Re: Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust?

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:27 pm

the way things are now we know this will change somewhere north of 287 will see more then 10 with ratios!

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:38 pm

If there is any weakness in the 50/50 block to the north, this storm is going to have space to track further north. The stronger the block, the further south this storm stays. Now that this clipper is out of here, tonight's 00z runs should really start painting a picture on how far north this storm could get. From the blog, I highlighted 3 possible tracks. Models are leaning on the blue track, some even a little further north than it. That would bring mixing issues as far north as Staten Island.

That said, I usually recall storm like this shifting south last minute. Key is not to over analyze this. We know what the upper air pattern looks like. Models should stay between the blue and green. We'll see tonight.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:46 pm

Heres what i would say for NJ. If you're north of I-80 youre relatively safe from mixing at least as it looks now. 195-78 is the battleground where a slight shift north could put you on the edge and dramatically cut totals with mixing. Around and especially much further south of 195 like by the Ac expy, some of you are already on that edge and would benefit from a shift south or an absolute hold in tonights runs. Philly is in trouble atm.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:50 pm

Former employers 1st call snow map

Update #1: Can NJ Make Up For Blizzard Bust? - Page 11 10952406_10155148869505344_6395578986516186192_n

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 7:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Former employers 1st call snow map

t

tight gradient to south which is why i dont want to make a call until after tomorrow 12z, 25 miles north or south can make a huge difference

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:02 pm

My question is the 50/50 block or is it the PV that suppress the storm

by **billg315** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Former employers 1st call snow map

This seems pretty solid to me. Similar to what my first call was earlier. I just really think there are going to be mixing issues here all the way up to Trenton and maybe a little further north. I think the northern 1/3 of the state is pretty safe, and the southern 1/3 is in trouble (assuming you're someone who wants a lot of snow) and from about Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth up through Hunterdon/Somerset/Union is in a real battle zone.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:13 pm

But if I remember a strong polar vortex pushes storms farther south

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:21 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:But if I remember a strong polar vortex pushes storms farther south

Skins there's no set rule there. Plenty of storms survive a cold high to our north, that's how we get some of our best storms. Of course if they're to strong and plunge to far south then they cause problems in suppressing storms too far south. The perfect example of that is the period rom February 17 through the end of March last year.

There are many examples of the frigid setup,with the polar vortex to the north with great storms, two of the all-time greatest storms had a frigid polar vortex to our north. The blizzard of 1888 was one, the blizzard of January 1996 was another. Those are two of the biggest blizzards this area has ever seen. The blizzard of 1888 there was 40 to 60 inches of snow from a couple miles north of New York City all the way up to Albany. The January blizzard 1996 saw 20 to 36 inches area wide with temperatures that never got out of the teens during the storm, and remained in the single digits in parts of the Hudson Valley. And of course last year December 14, 2013 the area saw 5 to 10 inches of snow all of which fell with the temperature below 10°. There's no hard and fast rule, someone much more knowledgeable than me on this forum could explain the technical reasons why sometimes they suppress and sometimes they don't.

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:48 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:But if I remember a strong polar vortex pushes storms farther south

Skins there's no set rule there. Plenty of storms survive a cold high to our north, that's how we get some of our best storms. Of course if they're to strong and plunge to far south then they cause problems in suppressing storms too far south. The perfect example of that is the period rom February 17 through the end of March last year.

There are many examples of the frigid setup,with the polar vortex to the north with great storms, two of the all-time greatest storms had a frigid polar vortex to our north. The blizzard of 1888 was one, the blizzard of January 1996 was another. Those are two of the biggest blizzards this area has ever seen. The blizzard of 1888 there was 40 to 60 inches of snow from a couple miles north of New York City all the way up to Albany. The January blizzard 1996 saw 20 to 36 inches area wide with temperatures that never got out of the teens during the storm, and remained in the single digits in parts of the Hudson Valley. And of course last year December 14, 2013 the area saw 5 to 10 inches of snow all of which fell with the temperature below 10°. There's no hard and fast rule, someone much more knowledgeable than me on this forum could explain the technical reasons why sometimes they suppress and sometimes they don't.

