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Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 01, 2015 10:59 am

@jimv45 wrote:heavy rain for who?

Jim, I'm up here in Hyde Park. It looks like we will still get 8-12 and mostly snow but it still may mix up here for a few hours on Monday morning. 0 line seems to get a little north of Poughkeepsie for awhile. Albany NWS doesn't even mention mixing for it's southern zones but it looks like a real possibility although it should be brief. Do you still have a friend at Albany NWS? If so what does he say?
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:00 am

close call but I think you still end up well

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:04 am

no hyde he doesn't work there anymore so its hard to get any talk about here the cold air will be diving south for tonight and tomorrow just can't see it changing much if it does not long  temps tonight 21 and a high of 23 tomorrow!

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:11 am

@jimv45 wrote:no hyde he doesn't work there anymore so its hard to get any talk about here the cold air will be diving south for tonight and tomorrow just can't see it changing much if it does not long  temps tonight 21 and a high of 23 tomorrow!

The surface temps will be in the 20's tomorrow but mid-levels will warm and my gut says we mix for a while and that will keep accumulations down a bit but 8-12 is still a good thumping of snow.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:13 am

yes I still think the models are pushing that warm air to north but will see 8-12 is what I see anyway mix or not!

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:18 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Just woke up see soul what did I tell ya. 4 to 8 and yikes 1/4 ice which was upped from.1 to .25 storm will be interesting for sure. Could get dangerous monday and again tues morning. Frank I know this is a crap shoot but that darker ice area or any of it for th as t fact is me if u were to guess will this effect travel.in the am monday or be during the day? Wil it be wise for me to travel to work Monday morning if I have to?

Work home

Yeah figured but thats not a luxary we all have, being that our records are private we cannot work from home unless instructed to by agency and even then I have none of my contact information here. So hoping tomorrow they make the right decision or I will have to decide what to do on my own, thats for the headsup tht it'll be bad obviously snow frz or both, or maybe even rain as gfs snows now. if its rain and snow i can probably drive.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:22 am

hyde your north of me so you will most likely exceed a foot while southern dutchess see the 8-10 if no mixing I can see 12

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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:28 am

@jimv45 wrote:hyde your north of me so you will most likely exceed a foot while southern dutchess see the 8-10 if no mixing I can see 12

I still think it will mix up to mid-north Dutchess. Areas that see all snow will probably see 12-15 but I'll be happy with 8-10 if that happens.
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Post by hyde345 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:32 am

Jim, this really is a now cast situation. It will be interesting to see how far north the mixing gets tomorrow.


Last edited by hyde345 on Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:40 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:37 am

yea hyde your right just hope no ice just think models are pushing that warm air to north but will see!

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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:39 am

Several WX people have tweeted Upton yelling at them for not issuing an ice storm warning for LI & NYC, saying no one will take ice threat seriously without it. I don't know why though; a WSW covers ice when there's also snow involved. And if people took the time to read the storm presser released with each advisory/warning, they'd know what to expect. No..?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:44 am

Agreed soul but they DON'T! We need a ice storm warning asap, how do I email them I agree the public will only think a wsw is snow, and even then unless there is big hype they will take no heed about ice. For somereason its seen as the lesser from snow, NOT
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Post by SoulSingMG Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:46 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Agreed soul but they DON'T! We need a ice storm warning asap, how do I email them I agree the public will only think a wsw is snow, and even then unless there is big hype they will take no heed about ice.  For somereason its seen as the lesser from snow, NOT

Well. Taking 12z guidance into account, I wouldn't bother Jman. If trends continue warmer, we may see NYC and points south drop to advisory levels.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:47 am

soul where did you see these complaints? I looked at their twitter and saw nothing, they must have removed them. careless IMO, if this ice threat is real which a 1/4 inch seems to be the consensus with some models showing a lot more.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:48 am

well i am not in NYC, im concerned about overyone but of course I am concerned for my backyard too. Yeah i am just going to let it ly, they arent going to listen anyways.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:51 am

cmc has far les precip than past runs, 850s hit 1 degree c or higher all the way into southern WC, then crash at hr 36, thats a long period of torching, will that be rain or ice?
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:02 pm

Soundings for Monday morning..... solid red line = temp,     blue line = wetbulb temp,    green line= dewpoint temp

Update #3: Final Snow Map, Ice Accretion, Flash Freeze  - Page 4 Rap_2510

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2020-2021  51.1"

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020         8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:16 pm

We don't need an icestorm warning.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:17 pm

I'm surprised some areas are still in winter storm warnings

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Post by RJB8525 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:20 pm

Hm, 34* here...things are actually melting. does the temp doing up in southern areas not bold well?
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:22 pm

I'm currently working on my final call map. Unfortunately, I've changed southern areas significantly. Really hoping I will be able to change it again in a positive way later tonight, but it's not looking so good. I will post it after we see what the Euro says.
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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:22 pm

its 34 in dutchess but going down to 20 but not going to start until tonight

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:25 pm

Accuwx is calling for .3 ice accretion for my area, what is the criteria for a ice storm warning my bad I thought it was 0.25 or above, are u starting to believe this will not be a issue or is it pretty much a nowcast? I want to let my friends and family what to expect for the morning commute, but from I have read and your great analysis Frank seems like a big ?
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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:45 pm

Hey I was just reading forecast discos from Mt. Holly/Binghampton, and they said that the GFS is over-amplifying the system, while the EURO seems to be a little too cold. They are going with a "middle of the road approach, which follows the NAM". Interesting.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Feb 01, 2015 12:48 pm

"A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTH AND RUNG
OUT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY LEAD TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING. THE RAIN/ WINTRY MIX LINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH FROM THE
NORTHERN SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
CENTRAL NJ FROM 12-15Z. A SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM OFFSHORE AS WELL
DURING THE MORNING WHICH COULD ALLOW COLD AIR TO ADVECT IN AT THE
SURFACE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND. MAV AND MET BOTH APPEAR TO WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THE ECMWF TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COLD. THE CAA WOULD
STOP THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. A WARM
NOSE MAY MAKE ALL THE WAY INTO THE POCONOS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY IF
THE 00Z GFS SOUNDING IS TO VERIFY, SO HAVE ADDED SLEET INTO THE
EQUATION HERE. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST IS MAINLY DERIVED
FROM THE 00Z NAM. THE 00Z GFS LOOKED TO HAVE TO INTENSE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS FOR MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE ECMWF IS STILL ON THE COOLER END OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE NAM IN
BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS. THE SREF AND WPC QPF FORECAST WAS USED AS
WELL WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON QPF IN THIS PERIOD. THIS RESULTS
IN ADDITIONAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA IN THIS PERIOD. ALSO, SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
30 MPH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS MONDAY EVENING AS WELL."

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