Re: Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:38 pm

Soundings on the latest 00z NAM show know rain for NYC. Snow to sleet back to snow.

This is a crappy model though.

Would like to see gfs.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:38 pm

No rain*

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:39 pm

SREFS are still torching. Lucky to get 6-8 here in the Poconos according to them. I give them more merit than the NAM, unfortunately. If the GFS jumps on board again, then I'll think about it, but even then my hand is still slighted to the short-range guidance.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:40 pm

Current obs say the low is further south than what the NAM indicates

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 Post-692-0-76307500-1422758188.jpg.pagespeed.ce.GgcOsQjP0f

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 Post-692-0-76307500-1422758188.jpg.pagespeed.ce.GgcOsQjP0f

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:41 pm

look at where it is at 18z Monday. and look at 850"s unbelievable
Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 Namconus_T850_us_15

by **aiannone** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:42 pm

talking to a senior at oswego and he says toss the NAM, initialized wrong with moisture content. it initialized much drier than current obs

by **Dunnzoo** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

Was just trying to find current conditions instead of looking at the models....just hope it stays south, I don't want any icing issues. Mugs and I are always on the border as it is...

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

algae888 wrote:look at where it is at 18z Monday. and look at 850"s unbelievable

Doesn't matter. By then precip shuts off

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 NAM_CritThickRH_ne_f42

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:SREFS are still torching. Lucky to get 6-8 here in the Poconos according to them. I give them more merit than the NAM, unfortunately. If the GFS jumps on board again, then I'll think about it, but even then my hand is still slighted to the short-range guidance.

Theyre basically NAM ensembles and Ive noticed they have a pretty over amped bias and pretty inaccurate outside the very short range but thats just my opinion.

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

I do not believe nam. the front end snow maybe but not from 12z on. changes are crazy

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:43 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Current obs say the low is further south than what the NAM indicates

Frank, what is that map of; 3-hour pressure tendencies?

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:44 pm

aiannone wrote:talking to a senior at oswego and he says toss the NAM, initialized wrong with moisture content. it initialized much drier than current obs

Throw away the NAM? But it's the best model...

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:44 pm

Rb- yes

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:45 pm

Even so just to show the point frank made no rain, BUT damn look at that ice, that far south hard to believe though.

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 Nam_ic12

Update #2: 1st Call Snow Map, Intense Winter Storm Coming - Page 17 Nam_ic12

by **algae888** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:45 pm

frank I know just amazing how much faster nam was with exiting this storm. I would love for it to exit quickly. good front end dump followed by brief mix and then done. ill take it

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:46 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:SREFS are still torching. Lucky to get 6-8 here in the Poconos according to them. I give them more merit than the NAM, unfortunately. If the GFS jumps on board again, then I'll think about it, but even then my hand is still slighted to the short-range guidance.
Theyre basically NAM ensembles and Ive noticed they have a pretty over amped bias and pretty inaccurate outside the very short range but thats just my opinion.

You're absolutely right, but we are into their window now (in my opinion). Idk, personally, I think they're very good inside of 24 hours, and it isn't looking good.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:46 pm

NAM is most bullish with ice. GGEM too. GFS and EURO not impressed. But, if you take a blend of the gfs and euro temp profiles they probably show ice.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:46 pm

I got ur sarcasm there Frank lol, lets see what GFS does.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:46 pm

Might as well throw away all the models because theyre all going to be wrong in the end...

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:47 pm

rb924119 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:
rb924119 wrote:SREFS are still torching. Lucky to get 6-8 here in the Poconos according to them. I give them more merit than the NAM, unfortunately. If the GFS jumps on board again, then I'll think about it, but even then my hand is still slighted to the short-range guidance.
Theyre basically NAM ensembles and Ive noticed they have a pretty over amped bias and pretty inaccurate outside the very short range but thats just my opinion.

You're absolutely right, but we are into their window now (in my opinion). Idk, personally, I think they're very good inside of 24 hours, and it isn't looking good.

I kinda like RGEM and GEM-LAM

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Rb- yes

Those pressure falls are probably being dominated by WAA at the surface. Think of the concept of thickness. Just my opinion.

by **jmanley32** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:48 pm

Frank GFS on wxbell also shows the breakdown like NAM, just doesnt for CMC or Euro, dunno why.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Even so just to show the point frank made no rain, BUT damn look at that ice, that far south hard to believe though.

More snow on this run but also more ZR then rain, eww.

by **rb924119** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:50 pm

@Frank- GEM-LAM? Hmmm I've never heard of that one before. Where can you find that?

@Jman- I wish the snow part could verify for all of us lmao I think we'd all be happy :p

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:52 pm

It's on weatherbell and pretty accurate inside 24 hours

by **NjWeatherGuy** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:53 pm

So I just checked the NAM on e wall, for me it has snow directly to rain then to the ZR back to a little snow on the backend maybe an inch as all levels
crashes.

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:54 pm

rb924119 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Rb- yes

Those pressure falls are probably being dominated by WAA at the surface. Think of the concept of thickness. Just my opinion.

Probably. Meaning the storm is already deepening?

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