Re: February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:09 pm

I might just be seeing things because I haven't slept much lately, but doesn't the precip in PA look like it's going almost due north on the last few frames on this radar?

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 9 Post-747-0-98691600-1424142481

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 9 Post-747-0-98691600-1424142481

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:10 pm

Here's a better look at the radar.

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 9 Post-747-0-42105900-1424142491

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:11 pm

Dry air is carving out a hole in the heart of the system into VA, I am concerned. SREFS have been slowly backing down all day, maybe the CMC was onto something.

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:20 pm

From a very knowledgeable poster on the other board:

"The models are all wrong. I'm telling you there's a propagation of a wave along the northern axis of the precip shield somewhere in the mid-levels. It could be as simple as stray vorticity maxima in the STJ/PJ wave interacting with the record cold cAA. Remember, this has its roots in the STJ and has a deep GOM moisture fetch. "

by **amugs** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:22 pm

Like I posted before the dry air dome over us Tom xo alluded to this in the long range after sat storm shame on him. The weather gods listened!!!

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:24 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Dry air is carving out a hole in the heart of the system into VA, I am concerned. SREFS have been slowly backing down all day, maybe the CMC was onto something.

Appears to be filling in now.

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:25 pm

Very very dry here, going to take a long time for saturation

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:25 pm

Here's the full post:

"The models are all wrong. I'm telling you there's a propagation of a wave along the northern axis of the precip shield somewhere in the mid-levels. It could be as simple as stray vorticity maxima in the STJ/PJ wave interacting with the record cold cAA. Remember, this has its roots in the STJ and has a deep GOM moisture fetch.

I mean, come on guys, not one piece of data had anything CLOSE to this!

I'm not purporting NYC gets 6-10" here, but there is going to be major busts on the northern side of this."

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:26 pm

Anyone else impressed with current radar? Definitely think central NJ will see good snow. At least 4".

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Anyone else impressed with current radar? Definitely think central NJ will see good snow. At least 4".

Yes and I agree.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:46 pm

Wow! Tommmmmmm

February 17th Storm: 1st Call Snow Map and Observations - Page 9 Inxr1Kphla_h

by Yschiff Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:48 pm

Frank do you think the jfk area could see 3-6"?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:49 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:49 pm

Yschiff wrote:Frank do you think the jfk area could see 3-6"?

No, 4 max.

by **Vinnydula** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:50 pm

Looks like it's coming right for nyc

by **RJB8525** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:51 pm

meanwhile Mr.G and Nick Gregory think 1-2 now for the city..lmao

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:51 pm

Vinnydula wrote:Looks like it's coming right for nyc

The heaviest returns are heading toward CNJ

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:53 pm

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:56 pm

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:57 pm

Come on friggin dry air budge out of here already.

by **rb924119** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:57 pm

As cold as it was today, it's gonna take a lot of this just to saturate the column

by **NjWeatherGuy** Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:58 pm

Lightning reported in Camden, NJ across from Philly read from Accuwx forums.

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:03 pm

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:05 pm

According to radar, precip looks to be getting up to the PA/NY border now.

Guy in State College already reporting almost an inch, was that expected for there?

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:06 pm

by **snow247** Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:06 pm

by **amugs** Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:07 pm

Snow I saw that too from amenzo. I hope he is right. Water vapor loop to see this?

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