Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:53 pm

So I just checked the NAM on e wall, for me it has snow directly to rain then to the ZR back to a little snow on the backend maybe an inch as all levels
crashes.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Rb- yes

Those pressure falls are probably being dominated by WAA at the surface. Think of the concept of thickness. Just my opinion.

Probably. Meaning the storm is already deepening?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:59 pm

Hires NAM also trended colder. Again, I don't believe this model but I'm just hoping it's the start of a tend on the 00z suites

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 10945890_786683591409841_5320937061841213354_o

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 10945890_786683591409841_5320937061841213354_o

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:02 pm

Interprets all frozen as snow also so cut about. 2" QPF from that in most areas around NYC and CNJ and NNJ where there is ZR signal.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:02 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It's on weatherbell and pretty accurate inside 24 hours

Oh lol then I can't use it :p

It could be few different things, or a combination thereof. Low-level latent heat release could be a reason, WAA, stronger cyclone. I honestly can't answer that off the top of my head. That would require some analysis lmao

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:03 pm

Wow, temps Monday night will be frigid. Flash freeze likely

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 2mtempgrid0060

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:04 pm

I don't care if the forecast is for rain, slop, snow or water buffalo; this is some kind of awesome to look at right now:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/north-central-region/weather-radar
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-central-region/weather-radar

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Wow, temps Monday night will be frigid. Flash freeze likely

Definately, we can skate on our backyards after this mess.

by **Dtone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:05 pm

devsman wrote:the city in manhattan? I agree. But the boroughs? I work in northern queens by the throgs neck bridge. Subways keep manhattan streets warmer. outer boroughs, not so much.

I agree...i do reconize the difficulty is ice accretion within NYC but ive seen it happen..not a extreme event tho. Its hard in Manhattan and major roadways in any boro but on quiet residential streets signifant ice can occur. The level of activity in Manhattan makes it difficult for ice unless its very cold..its usually marginal when it does happen. The ice event a few weeks ago was at the wee hrs of sun morn when it was quiet on the streets which let ice form largly undisturbed.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:08 pm

The H7 frontogenesis between 3-3-6am Monday is going to produce snow rates around 2 inches per hour. That's why I feel a moderate accumulation is still on the table even though we could change to sleet or rain.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 850frnt0033

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 850frnt0033

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:13 pm

Here's the NAM clown map lol

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

by **jimv45** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:14 pm

Having a super bowl party trust you guys but I keep hearing start time after 10 and the heavy snow after midnight what's the time it gets going in Dutchess

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:16 pm

rgem is slightly north or 12z good front end snow very little fzr goes over to several hours of rain and exits quickly like nam

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:16 pm

Nj 100% correct wxbell does not take into account that large amount of frz on the map I posted. Is why I like the separation maps

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The H7 frontogenesis between 3-3-6am Monday is going to produce snow rates around 2 inches per hour. That's why I feel a moderate accumulation is still on the table even though we could change to sleet or rain.

Pretty strong over NJ

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:17 pm

Rb nap didn't post just legend

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:17 pm

jimv45 wrote:Having a super bowl party trust you guys but I keep hearing start time after 10 and the heavy snow after midnight what's the time it gets going in Dutchess

Sounds about right. Any snow that gals before 10pm should be light

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:17 pm

Falls*

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:18 pm

Nws did not waver on their 950 update on anything.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:19 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Rb nap didn't post just legend

oops lmao try this:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:19 pm

Can I have a understanding in simple terms on why this didn't happen for US is it just that the storm is to strong for confluence to our north

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:20 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can I have a understanding in simple terms on why this didn't happen for US is it just that the storm is to strong for confluence to our north

The storm is too strong for the cold air to remain locked in across our region. It's bringing too much warm air with it.

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Can I have a understanding in simple terms on why this didn't happen for US is it just that the storm is to strong for confluence to our north

The storm is too strong for the cold air to remain locked in across our region. It's bringing too much warm air with it.
That's what I thought rb thanks

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:23 pm

rgem not as juicy on front end snow but not bad this is at 7am Monday. after this is mostly rain for metro ny. looks a lot like nam and exits quickly
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 Rgem_asnow_us_12

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 18 Rgem_asnow_us_12

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:23 pm

@Skins- no worries!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:24 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Can I have a understanding in simple terms on why this didn't happen for US is it just that the storm is to strong for confluence to our north

Anytime a storm cuts to our west, it draws up mild air from the south due to the southerly winds. In this case, the storm is going to cut in PA but will try to transfer energy near the coast because there is a substantial block to our north. Once the storm feels it's influence, it will begin to transfer. How far north the primary low gets will depend on how warm temps rise on Monday.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:25 pm

Skins- just a tip but when you reply to someone make sure you're typing below the text because your replies get blended into the post.

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