north solutions, that is it allows 925mb and 850mb lows to travel further north. Thus forcing the Warm nose in the mid layers to come further north and introduce mixing issues to more. Here the GFS at 66 and 72 hours. 850 lows travels right over NYC. Zooming into NE you can see at hour 66 the warmest frame how 850s torch alost up to NYC....Though surface temps stay steady...



This is contrary to a track similar to the Euro where both lows stay further south and literally mix up to 5 miles south of my backyard...


There is also some serious thermal packing going on on most models, so thats also something to watch

RJB8525 wrote:Lee was saying maximum potential of 6-12 I've seen models go nuts but we learned to stay back so is that a safe bet for him?

I really don't understand him sometimes. I do understand in light of what just happened this week that pro mets have to be somewhat cautious with future forecasts but this guy is extremely conservative all the time and then ups totals drastically 12-24 hours before events. He said yesterday that the storm was going south when all models trended north and then today he said MAX potential is 6-12 when QPF's have increased and it is a real possibility at this time that max potential could be 12-18 for this storm from looking at all guidance and trends. It may well be that that final accumulations are indeed 6-12 but a real possibility exists at this time of over a foot in many places.

18z GFS went north of 12z but unless foreign models follow suit I wont be worried. One run doesnt make a trend.

We need Frank to make sense of this.  The NWS has me here on LI getting 1.30" QPF.  They have me forecasted for only 4 to 8" of snow with 2 to 4" Sunday night and on Monday a high of 24 and falling temps. but a mix.  Doesn't add up.  With falling temperatures starting out in the mid 20's, the ratios should be MINIMUM 15:1.!  I'm not saying I'm getting 18 inches of snow, but the temps, QPF and snow probabilities of 6" or more only at 50%something doesn't add up       !!

syosnow94 wrote:We need Frank to make sense of this.  The NWS has me here on LI getting 1.30" QPF.  They have me forecasted for only 4 to 8" of snow with 2 to 4" Sunday night and on Monday a high of 24 and falling temps. but a mix.  Doesn't add up.  With falling temperatures starting out in the mid 20's, the ratios should be MINIMUM 15:1.!  I'm not saying I'm getting 18 inches of snow, but the temps, QPF and snow probabilities of 6" or more only at 50%something doesn't add up       !!

Because if it takes the 18z GFS/NAM track it wont be that cold. 32

Tonight's runs are important to see if it keeps trending north or stays the same So as of now what are the models showing . The Euro was a good hit wasn't it and GFS not So great?

Lee had 6-12 area wide but showed that north trend and that mix coming right up to staten island around 3am and said depending on track NYC can be under 6 around 4"

I watched Lee and he mentioned the mixing city south and east and 6 to 12, more likely 6-10, in his opinion, N and W.We'll see how the next 24 hours go.

skinsfan1177 wrote:Tonight's runs are important to see if it keeps trending north or stays the same So as of now what are the models showing . The Euro was a good hit wasn't it and GFS not So great?

GFS was fine at 12z but trended north at 18z, im not worried yet. 0zs are important.

the way things are now we know this will change somewhere north of 287 will see more then 10 with ratios!

If there is any weakness in the 50/50 block to the north, this storm is going to have space to track further north. The stronger the block, the further south this storm stays. Now that this clipper is out of here, tonight's 00z runs should really start painting a picture on how far north this storm could get. From the blog, I highlighted 3 possible tracks. Models are leaning on the blue track, some even a little further north than it. That would bring mixing issues as far north as Staten Island.

That said, I usually recall storm like this shifting south last minute. Key is not to over analyze this. We know what the upper air pattern looks like. Models should stay between the blue and green. We'll see tonight.