Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

I just looked at CPC's teleconnections from both past and present and saw some interesting comparisons between November 2nd, 2015 and November 2nd, 2009:

11/2/09:

AO: +2.689
NAO: +1.288
PNA: -0.092

11/2/15:

AO: +3.3660
NAO: +1.4498
PNA: -0.57377

Just some food for thought.

Mike look at 2003 as well for a comparison too.

[Math23x7]

2003 as in November 2003 or 2002-03 winter?

[amugs]

2003 as in November 2003 or 2002-03 winter?

2002-03 - sorry about that.

[amugs]

Could we be seeing the reversal of the MJO force on our weather pattern and the trop forcing set up around the date line? These maps change A LOT especially in this anomalous set up we have to a degree but interesting. The affects may not hit there until later in the month but I hope that this trends continue and get the MJO wave to retrograde back from phase 3 to 2 or even into 1 heading into Dec or thereafter. IF the forcing starts to set up ot by the D/L as is progged then it will pull that LP or vortext in teh GOA more west and allow a -EPO and +PNA to set up - ain't happening over night and it maybe wishful weenie thinking on my part BUT there may be some validity to this. Thoughts??



Look at the change in our sst's over the last 30 days - 3.4 and 4 warming up whilst 1.2 cool and + PDO in full force as well and water in Gulf Of Alaska spiked too.

[algae888]

yes mugs with the mjo losing influence by probably heading into the COD or a weak phase 1 or 2 tropical forcing could set up back near the DL. add in the AO NAO and PNA all heading towards favorable positions by end of month I am thinking now that dec. could start off with a bang. I still think as frank and others have said that dec could end up above normal with back and forth warmth and cold but I think we could see a nice (snow) storm or two at some point in dec. I know these indicators are highly volatile changing day to day but with the sst in the north pac and in the atlantic favorable no reason to believe these indicators will not shift in our favor in the next few weeks. add in that these indicators NAO and AO are going to be very high in the near term with very warm conditions for our area,nature has a way of balancing these out in the long term. looking for the fun to begin towards dec 1st albeit transient. lets start the wild ride.

[Frank_Wx]

850mb zonal wind anomalies showed very strong westerlies through the entire month of October between the Dateline and 120W. While there are still above normal departures expected in November between those longitudes, it's clear the anomly signal is not that strong. On top of the SOI weakening...this could also aid in weakening the El Nino.

[amugs]

@Al - this is what Cohen was seeing or showed in a chart from his site on the AO that after a good spike it would come back to earth for us. I'll take this around mid month over what was progged this weekend - a return to normal. 2009 ??

Here is Cohen's chart of the AO from yesterday. (repost here)

[Math23x7]

2003 as in November 2003 or 2002-03 winter?

2002-03 - sorry about that.

Well, since you asked last night, I will give you The November 2nd, 2002 teleconnections:

AO: -0.331
NAO: +0.125
PNA: -0.251

[amugs]

BAZZINGAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!

[algae888]

Euro showing big closed low over western pa transfering to coastal day 9 and 10

[amugs]

Euro showing big closed low over western pa transfering to coastal day 9 and 10

Holy Al i was just going top post and here is the CMC

[amugs]

Looks like as I posted above the MJO pulse weakens and forcing returns to the dateline - very good news IMO. This will provide good feedback in the EPO raising the heights and hopefully bringing that +EPO to a more neutral state - pull that GOA vortex more west and thus resulting in the PNA going more neutral to positive. When does this look to occur you ask? third week of Nov is the projection - we will see.

[rb924119]

Looks like as I posted above the MJO pulse weakens and forcing returns to the dateline - very good news IMO. This will provide good feedback in the EPO raising the heights and hopefully bringing that +EPO to a more neutral state - pull that GOA vortex more west and thus resulting in the PNA going more neutral to positive. When does this look to occur you ask? third week of Nov is the projection - we will see.

Well, well, well, well, well......Mugs, I hope that you don't mind, but I'm going to add my two cents your post, since you already beat me to the punch lol

Here's the latest (12z) run of the EURO Ensemble, with the map being 500 hPa anomalies:



Notice what the ensemble is trying to do: Ridging (warm colors) over all of eastern Asia, troughing (cooler colors) through the central-east Pacific, ridging centered just off the U.S. west coast and south of Alaska, troughing through the central U.S., and riding through the Northeast and eastern Canada. To me, the placement of these features is not important **at this time**. Here's why: For many of the recent runs, at least of what I can remember (take that with a five-pound tub of Morton's lmao I can't remember much) the long-range ensembles, at least of the EURO, have been muted with respect to the pattern; no real significant anomalies anywhere, except somewhat cooler toward the North Pole and warmer elsewhere. This time, though, we see signs of a nice, exciting, AMPLIFIED wave train with the features mentioned above, even if the contours denoting the actual 500-hPa heights still look relatively flat, the anomalies are quite telling. When amplified patterns, such as the one in today's run that I'm assuming to represent pattern amplification, appear in the long range, they almost always are placed too far west within the guidance (the reasons for this can be a multitude of things). However, as we draw nearer, they often times are gradually shown to shift eastward, such that by the time of verification, the pattern actually ends up being the inverse of what was initially projected at the given lead time. IF this type of pattern continues to show up in the ensemble guidance, then my hypothesis would be to start putting belief in Mugs' claim of a possible regime change, as the amplified pattern would likely shift east in future runs, such that we would have many factors favorably placed for a much cooler pattern to round out the month. Just my two cents. Not to get everybody worked up, but if my hypothesis is considered, one might be able to entertain the idea that this particular run is signaling for a -NAO/+PNA/neutral EPO/AO regime, which is very similar to Mugs' conclusion above. Now, there is no way of knowing how long this might last at this point; it could end up being transient, like we have seen so far, or sustained. We just have to wait and see. But it's something to think about, I think...