It may have to do with if it's elongated east to west or less elongated . I think more elongated more suppression but then again it's a guess lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:55 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:But if I remember a strong polar vortex pushes storms farther south

Skins there's no set rule there. Plenty of storms survive a cold high to our north, that's how we get some of our best storms. Of course if they're to strong and plunge to far south then they cause problems in suppressing storms too far south. The perfect example of that is the period rom February 17 through the end of March last year.

There are many examples of the frigid setup,with the polar vortex to the north with great storms, two of the all-time greatest storms had a frigid polar vortex to our north. The blizzard of 1888 was one, the blizzard of January 1996 was another. Those are two of the biggest blizzards this area has ever seen. The blizzard of 1888 there was 40 to 60 inches of snow from a couple miles north of New York City all the way up to Albany. The January blizzard 1996 saw 20 to 36 inches area wide with temperatures that never got out of the teens during the storm, and remained in the single digits in parts of the Hudson Valley. And of course last year December 14, 2013 the area saw 5 to 10 inches of snow all of which fell with the temperature below 10°. There's no hard and fast rule, someone much more knowledgeable than me on this forum could explain the technical reasons why sometimes they suppress and sometimes they don't.

It may have to do with if it's elongated east to west or less elongated . I think more elongated more suppression but then again it's a guess lol

Sounds good to me, but what the hell do I know. I only do stats.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:42 pm

Uhg, have a bad feeling about 00z runs tonight with the storm coming too far north. All these early snow maps are going to screw us over, except those north of NYC

by **pdubz** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:46 pm

Hopefully the 50/50 holds and if not is there a ice threat with this?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:48 pm

pdubz wrote:Hopefully the 50/50 holds and if not is there a ice threat with this?

Big time. If this storm cuts, someone will see major ice with backend snow. Then temps crash Monday night and it could get REALLY bad.

Just stay south dammit. Ain't nobody got time for dat

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:48 pm

Blah if Euro caves for the city oh well

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:51 pm

NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

by **oldtimer** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:51 pm

After all euphoria this afternoon are we back to this? Can it go back south Frank

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:53 pm

Frank:

There is a poorly programmed unnamed model that finished its 0Z run within the last half hour. Did you see that run and if so is there anything there that gave you concern?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Frank:

There is a poorly programmed unnamed model that finished its 0Z run within the last half hour. Did you see that run and if so is there anything there that gave you concern?

UKIE had a similar track at 12z, getting worried this is a trend now.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 9:59 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? DON'T LOOK AT THIS PUTID MODEL. LAST NIGHT IT DID NOT EVEN SHOW THE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY FOR THE AREA. 0 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE WE ALL GOT 1-3. THEN 8 HOURS BEFORE THE BLIZZARD SHOW 24-30 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC. THIS MODEL NEEDS TO BE DECOMMISSIONED OR ELSE MORE PEOPLE WILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUMBER BY THE DAY

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:00 pm

LOL

by **lglickman1** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:00 pm

Seems like it's one of those winters where nothing goes the right way. But I guess we'll see.

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:03 pm

I still think from 287 north there will mostly snow some mixing maybe.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:NAM goes thru CNJ everyone goes to rain after a couple inches of snow, would stay the course of a winter of disappointment after disappointment.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME?? DON'T LOOK AT THIS PUTID MODEL. LAST NIGHT IT DID NOT EVEN SHOW THE SNOW SQUALLS TODAY FOR THE AREA. 0 INCHES OF SNOW WHILE WE ALL GOT 1-3. THEN 8 HOURS BEFORE THE BLIZZARD SHOW 24-30 INCHES OF SNOW FOR NYC. THIS MODEL NEEDS TO BE DECOMMISSIONED OR ELSE MORE PEOPLE WILL CONTINUING TO GROW DUMBER BY THE DAY

Im not taking it verbatim at all, just using it for its trends. It has had its moments in the past. Like I said, more concerned by having moving N past 3 runs and looking similar to Ukie.

by **RJB8525** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:09 pm

This isn't looking so hot for NYC..

by **jimv45** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:13 pm

Just what a crazy winter just yesterday it was supposed to sock the city on south and miss us northern areas now it might rain there and the heavy snow is going north just crazy but things could change again.

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:14 pm

RJB8525 wrote:This isn't looking so hot for NYC..

Stop. The 00z models didn't even come out yet.

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