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Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:29 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Thanks Mugs!! Here is the 06z GFS Ensemble MEAN TOTAL SNOWFALL based on 10:

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/snosums/0072/GFS_06_enUS_SF_0108.png

Pretty impressive for an ensemble mean....

Looks like S and E jackpots on this one.

Doc, I wouldn't be too sure just yet. In my upcoming posts I'll explain...

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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:33 am

good morning boys and girls. got a good laugh reading through the last few pages. wow what a week ahead no sleep for a few days. yes doc nws lowered temps for tues. night and wens just like mugs said and could have a serious ice threat by wens. morning. for thurs wow nam
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:37 am

@rb924119 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@rb924119 wrote:Thanks Mugs!! Here is the 06z GFS Ensemble MEAN TOTAL SNOWFALL based on 10:

http://images1.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/06/snosums/0072/GFS_06_enUS_SF_0108.png

Pretty impressive for an ensemble mean....

Looks like S and E jackpots on this one.

Doc, I wouldn't be too sure just yet. In my upcoming posts I'll explain...

Would sure be a trend breaker, rb, if it wasn't!
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:38 am

@algae888 wrote:good morning boys and girls. got a good laugh reading through the last few pages. wow what a week ahead no sleep for a few days. yes doc nws lowered temps for tues. night and wens just like mugs said and could have a serious ice threat by wens. morning. for thurs wow nam
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_081_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip

I'm thinking 35-40 for Weds up here Al.
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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:46 am

yes doc and a bad ice storm wens. morn. frank and mugs mentioned this last night. maybe no school for kids wens and thurs. one for ice and one for snow. this pattern doesn't want to end. Very Happy what's interesting is that we have had no big wound up storm since juno and look at all the snow we have gotten.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:50 am

Wow those maps look great for coast
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:52 am

Boy do I love the sound of a weather discussion first-thing in the morning Very Happy

Ok, so here is the 00z CMC/GEM Operational H5 map for 00z Thursday:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015030200/gem_z500_vort_us_13.png

If you look back a couple pages, you will see that this is very close to a triple phase between the three key players. Anyway, that is not what I want you to focus on. Instead, focus on the 552 dam black contour line over the southwestern U.S. and notice how it slices through the Panhandle of Texas and northeastern New Mexico.

Here is the 00z CMC/GEM Ensemble H5 spaghetti plot for the same time:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/CAN/EN/00/CAN_00_enUS_H50S_0072.png

Although there are some slight timing differences, which could also impact this event but I am not concerned with here, look at how many ensemble members either support the Operational OR actually show a deeper trough. This is a very good sign for this to trend north in coming runs. If it was more evenly split, then I'd be concerned, but to have roughly 70-80% of the ensemble members showing deeper H5 evolution (which likely means more interaction between the three waves) is key. This is not alone, though. The deeper solution also has strong support from both the NAM and the UKMET:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2015030200/nam_z500_vort_us_25.png

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/ukmet00_QQ500.11.gif?t=1425300098

As I mentioned there are also differences in timing, which as you can see the southern end of the main trough in the two posts immediately above is kicked east versus the CMC, but the depth is still there. Timing is very easy to change for the faster, especially with increasing baroclinicty of late-winter.

These three models (and respective ensembles) are also not alone. Take a look at the 12z and then 00z EURO Ensemble for the same time (Thursday 00z):

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/12/ECM_12_enUS_H50S_0084.png

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/ECM/EN/00/ECM_00_enUS_H50S_0072.png

Even though the mean is relatively unchanged, look at how the southern members (which again is a majority of the ensemble) are clustered in the same region as the other models mentioned earlier. Also take notice how much sharper the trough became from 12z to last night's 00z. Again, this is a great sign because this is showing more interaction between the three systems.

Lastly, here is the 00z GFS Ensemble H5 spaghetti plot for Thursday 00z:

http://images0.earthsat.com/misc/mod-images/GFS/EN/00/GFS_00_enUS_H50S_0072.png

Look at how much of a northern outlier the Operational is to its own ensemble!!! It's in the weakest 15%....85% of its ensemble members are deeper than it, with 55% of the entire ensemble (so more than that with respect the members already south of the Operational) in exact agreement with all of the other models and ensemble spreads. Moral to the strory, I would start anticipating a northward jog with subsequent runs amongst the global suite, and to have a consensus near the NAM/UKMET solutions AS IT STANDS NOW. This could always change lol Those are my thoughts.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 7:57 am

Al, to complement your maps posted above:

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Usa_as10

Dream on baby, dream on.....

