Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:13 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I concur cp am gonna go do some stuff this is just messing with me too much.

I'm doing the same, now it's just giving me a headache with all the possibilities.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:22 pm

Everyone should enjoy their Saturday. Expect moderate snow accumulations in NNJ/NYC, at least 4-6 inches. Potential is there for more but gotta see how this plays out.

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:So we have

SREFS: torch for everybody
GFS: warm for about everybody
UKMET: torch for everybody
GEM: Big snows NYC and north
EURO: Big snows NYC and north.
N_M: Big snows NYC and north.

Dear Lord

Dammit, we should just paste these results on Wheel and get some guy like Pat Sajak to moderate and we can spin and play "Weather Wheel of Fortune." Why can't these models corroborate?

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:25 pm

Woke up, saw the models, punched my computer, and yeah, throwing in the towel...

by **amugs** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:28 pm

Okay giluyd and gals we have one hell of a forecast here and the r/s in and looks to be nyc. euro came in just about the same sorry snj you are done out of the running unless something drastic happens. Onto 0z runs and shirt range model take over from there rgem for one is a model that has done well this winter so I will be playing close attention to it runs tom. Not going to look at anything else and have ci fidence the rain snow line sets up at nyc or just south of there.still like 8-14 " for nnj and lhv at this time. Time of course will tell but I have a feeling gfs is not digesting the mid level layer correctly.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:29 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:So we have

SREFS: torch for everybody
GFS: warm for about everybody
UKMET: torch for everybody
GEM: Big snows NYC and north
EURO: Big snows NYC and north.
N_M: Big snows NYC and north.

Dear Lord

Dammit, we should just paste these results on Wheel and get some guy like Pat Sajak to moderate and we can spin and play "Weather Wheel of Fortune." Why can't these models corroborate?

We can arrange this

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:32 pm

Are u are Alex that much for nyc area?

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:33 pm

I'll be happy to happily moderate the show,LOL!

Frankie P and the Mars Corporation are proud to present..."Weather Wheel of Fortune.." We can get Janet some fancy dresses like Vanna White....

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:33 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:So we have

SREFS: torch for everybody
GFS: warm for about everybody
UKMET: torch for everybody
GEM: Big snows NYC and north
EURO: Big snows NYC and north.
N_M: Big snows NYC and north.

Dear Lord

Dammit, we should just paste these results on Wheel and get some guy like Pat Sajak to moderate and we can spin and play "Weather Wheel of Fortune." Why can't these models corroborate?

Ohh mannnnn did this make me laugh ahaha

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:34 pm

This is simply impressive. The GFS could actually be right

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 Wv-animated

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:34 pm

This is about the best look I have right now at the EURO 850s. NYC is walking a thin line with this one; a VERY thin line.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015013112/ecmwf_T850_us_3.png

by WOLVES1 Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:37 pm

Gfs is king.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:38 pm

Yeah it could. What's tipping my hand in favoring it right now is that other short range guidance, such as the SREFs are in its camp, as is the UK. The UK is typically a very reliable model, and the SREFs are coming into their window. Not looking so swift, I'm afraid; even for us well north and west of NYC.

by WOLVES1 Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:38 pm

Only if it shows less snow if it shows more snow it will be wrong.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:39 pm

I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:39 pm

Expecting a Feb 5, 2014 redux now with this track, once again EURO caved to other guidance in this case the NAM... The NAM....

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

Can you post the map, Jman? Thanks!!

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:40 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

No, youre seeing zr/sleet as snow.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:41 pm

Rb when I get home I can post closeup of 8 50s from what model?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:45 pm

Hour 48 is the heaviest precip

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 ECMWF_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f48

Heres 850's at that time

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 Ecmwf_t850_nyc_9

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:45 pm

Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:46 pm

so for those of us in eastern Monmouth are you considering us to be in SNJ?
for this storm? or are we closer to the totals for nyc?? tx

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:46 pm

rb924119 wrote:Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

NVM Frank got it. Thanks Frank!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:47 pm

Notice how they surge warmer after 48

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 Ecmwf_t850_nyc_10

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

In the middle. Probably not much snow at this point but you'll see some

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:49 pm

Air temps are warm south Shore of LI and right in boarder for nyc

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 Ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_9

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

Can you post the map, Jman? Thanks!!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 9 Evhqay12

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