Update #1: From arctic freeze to possible Godzilla?

syosnow94 wrote:

docstox12 wrote:The models suggest but I will look at the radar when the storm hits.Last night's radar at 9PM told the tale.The low formed off DC and went almost due east.Saw the precip moving that way and knew we were in trouble.The steering winds took it E-SE and then sharply  up North so Jim Cantore could do his thundersnow dance,LOL!

i watched the Cantore video and loved it.  Lets face it we are ALL jealous!  He's living the dream.  He gets to be in the heaviest snows and tracks the weather and gets paid for it.  I love the guy.  Oh and by the way TWC has been pretty accurate as much as it pains a lot of us to hear.

Agree. I would pay to be in Boston now just to see what it's like. As a winter weather enthusiast, you have to find it somewhat fascinating.

Frank_Wx wrote:12Z Summary:   Tue (AM-PM)  2/17

QPF  NYC region

SREF:  0.25 - 0.50  (West to East)
NAM:  020 - 0.50 (west to east)
GFS: 0.15 - 0.40 (west to east)
GGEM: 0.10 - 0.30

Looks pretty good, with ratios seems like a solid 3-6" for most and we haven't seen the UKIE/EURO at 12z yet and they were the most north models.

Frank_Wx wrote:Funny. The weekend storm screws NYC and it may also indirectly screw us with the Tuesday setup.

Frank I need a break!! First off I am very technologically dumb to put it mildly so I want no part of running this forum for a week. It's all yours! Secondly based on your above post I'm signing off for awhile. Too many letdowns. First Boston jackpots every storm now south and mid-atlantic begin to jackpot while Boston still gets theirs. I can't.

Thanks for what you do and your hard work, but I absolve you from your bet!!! I'm signing off and will be back on if I wake up to 6+ Wednesday morning. Too much disappointment. It's only the weather and I can't let it change my state of mind.

UKMET still coming in north

Hey now, 12z UKMET is a little closer to the coast.

UKMET looks very nice, can't wait to see the EURO.

Jim, I have been watching for 54 years and this is par for the course in tri-state area winters.Lot's of disappointments but there still are possibilities here and I won't give up until the end of March.

The models are frustrating but they are all we have right now and I have confidence that someday they will be analyzed by minds far greater than mine and the errors in predicting will get less and less.

All this frustration makes it more enjoyable when a huge 20 inch snowstorm hits.It's like fishing, if you caught a trout on every cast, it would be boring.Gotta get skunked once in a while to enjoy those 10 fish days.

OK, if this slides south, so be it.Those areas have gotten nada all winter.Still plenty of time to get a big one up here.

UKMET would be around 4"-8" for the area with ratios included or maybe a little more correct?

I don't think 5 inches is out of the question with how everything is trending here on the coastal plain in CNJ. It is going to be cold and no R/S worries for a change. Let's hope the Euro keeps the trend going....

Frank_Wx wrote:Hey now, 12z UKMET is a little closer to the coast.

There you go! Lot's of times these southern storms start out S or OTS and work their way back.Anyway, this is going to be a hoot to track,LOL!

There's much more digging with the Plains s/w on the Euro/Ukmet which allows heights to rise a little more on the EC. With the -epo/+pna couplet it's a possible solution. Just have to wait and see. I said yesterday tonight's 00z runs should be most telling.

snow247 wrote:UKMET would be around 4"-8" for the area with ratios included or maybe a little more correct?

4-6, yes

UKMET qpf is .3-.4 NYC points NW, with ratios is 4-6" and SE of NYC qpf is .4-.6 and with ratios is 6-8" or so. EURO should be interesting

yea docs giving up to strong just not seeing the trend that we need but this storm Tuesday has chance all I am saying is it would be a waste with this great cold air not to cash in lets hope!

Yea Doc Back in the day the METS had a lot of "GUT" feelings in their forecasts Now looks what's available to this generation I will take 3-4 with this storm just to add to snowpack and a fresh coat of white gold

whats the biggest driver for this forecast not working out? The 50/50 low that flattens out the heights?

lglickman1 wrote:whats the biggest driver for this forecast not working out?  The 50/50 low  that flattens out the heights?

100% correct.

Looks like a good hit for Cnj again. Got about 6 inches from this storm

so we need to hope that its not as strong as shown on some models?

skinsfan1177 wrote:Looks like a good hit for Cnj again. Got about 6 inches from this storm

Nice, maybe your buddies will listen to you next go around.

Frank I wish but they don't because we'll let's leave it at that most guys do listen I get asked non stop and I tell them all the news

lglickman1 wrote:so we need to hope that its not as strong as shown on some models?

Rather, we need to hope the ridging in the west is enough to dig the Midwest short wave enough so heights respond favorably along the east coast.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

Siding with the Ukmet/Euro instead of the Nam/Gfs

what does the western ridge depend on? (sorry for all the questions, just want to learn a bit and curious how this works from a meteorological standpoint)

lglickman1 wrote:what does the western ridge depend on? (sorry for all the questions, just want to learn a bit and curious how this works from a meteorological standpoint)

A west ridge forms when there is a large Pacific trough. Winds shift from east to south and positive heights overtake the western U.S. Tropical forcing, seen through the MJO, is another instance of rising air allowing ridge formation.

Thanks!

This would be the first Miller A that we have had this winter.