Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Rb done in what sense ice or rain? If it's not snow let it b other than ice frz at thst intensity is bad news.

Snow-->ice-->rain.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:48 pm

Here comes the EURO (starts reciting the Rosary beads....)

by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:53 pm

Just checked back in. If this storm winds up being a slop/rain storm for NYC then what is the point of being on here and tracking and forecasting. I know it's just a guess but we are no better off than 20 years ago. From total confidence yesterday within 48 hours of the event to this completely busting/blowing up...... It's crazy/embarrassing actually. If the EURO trends north I'm done looking at this storm.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:55 pm

(in a whisper) so far so steady through 30......knock on wood.

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:55 pm

Euro is already stronger and a bit NW than 0z

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:59 pm

EURO looks about the same through 42

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:59 pm

I can't track this on mobile when both you Mets are saying 2 different things

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 12:59 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro is already stronger and a bit NW than 0z

You're not making any friends on here today Alex. Very Happy

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:00 pm

Here Frank:

12z today:
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0042.png

00z today:
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/ECM_00_opUS_P850TS_0054.png

only real difference is that it is 4 hPa stronger.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:01 pm

Euro is by far the coldest. Just looked. Slightly warmer for BYC but its still the model bringing the most snow for many people. Not saying it's right though.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:02 pm

NYC*

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:02 pm

NYC-battleground
South-Snow to rain
North-Big-time snow

by Guest Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:Here Frank:

12z today:
http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/ECM_12_opUS_P850TS_0042.png

00z today:
http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/00/ECM_00_opUS_P850TS_0054.png

only real difference is that it is 4 hPa stronger.

Looking at that the LP center moves due East across Ohio/Kentucky border. Looks well south of GFS no?????

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:03 pm

About 40mi North on this run. But colder than GFS for battleground areas.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:04 pm

Its obvious to me at this point SNJ is out of the game. Final snow map will come either late tonight or tomorrow morning. A safe call for the city is 4-8 inches of snow with some sleet

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:04 pm

So we have

SREFS: torch for everybody
GFS: warm for about everybody
UKMET: torch for everybody
GEM: Big snows NYC and north
EURO: Big snows NYC and north.
N_M: Big snows NYC and north.

Dear Lord

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:05 pm

12z EURO snow map based on 10:1

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0024/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0060.png

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:09 pm

How far of nyc before u get into good snows al are we still on play here or very close to what city sees?

by tigernumba1 Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:09 pm

so todays model runs didnt give us anything concrete. The 00z runs tn will be important

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:09 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z EURO snow map based on 10:1

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0024/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0060.png

I know ratios aren't taken into consideration on that map RB. But what about sleet and ice? If not those totals could be over done, for many areas, and under done for others of course that don't change over and have much higher ratios. It's really impossible to know what to think about this set up right now.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:09 pm

Wow rb 8 to 12 just noryh.of city I'll take it that's been concensus in forecasts. We shall see.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:How far of nyc before u get into good snows al are we still on play here or very close to what city sees?

Safely; probably 30-40 miles if I had to guess atm.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:11 pm

I concur cp am gonna go do some stuff this is just messing with me too much.

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:11 pm

Good hit for everyone here. Euro gives me .25" of liquid which is 8-10". 10-15" for NYC this run. Only mixes with sleet for a bit.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:11 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z EURO snow map based on 10:1

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/OP/12/snosums/0024/ECM_12_opUS_SF_0060.png

I know ratios aren't taken into consideration on that map RB. But what about sleet and ice? If not those totals could be over done, for many areas, and under done for others of course that don't change over and have much higher ratios. It's really impossible to know what to think about this set up right now.

Don't know. I'm waiting for the better maps of Tropical Tidbits to try and see lol

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I concur cp am gonna go do some stuff this is just messing with me too much.

I'm doing the same, now it's just giving me a headache with all the possibilities.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:22 pm

Everyone should enjoy their Saturday. Expect moderate snow accumulations in NNJ/NYC, at least 4-6 inches. Potential is there for more but gotta see how this plays out.

by Sponsored content