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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:07 am

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Nino34

Gradual trend to +2.0*C...

I do think Nino region 3.4 makes it to 2.0*C. The question is, when will it peak? An early fall peak with a decline back to moderate Nino is possible

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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:19 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@dkodgis wrote:http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/13/weather/el-nino-2015/index.html

I am not a believer it gets as strong as 1997-1998 yet

@weatherwatchermom wrote:http://www.cbsnews.com/news/noaa-warning-that-godzilla-el-nino-could-hit-u-s/



How dare they steal my term. I should sue them for using Godzilla in their title.


Frank I thought the same thing!! lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:23 am

@Frank_Wx wrote:Accuweather preliminary winter outlook

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 650x366_08111416_2015-2016-winter-highlights-adc

I wonder what their definition of  not so cold means...we have had that 20 below feeling weather winter 2013-2014 and some cold days last year....or does that just mean cold icy cold rainy weather??....I am excited to see you come out of summer hibernation!! ps..if you are still doing the meet up on the 11th we will be at Comic Con.I might leave boys and swing by...
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:29 am

never mind I read the article...sorry...they explained...I am still excited to hear your take on all this information!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:30 am

I cannot speak for them but I think they are saying we will see temperatures closer to normal. Not as many -5 to as low as -15 below normal days anymore since we'll be in an El Nino and the sub tropical jet will help spread tropical air northward. This means our storms can go either way, from blizzards to drenching nor'easters. We need HUGE help from the Atlantic this year to make sure we have enough cold air to overcome the STJ. This means having a -AO/-NAO couplet in place. I do NOT think we'll get as much help from the Pacific (-EPO) like we have seen the last 2 years. This is going to be a very interesting year with plenty of storms to track. I am excited to do the winter outlook, which I'll start within the next 4-5 weeks.

As for the get together, I will be traveling to New Orleans in mid-October so the dates will have to be re-arranged. I'll update that thread soon. Would be glad to meet you! Smile

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 14, 2015 9:39 am

PDO value for July came in at +1.84, up from +1.54 in June. Pretty confident in the PDO remaining positive this winter.

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Post by Snow88 Fri Aug 14, 2015 2:52 pm

Godzilla El Nino is coming
http://kfor.com/2015/08/13/experts-say-godzilla-el-nino-may-be-coming/

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:16 pm

@Snow88 wrote:Godzilla El Nino is coming
http://kfor.com/2015/08/13/experts-say-godzilla-el-nino-may-be-coming/


DON'T CALL IT GODZILLA!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Fri Aug 14, 2015 7:52 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@Snow88 wrote:Godzilla El Nino is coming
http://kfor.com/2015/08/13/experts-say-godzilla-el-nino-may-be-coming/


DON'T CALL IT GODZILLA!
Frank you should ask NOAA for copyright fees! lol!
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Post by billg315 Fri Aug 14, 2015 10:39 pm

As soon as I heard them use the term Godzilla I said, "wait, they can't use Frank's terms!" If I hear them reference a Roidzilla El Niño I'm going to know they're stealing from this site.
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Post by Dtone Fri Aug 14, 2015 11:19 pm

Fear of a (non) winter like 1997-98 is spreading. Besides a strong El Nino I have no idea what the set up was otherwise that year. I wonder if anyone knows.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Sat Aug 15, 2015 5:41 am

Can't believe that people are already saying winter will be warm and not snowy it's way to early old man winter may say different
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Post by Snow88 Sat Aug 15, 2015 9:08 am

@Dtone wrote:Fear of a (non) winter like 1997-98 is spreading. Besides a strong El Nino I have no idea what the set up was otherwise that year. I wonder if anyone knows.

I have no clue why though
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Post by docstox12 Sat Aug 15, 2015 9:29 am

Way too soon to tell.Other factors could modify a super strong Nino.We will see by early December about all this.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Sat Aug 15, 2015 9:39 am

If the El Nino is an eastern based one, then yes we would most likely be in trouble as it would overwhelm the pattern. Since this is a basin wide event, other variables come into play. Our PDO is currently positive, and it looks like it will probably remain that way into the winter which helps our cause if you want cold and snowy. If we have blocking in the Atlantic, that would really help. Too soon to tell yet. Even the EPO is showing signs of staying negative. Again too soon to make a call. Pretty much anything remains on the table from epic torch to epic snows and everything in between. One thing I'm sure of there will be plenty of storm opportunities to track. Anyone making calls for winter now is just speculation. Things should become much clearer in a couple of months. Stay tuned.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:16 am

I'll tell you what - the Pacific is one giant bathtub right now. Not only is El Nino strengthening, but the persistent "blob" in the north Pacific is still there. That has been the driver in our -EPO the last two winters. A -EPO/+ENSO/+PDO would be quite the trio to work with in the winter.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Post-40-0-81502200-1439734188

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:19 am

@Dtone wrote:Fear of a (non) winter like 1997-98 is spreading. Besides a strong El Nino I have no idea what the set up was otherwise that year. I wonder if anyone knows.

