HomeFinal Call Snow Map - February 21st
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
by docstox12 Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:13 am
sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Nws went from 4 to 6 to 2 to 3 on map but has 3 to 7 in wwa huh?
Jman they make me laugh. I mean they have already changed there forecast 3 times in 24hrs for my area. this is what they looked like yest morning this time. Then 4pm udate yesterday they had pretty much all of LI in the <1", and now again they are back to 2-3". I mean grow a set, make a foprecast and stick to it. Then when you now cast make your changes. Its an embarrassment. Sorry this is banter...I digress.
Thank you Doc for putting into words the exact way I feel about the NWS song and dance on this storm!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
by jmanley32 Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:25 am
ya it really is sroc, i used to trust in them a lot more.
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Re: Final Call Snow Map - February 21st
by sroc4 Sat Feb 21, 2015 7:28 am
This comment was made on the 18th by Larry Cosgrove. This was when the LP was a strong GLC soln:
The latest model trends have a contiguous system which crosses middle Appalachia into PA and NJ. I account for snow cover, depth of cold air, and the fact that, for all of the warm air advecting north along the backside of the surface high, the push of warmer air gets subverted by the surge of Arctic values. Remember that cold air always wins out over warmth when a westerly component is noted with 500MB winds. So I see a changeover scenario whereas others may only be looking at rain.
So if you look at the current mesoscale analysis at 850mb you can see the flood gates are open for business to the GOM; the blue indicates the freezing line:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-87.32,35.91,2048
But as the comment states above 500mb is westerly:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.69,37.64,2048
The point here is that it is going to be a positive now cast for many on this board...I think...esp for my friends N and W.
The latest model trends have a contiguous system which crosses middle Appalachia into PA and NJ. I account for snow cover, depth of cold air, and the fact that, for all of the warm air advecting north along the backside of the surface high, the push of warmer air gets subverted by the surge of Arctic values. Remember that cold air always wins out over warmth when a westerly component is noted with 500MB winds. So I see a changeover scenario whereas others may only be looking at rain.
So if you look at the current mesoscale analysis at 850mb you can see the flood gates are open for business to the GOM; the blue indicates the freezing line:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-87.32,35.91,2048
But as the comment states above 500mb is westerly:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-82.69,37.64,2048
The point here is that it is going to be a positive now cast for many on this board...I think...esp for my friends N and W.
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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