Update #3: Final Snow/Ice Map, Fierce February Continues

It's amazing to me how dry the euro is compared to other models. I just can't believe it right now. I think the RGEM/UKIE/GFS are the right trio to go by. Heres 12z ukie snowmap



That's still showing 2-4 inches of snow for NYC, even though it may only accumulate on non road surfaces. At this point, there's no sense in changing my final call. I still think the lower ended of these ranges are attainable.

I'm sticking with this.

Nice maps, I would be very happy with 3-6, bordering on that 4-8 but those are pretty much the same to me. The ice mapo not so nice, dangerous .2-.3, but its a nowcast as u said but overall it looks great.

I never said this but if need be, I will release a an updated map tomorrow morning like last storm. Latest RGEM is coming in quite snowy for northern area, does not believe in the precip cut

Thanks Frank. ice map is a bit of concern.

I think ice can be hyped up at times. A quarter of an inch of ice is fairly significant, but if people take it slow I do not think it's too bad. There use to be ice storms in the past that would drop almost 1 inch of ice. We had a decent amount of ice last week and people seemed to do much better than the one from a couple of weeks ago.

Just gotta take it easy...

Working on my final map now, Frank, we have very similar thoughts.

Great map Frank!! It will be quite interesting to see what wins, with respect to how much precipitation there is: Will the weak coupling to the jets win out, or will the stronger, although distancing forcing occurring from the shorter (stubbier) jet streak over New England combined with our location downstream of the main trough axes and positive vorticity advection? Gonna be a tough call, and this may one of the main reasons we are seeing the disparities.

Frank good call as of now but I think the 4-8" line moves further east to bergen county and Westchester as the maps are showing another 20 mile tick as we move closer. Not as much ice but more snow and the rgem has been very good in this range

Yes rb...tough call as always. What are some local Mets saying for NYC?

Mugs ultimately I think 4-6 inches is a good call for you, not sure I'm seeing 8 your way. But I'll re-evaluate in the morning

2" of snow and. 2-.3" of ice, perfect, carbon copy of last week with a llinger duration of icing possible here it seems like.

Impressive CAD signature forming.

Frank I agree the ice is hyped, but I think the saving grace last nonday 2/2 was that the majority of ice fell during the day, this appears to be coming before and around sunup and morning rush, which if there is not much snow IMO will cause major issues. I think when people see no new snow they think its not as much as a worry hence why the storm with all the crashes was so bad.

SREF?

SREFs are still warm, although cooler again than before.

They definitely want to keep the axis of heaviest precipitation over central NY and points east, although it's really not all that heavy......5-.75" of liquid QPF.

Gotta pay close attention to 18z runs tonight. I'm mobile all night so will post sparatically, but 00z rgem shows the ice threat for the same area I outlined

really frank the 18z runs tonight lol, I love it when I get to call u out on things.  Get some rest bud, the new life of work is kiin ya.  Awesome job as always, you hit the ice spot on.  If I had made a map I would have put it in a similar place. And thats the worst possible time for ice.

For whatever it's worth (probably nothing) "that model thing" is further south for 00z than 18z was.

Didn't I say this last Saturday? lol

GFS is rolling. Here's to hoping that it is even better than the earlier runs!

00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

Hearing RGEM has .20" ice and .20" sleet for NYC

rb924119 wrote:00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

do you have an image of total qpf?

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:00z RGEM is a torch again lol Omg this is model mayhem at its finest.

do you have an image of total qpf?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020800/rgem_asnow_neus_16.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015020800/rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

Note that there is still more precipitation yet to fall after this, but the model does not go out any further in time.