Hello Dtone - in that winter, low heights encompassed Alaska and the northern Pacific. Our EPO was super positive. When the Polar Vortex is dislocated to that side of the country, it takes all the cold air with it and we're left with ridging over the eastern US.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Nj6L3xk5TG

If we're able to maintain the -EPO this winter, like my previous post suggests, it could be a wild ride.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 16, 2015 10:23 am

Brutally low heights over the EPO region in the super strong Nino year of 97-98. I don't see it getting to this.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 If6W9an1sP

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Post by docstox12 Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:09 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll tell you what - the Pacific is one giant bathtub right now. Not only is El Nino strengthening, but the persistent "blob" in the north Pacific is still there. That has been the driver in our -EPO the last two winters. A -EPO/+ENSO/+PDO would be quite the trio to work with in the winter.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Post-40-0-81502200-1439734188

This is very interesting and I have learned here that just because a Super Nino may occur, other teles can still produce a good winter.
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 16, 2015 12:45 pm

@docstox12 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:I'll tell you what - the Pacific is one giant bathtub right now. Not only is El Nino strengthening, but the persistent "blob" in the north Pacific is still there. That has been the driver in our -EPO the last two winters. A -EPO/+ENSO/+PDO would be quite the trio to work with in the winter.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Post-40-0-81502200-1439734188

This is very interesting and I have learned here that just because a Super Nino may occur, other teles can still produce a good winter.

This is good news and very interesting too. If we can keep that blob of warm waters as we have since 2012 in the EPO region and finally at some help from the North Atlantic Region then I think we will have ourselves the Chicago Bulls of the 90's - back to back to back winters. One hell of a stretch. All of the bandwagoners are jumping to a 97-98 winter incoming but as Frank so intelligently pointed out the heights looks the temps over the North East this past winter. Taken from the USAwx site - check out the pool of water or urine for that matter in the EPO region
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Post-692-0-51833700-1439418468

As the great Rodney Dangerfield said in the movie Back to School- i Need some more bubbles, hey bubbles come over here (and a hot blond in a tiny clad bikini walks over!). I personally hope that we stay with this warm pool of water and the +PDO that is strengthening as well. Still A LOT of time but for the Winter Snow Weenies on this board (myself of course included) we pray that EPO region stays warm by a nice - 1.5 SD plus! Why you may ask - cause it will drive the cold air locked up in the Alaskan and NW territory region and drive towards the NE and Mid Atlantic as we have seen in the past two winters. It drives that northern jet stream further south bring the cold air and IF we can get the AO and NAO to go negative as well we can be in for one hell of a wild winter! Just the WSW in me there peeps.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:55 am

The latest SST Anomaly 7-day change graph shows warming in the PDO and central regions of the ENSO, with cooling in the NPAC and east-based ENSO region.


Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

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Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:49 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The latest SST Anomaly 7-day change graph shows warming in the PDO and central regions of the ENSO, with cooling in the NPAC and east-based ENSO region.


Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

Frank what does that mean I believe it's not what we want going forward correct.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Aug 17, 2015 12:57 pm

@skinsfan1177 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:The latest SST Anomaly 7-day change graph shows warming in the PDO and central regions of the ENSO, with cooling in the NPAC and east-based ENSO region.


Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 5 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

Frank what does that mean I believe it's not what we want going forward correct.

It's good and bad news. Good because we want to see warming in the central ENSO regions. Bad because cooling in the NPAC may indicate we're losing out -EPO signal, but there is still a long way to go to make that determination.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:12 pm

This particular model is looking at projected SST's in the Nov-Dec-Jan time frame. Two key regions to look at:

1. The ENSO region (the Equatorial Pacific). Notice the darkest shade of red extends into the central Pacific, it's not confined to the coast of Central America. This means the El Nino event is basin-wde.

2. The EPO region, in the Northern Pacific, still shows above normal temps that extend from the PDO region. This will help keep ridging into Alaska and western Canada, which in turn keeps our AO negative. Very important!!!!!

I hope this is right.

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Post by docstox12 Mon Aug 17, 2015 1:31 pm

#2 is the key for our snow if that Equatorial red comes across.Only 2 1/2 months until Nov 1!
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