Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:49 pm

Air temps are warm south Shore of LI and right in boarder for nyc

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 Ecmwf_t2max_12_nyc_9

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

Can you post the map, Jman? Thanks!!

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 Evhqay12

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:50 pm

WOLVES1 wrote:Only if it shows less snow if it shows more snow it will be wrong.

Wolves you are a hundred percent right. it's the one thing we can take to the bank from today's model solutions.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

In the middle. Probably not much snow at this point but you'll see some

You mean this for me, Frank?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:51 pm

Jesus GFS is crazy warm

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 GfsNE_850_temp_051

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:52 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

In the middle. Probably not much snow at this point but you'll see some

You mean this for me, Frank?

Sorry that was meant for the person asking about Monmouth County

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:53 pm

not saying any one model is right but the way this winter is going the one model that shows the least amount of snow is probably going to be right

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:53 pm

The gfs tracks the 850mb low in west NY. The euro has it in southern PA

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:54 pm

Euro/GFS blend would be nice for all of us, which is what i think the NWS will lean towards because of their bias to the euro last storm.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:55 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro/GFS blend would be nice for all of us, which is what i think the NWS will lean towards because of their bias to the euro last storm.

Not really...

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:56 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus GFS is crazy warm

It's also identical to the UK and SREFS, which is quite worrisome.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:56 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

Can you post the map, Jman? Thanks!!

Bump

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:58 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Just the EURO. And you might as well include the snow, too lol doesn't hurt to dream

In the middle. Probably not much snow at this point but you'll see some

You mean this for me, Frank?

Sorry that was meant for the person asking about Monmouth County

tx ...for answering I know you guys are busy tracking...just wanted to get an idea..I guess we better get started on the 12 page math packet and the essay my son's teacher assigned for weekend homework...really...4th grade is no joke now a days!! Evil or Very Mad

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 1:58 pm

At least Boston gets their Godzilla

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:00 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I looked at euro closer seems nyc area is jackpot at 10 to 1. 10 plus. I guess any changeover brief cuz qpf is 1.0

Can you post the map, Jman? Thanks!!
Bump

Pretty sad that one of the colder solutions still shifts the axis of best snow into NY state almost entirely. I think we may, unfortunately and yet again, wave good bye to another storm.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:03 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:At least Boston gets their Godzilla

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:07 pm

It's strange to see the GFS more amplified with the upper level pattern than the euro. GFS does not usually have this bias, usually keeps things progressive or weaker, so to me this is a red flag the euro might be too cold. NYC was not the battleground a couple of days ago and now suddenly they are. Goes to show how the trends have gone. It looks like the trend may have stopped and NYC will be your r/s line. It's a nowcast situation at this point. At least 4 inches of snow can be expected with a ceiling of 10 inches possible depending on the cold air.

Below you see the difference with the H5 trough on both the gfs/euro. GFS notably sharper and stronger.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 Post-40-0-36133300-1422731252.png.pagespeed.ce.Osx8TUntwL

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 Post-40-0-36133300-1422731252.png.pagespeed.ce.Osx8TUntwL

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 10 Post-40-0-58797900-1422731259.png.pagespeed.ce.FL0aVzmITp

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:09 pm

At least this will be a fun storm to nowcast. We get to follow the r/s line all day

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:11 pm

One thing I have noticed is that the GFS does tend to overdo cold (troughs) in the longer ranges, but I don't know how applicable that is here, and if it still does with the new upgrades. Like you said, just gotta wait and see, and be tormented by the models.

by elkiehound Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:18 pm

How do you folks see the rain snow line extending to West ?

by **docstox12** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:18 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Jesus GFS is crazy warm

It's also identical to the UK and SREFS, which is quite worrisome.

NWS is really going to have to start backpedaling on snow amounts up here.There update 2 hours ago still had me for 8 to 16, but these much warmer solutions would wipe that out pretty much.Those west solutions bring an inch or two of snow.....sleet.....rain.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:22 pm

Can't believe ur happy for boston frank lol they already got like 3 ft. It's our turn they don't need 4 to 4 1/2 ft otg.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:23 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Can't believe ur happy for boston frank lol they already got like 3 ft. It's our turn they don't need 4 to 4 1/2 ft otg.

Oh Jon. You need to go get your sarcasm detector checked Wink

by **skinsfan1177** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:37 pm

It is what it is to me it's still interesting to learn and follow all this different set ups. I know kill me now lol

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:48 pm

EURO Ensembles have begun, for anybody that hasn't decided to jump head-first out the highest window they can find.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:49 pm

Through 36 low placement looks the same as Op, but weaker.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:49 pm

rb924119 wrote:EURO Ensembles have begun, for anybody that hasn't decided to jump head-first out the highest window they can find.

They look like the OP

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