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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Empty Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:19 pm

It's amazing to me how dry the euro is compared to other models. I just can't believe it right now. I think the RGEM/UKIE/GFS are the right trio to go by. Heres 12z ukie snowmap

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  PA_000-072_0000

That's still showing 2-4 inches of snow for NYC, even though it may only accumulate on non road surfaces. At this point, there's no sense in changing my final call. I still think the lower ended of these ranges are attainable.

I'm sticking with this.

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  10401375_885185438199883_4955338034101582846_n



Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 08, 2015 2:59 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:24 pm

Nice maps, I would be very happy with 3-6, bordering on that 4-8 but those are pretty much the same to me. The ice mapo not so nice, dangerous .2-.3, but its a nowcast as u said but overall it looks great.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:30 pm

I never said this but if need be, I will release a an updated map tomorrow morning like last storm. Latest RGEM is coming in quite snowy for northern area, does not believe in the precip cut

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  P1_GZ_D5_PN_054_0000

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Post by Grselig Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:32 pm

Thanks Frank. ice map is a bit of concern.
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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:36 pm

I think ice can be hyped up at times. A quarter of an inch of ice is fairly significant, but if people take it slow I do not think it's too bad. There use to be ice storms in the past that would drop almost 1 inch of ice. We had a decent amount of ice last week and people seemed to do much better than the one from a couple of weeks ago.

Just gotta take it easy...

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:45 pm

Working on my final map now, Frank, we have very similar thoughts.
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:51 pm

Great map Frank!! It will be quite interesting to see what wins, with respect to how much precipitation there is: Will the weak coupling to the jets win out, or will the stronger, although distancing forcing occurring from the shorter (stubbier) jet streak over New England combined with our location downstream of the main trough axes and positive vorticity advection? Gonna be a tough call, and this may one of the main reasons we are seeing the disparities.

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Post by amugs Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:01 pm

Frank good call as of now but I think the 4-8" line moves further east to bergen county and Westchester as the maps are showing another 20 mile tick as we move closer. Not as much ice but more snow and the rgem has been very good in this range

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:03 pm

Yes rb...tough call as always. What are some local Mets saying for NYC?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:04 pm

Mugs ultimately I think 4-6 inches is a good call for you, not sure I'm seeing 8 your way. But I'll re-evaluate in the morning

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:24 pm

2" of snow and. 2-.3" of ice, perfect, carbon copy of last week with a llinger duration of icing possible here it seems like.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:28 pm

Impressive CAD signature forming.
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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:32 pm

Frank I agree the ice is hyped, but I think the saving grace last nonday 2/2 was that the majority of ice fell during the day, this appears to be coming before and around sunup and morning rush, which if there is not much snow IMO will cause major issues. I think when people see no new snow they think its not as much as a worry hence why the storm with all the crashes was so bad.
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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by Yschiff Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:49 pm

SREF?

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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 8:53 pm

@Yschiff wrote:SREF?

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Sref_n10
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:13 pm

SREFs are still warm, although cooler again than before.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:14 pm

They definitely want to keep the axis of heaviest precipitation over central NY and points east, although it's really not all that heavy......5-.75" of liquid QPF.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:44 pm

Gotta pay close attention to 18z runs tonight. I'm mobile all night so will post sparatically, but 00z rgem shows the ice threat for the same area I outlined

Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  10984281_10200263190340101_2797877175737724311_n

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Feb 07, 2015 9:49 pm

really frank the 18z runs tonight lol, I love it when I get to call u out on things.  Get some rest bud, the new life of work is kiin ya.  Awesome job as always, you hit the ice spot on.  If I had made a map I would have put it in a similar place. And thats the worst possible time for ice.
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:04 pm

For whatever it's worth (probably nothing) "that model thing" is further south for 00z than 18z was.

Didn't I say this last Saturday? lol
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Post by snow247 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:17 pm

GFS is rolling. Here's to hoping that it is even better than the earlier runs!
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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:23 pm

00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:26 pm

Hearing RGEM has .20" ice and .20" sleet for NYC

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Post by aiannone Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:27 pm

@rb924119 wrote:00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

do you have an image of total qpf?
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Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues  Empty Re: Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 07, 2015 10:35 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

do you have an image of total qpf?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020800/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020800/rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

Note that there is still more precipitation yet to fall after this, but the model does not go out any further in time.

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