Re: Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map

by Yschiff Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:41 am

SREFS?

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:54 am

Yschiff wrote:SREFS?

Get .25" qpf into most of our area. With ratios, that's at least 4 inches of snow.

by HEATMISER Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:56 am

Getting nervous here.. I am out on long island (centereach) central area and still no winter strorm watches posted..Whats everyones take on long island with this storm?

by **sroc4** Fri Feb 13, 2015 8:57 am

HEATMISER wrote:Getting nervous here.. I am out on long island (centereach) central area and still no winter strorm watches posted..Whats everyones take on long island with this storm?

IMHO a winterstorm watch by 3pm then winter storm warning by the morning for all of suffolk

by HEATMISER Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:00 am

Thanks Sroc... Hope it plays out that way for me and you

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:03 am

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 SREFUS24Precip09057

Slight lean west again - come on baby another 25 mile jog/tick/push west and bingo.

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:15 am

sroc do you think wsw make it to nyc, frank has me on cusp (literally like 5/10 miles tops) of 6-12 which would be a wsw even 4-8 would warrant one, or are we not going to see this trend?

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:16 am

Not A Model looking to bring the goods here - H5 closes earlier than 6Z - looks like it is going to be a very impressive storms, good squall line forming and penetrating further south at hours 33 to 36 and more amplification

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f36

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:17 am

amugs wrote:

Slight lean west again - come on baby another 25 mile jog/tick/push west and bingo.

so for nyc that's .25-.5 which is about 5-10 with a 20:1 ratio 4-8 about with 15:1, I think we may see wsw hoisted here too if things tick west for 12z.

by **rb924119** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:18 am

They definitely came further south again. The 09z suite mean has shifted another 50 miles or so south....

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:19 am

Oh Christ sake the fn NAM is stuck at hour 36 - this piece of garbage model is trying to figure out how to screw us somehow - vort 25 miles south of 6z run!

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:20 am

#south #west on qpf lol, keep the good words coming

by **rb924119** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:20 am

Surface low on the 12z may be just a hair south from 00z.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:21 am

as we wait for the NAM to jump to hour 39 - 12 z runs by European models are going to bring the goods - have a feeling - RGEM is going to show big ones today!

by **rb924119** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:22 am

amugs wrote:as we wait for the NAM to jump to hour 39 - 12 z runs by European models are going to bring the goods - have a feeling - RGEM is going to show big ones today!

Actually, knowing our luck this winter it will cave to the GFS and shift 250 miles north in one run >_< lmfao

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:22 am

FN EH BRING IT !!!

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f39

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:24 am

West side looks good as well in this run.

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:25 am

We'll take it 995mb LP passes right over or a tick south of NYC

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f42

by Guest Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:26 am

I was following along all evening and night last night but couldn't post. I'm excited about Frank's maps and the trends, but also really concerned and confused about the NWS and local mets not as enthused. Lets hope Frank is right here. He has me in the 6-12" range. (Closer to the 6" so probably around 8").

The NWS still has most of our area and even LI with less than .4 QPF!!

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:27 am

okay not bad here peeps - keep dropping south

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_500mbHgtVort_ne_f42

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:29 am

The 700mb low tracks over Philly on this run - this is good for NYC, NENJ and LI - jesus so much cold air teh IVT location could be from NNJ out to LI and another one in NE - f them!

Look
Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

Update#2: BLOG + 1st Call Snow Map - Page 11 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f45

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:33 am

that looks good for the mid-hudson valley that dark green comes right at me!

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:34 am

Looking at isobars they are basically pointing South as it comes from the GL area - very good sign and as the low forms. Deformation bands are going to be great and look to be large in size too - inching closer to a big one for the entire metro area IMO.

RGEM up next!! and me back to teaching ugghhhhh! Checkin' back later.

Can you tell my juices are flowin' yet?

by **amugs** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:35 am

jimv45 wrote:that looks good for the mid-hudson valley that dark green comes right at me!

Pictures of your backyard after you get smacked with that band Jim! cheers

by **skinsfan1177** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:36 am

Cnj coast had to be in good shape on these runs correct

by **jimv45** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:42 am

i think everyone is going to get a surprise I think tonights runs will show that!

by **jmanley32** Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:47 am

you guys wanna see the nam 10:1 snow map?

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