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Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

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Post by Guest Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:47 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Funny. The weekend storm screws NYC and it may also indirectly screw us with the Tuesday setup.


Frank I need a break!! First off I am very technologically dumb to put it mildly so I want no part of running this forum for a week. It's all yours! Secondly based on your above post I'm signing off for awhile. Too many letdowns. First Boston jackpots every storm now south and mid-atlantic begin to jackpot while Boston still gets theirs. I can't.

Thanks for what you do and your hard work, but I absolve you from your bet!!! I'm signing off and will be back on if I wake up to 6+ Wednesday morning. Too much disappointment. It's only the weather and I can't let it change my state of mind.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:49 am

UKMET still coming in north

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:49 am

Hey now, 12z UKMET is a little closer to the coast.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:54 am

UKMET looks very nice, can't wait to see the EURO.
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:55 am

Jim, I have been watching for 54 years and this is par for the course in tri-state area winters.Lot's of disappointments but there still are possibilities here and I won't give up until the end of March.

The models are frustrating but they are all we have right now and I have confidence that someday they will be analyzed by minds far greater than mine and the errors in predicting will get less and less.

All this frustration makes it more enjoyable when a huge 20 inch snowstorm hits.It's like fishing, if you caught a trout on every cast, it would be boring.Gotta get skunked once in a while to enjoy those 10 fish days.

OK, if this slides south, so be it.Those areas have gotten nada all winter.Still plenty of time to get a big one up here.
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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:56 am

UKMET would be around 4"-8" for the area with ratios included or maybe a little more correct?
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Post by Biggin23 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:57 am

I don't think 5 inches is out of the question with how everything is trending here on the coastal plain in CNJ. It is going to be cold and no R/S worries for a change. Let's hope the Euro keeps the trend going....

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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 15, 2015 11:57 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Hey now, 12z UKMET is a little closer to the coast.

Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla? - Page 4 P1_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000

There you go! Lot's of times these southern storms start out S or OTS and work their way back.Anyway, this is going to be a hoot to track,LOL!
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:00 pm

There's much more digging with the Plains s/w on the Euro/Ukmet which allows heights to rise a little more on the EC. With the -epo/+pna couplet it's a possible solution. Just have to wait and see. I said yesterday tonight's 00z runs should be most telling.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:01 pm

@snow247 wrote:UKMET would be around 4"-8" for the area with ratios included or maybe a little more correct?

4-6, yes

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:02 pm

UKMET qpf is .3-.4 NYC points NW, with ratios is 4-6" and SE of NYC qpf is .4-.6 and with ratios is 6-8" or so. EURO should be interesting

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Post by jimv45 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:03 pm

yea docs giving up to strong just not seeing the trend that we need but this storm Tuesday has chance all I am saying is it would be a waste with this great cold air not to cash in lets hope!

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Post by oldtimer Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:03 pm

Yea Doc Back in the day the METS had a lot of "GUT" feelings in their forecasts Now looks what's available to this generation I will take 3-4 with this storm just to add to snowpack and a fresh coat of white gold

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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:12 pm

whats the biggest driver for this forecast not working out? The 50/50 low that flattens out the heights?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:13 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:whats the biggest driver for this forecast not working out?  The 50/50 low  that flattens out the heights?

100% correct.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:13 pm

Looks like a good hit for Cnj again. Got about 6 inches from this storm
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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:15 pm

so we need to hope that its not as strong as shown on some models?

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:15 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Looks like a good hit for Cnj again. Got about 6 inches from this storm

Nice, maybe your buddies will listen to you next go around.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:17 pm

Frank I wish but they don't because we'll let's leave it at that most guys do listen I get asked non stop and I tell them all the news
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:17 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:so we need to hope that its not as strong as shown on some models?

Rather, we need to hope the ridging in the west is enough to dig the Midwest short wave enough so heights respond favorably along the east coast.

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Post by Sanchize06 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:18 pm

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

Siding with the Ukmet/Euro instead of the Nam/Gfs

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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:20 pm

what does the western ridge depend on? (sorry for all the questions, just want to learn a bit and curious how this works from a meteorological standpoint)

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:23 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:what does the western ridge depend on? (sorry for all the questions, just want to learn a bit and curious how this works from a meteorological standpoint)

A west ridge forms when there is a large Pacific trough. Winds shift from east to south and positive heights overtake the western U.S. Tropical forcing, seen through the MJO, is another instance of rising air allowing ridge formation.

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Post by lglickman1 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:24 pm

Thanks!

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Post by snow247 Sun Feb 15, 2015 12:40 pm

This would be the first Miller A that we have had this winter.
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