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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:09 am

@rb924119 wrote:Al, to complement your maps posted above:

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Usa_as10

Dream on baby, dream on.....
rb nice. we are now inside 72hrs so looking more likely to happen than not. going off of model biases which someone mentioned a few pages back I think we'll see a solution between the nam (north) and gfs (south) which should put the majority of our area in the 6-12" range. wouldn't that be nice. big runs the next few days and how strong that low (tues,) gets and where boundary sets up is key. storms have been trending in our favor of late big change from earlier this year and of course last march.
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Post by amugs Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:22 am

Guys,

Lets get through Tues into Wed first but I am chomping at the bit for the MECS/Godzilla potential Thursday. The Tues Storm will have an affect on Thurs as it has gone all winter long.


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Post by Guest Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:24 am

rb924119!! Your operational maps with the colors and the white mean included are one of the best, most informative easy to understand things I've seen on this sight. Thank you!! You have contributed a lot to the forum. You and Frank both only in your early 20's teaching us is amazing. You deserve a foot plus IYBY from this next one. Laughing Laughing

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 02, 2015 8:27 am

Nam seems way north at this time
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:08 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam seems way north at this time

skins, I think it will be an average of the gfs and NAM.
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:12 am

Local Mets are only calling for flurries and snow showers Thursday for my area. With the way things are going for my area I think they may be right. We only ended up with 2.4 inches from this last event.
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Post by SNOW MAN Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:13 am

Local Mets are only calling for flurries and snow showers Thursday for my area. With the way things are going for my area I think they may be right. We only ended up with 2.4 inches from this last event.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:14 am

@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam seems way north at this time

skins, I think it will be an average of the gfs and NAM.

Got you doc but Nam is out of range at this point
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:24 am

@SNOW MAN wrote:Local Mets are only calling for flurries and snow showers Thursday for my area. With the way things are going for my area I think they may be right. We only ended up with 2.4 inches from this last event.

SNOW, it hasn't been your winter, buddy.I'm more N and E of you so I have caught more snow from these weird storms.We need a big one a little W of the BM so we stay snow while S and E go slop/rain.Those are our jackpot storms.
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Post by docstox12 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:26 am

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:
@skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam seems way north at this time

skins, I think it will be an average of the gfs and NAM.

Got you doc but Nam is out of range at this point

Skins, anyway, you have to pretty much go nowcast on these storms this winter, models have been bizarre.
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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:54 am

12z NAM total snowfall map:

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Usa_as11

Not as juicy, but still fun

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:55 am

syosnow94 wrote:rb924119!!  Your operational maps with the colors and the white mean included are one of the best, most informative easy to understand things I've seen on this sight.  Thank you!!  You have contributed a lot to the forum.  You and Frank both only in your early 20's teaching us is amazing.  You deserve a foot plus IYBY from this next one. Laughing Laughing

Thanks, Syo Smile

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:57 am

12z NAM looks impressive to me. Coast starts as rain then changes to snow.

Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 NAM_MSLPThickQPF_ne_f72

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Post by algae888 Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:58 am

12z nam looks great!
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_072_850_temp_mslp_precip
Possible Snowstorm Thursday, 3/5 - Page 6 Nam_namer_075_850_temp_mslp_precip
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 9:58 am

Check out some of these SREF plume snow amounts

Some full run SREF plumes for fun:

EWR - 5.76" - one member 18.56"
BLM - 6.53" - one member 20.49"
LGA - Similar to EWR
JFK - 6.15" - one member 18.29"
HPN - 5.53" - one member 17.64"
PHL - 7.45 - one member 23.16"

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Post by rb924119 Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:04 am

This includes ratios:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=BGM

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Mar 02, 2015 10:20 am

The GFS OP is a red flag. I want to see that correct soon. The GEFS are a bit more bullish which is good

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