[amugs]

Looks like as I posted above the MJO pulse weakens and forcing returns to the dateline - very good news IMO. This will provide good feedback in the EPO raising the heights and hopefully bringing that +EPO to a more neutral state - pull that GOA vortex more west and thus resulting in the PNA going more neutral to positive. When does this look to occur you ask? third week of Nov is the projection - we will see.

Well, well, well, well, well......Mugs, I hope that you don't mind, but I'm going to add my two cents your post, since you already beat me to the punch lol

Here's the latest (12z) run of the EURO Ensemble, with the map being 500 hPa anomalies:



Notice what the ensemble is trying to do: Ridging (warm colors) over all of eastern Asia, troughing (cooler colors) through the central-east Pacific, ridging centered just off the U.S. west coast and south of Alaska, troughing through the central U.S., and riding through the Northeast and eastern Canada. To me, the placement of these features is not important **at this time**. Here's why: For many of the recent runs, at least of what I can remember (take that with a five-pound tub of Morton's lmao I can't remember much) the long-range ensembles, at least of the EURO, have been muted with respect to the pattern; no real significant anomalies anywhere, except somewhat cooler toward the North Pole and warmer elsewhere. This time, though, we see signs of a nice, exciting, AMPLIFIED wave train with the features mentioned above, even if the contours denoting the actual 500-hPa heights still look relatively flat, the anomalies are quite telling. When amplified patterns, such as the one in today's run that I'm assuming to represent pattern amplification, appear in the long range, they almost always are placed too far west within the guidance (the reasons for this can be a multitude of things). However, as we draw nearer, they often times are gradually shown to shift eastward, such that by the time of verification, the pattern actually ends up being the inverse of what was initially projected at the given lead time. IF this type of pattern continues to show up in the ensemble guidance, then my hypothesis would be to start putting belief in Mugs' claim of a possible regime change, as the amplified pattern would likely shift east in future runs, such that we would have many factors favorably placed for a much cooler pattern to round out the month. Just my two cents. Not to get everybody worked up, but if my hypothesis is considered, one might be able to entertain the idea that this particular run is signaling for a -NAO/+PNA/neutral EPO/AO regime, which is very similar to Mugs' conclusion above. Now, there is no way of knowing how long this might last at this point; it could end up being transient, like we have seen so far, or sustained. We just have to wait and see. But it's something to think about, I think...

Rb well well well you SHOWED me up with the R&D post hahahaha!! I thank you for the more in depth and insightful post and I am getting excited about this turn around. Heck met winter starts in a month so it is something to very much look forward to. The whole idea here is MJO wave weakening/dissipating ALLOWING for the trop force out at the D/L to start to pump its fist and my belief is when this occurs then I truly feel that we pull that darn +EPO down and the spike the PNA just by the feedback of the strong convection/forcing by this Nino. It is called feedback in the atmosphere. I concur my man Rb and it something to look forward to.

One thing that I have read is that out stratosphere is not showing any signs of warming to help with the AO or polar vortex split due to the high geomagnetic pulses we are getting hit with this past fall, very high solar activity even though we are heading into the solar minimum. I would expect this to hopefully slow down/lessen as we move towards winter and by early Dec to maybe mid Dec.

[sroc4]

Ensembles are def hinting at something IMHO.  Look at the 9-10day and beyond.  Day nine the bulk of the focus of the ridging is to the north into Canada.  This would most likely promote a stronder HP N of us leading to a more easterly or Neasterly flow and more seasonable temps.  
" />

Vs the SW flow via the death SE ridge we are currently experiencing

" />

Beyond this the Ridging looks like it is trying to build in even stronger to the N and E and ridging may be trying to nose its way back into the west coast as well.  The ens have trended this way as of late.  Weather it cont that way and or is transient in nature is yet to be determined.  Transient or not...As others have pointed out....A hint at how the Winter will eventually evolve??  Hmm
" />

[HectorO]

Frank, couldn't this be considered an Indian summer? The almanac and other sources of information always label an indian summer as a period of warmth anywhere from 2-4 weeks following a frost which has happened in NJ at least.

[amugs]

Ensembles are def hinting at something IMHO.   Look at the 9-10day and beyond.  Day nine the bulk of the focus of the ridging is to the north into Canada.  This would most likely promote a stronder HP N of us leading to a more easterly or Neasterly flow and more seasonable temps.  
" />

Vs the SW flow via the death SE ridge we are currently experiencing

" />

Beyond this the Ridging looks like it is trying to build in even stronger to the N and E and ridging may be trying to nose its way back into the west coast as well.  The ens have trended this way as of late.  Weather it cont that way and or is transient in nature is yet to be determined.  Transient or not...As others have pointed out....A hint at how the Winter will eventually evolve??  Hmm
" />

Good stuff Scott, where is this all starting from - the forcing out at he dateline with the MJO wave weakening. Do not know like you said how long it will last or even if it will come to fruition but fact being we MAY see something by the later part of the month in terms of changes from this CURRENT blow torch pattern. Amazing how frickin hard it is to get winter but how easy it is to get summer and warmth - that's what makes winter so exciting.

This is holding steady - Good news!! 5oo map showing the trop forcing out at the dateline and our Gulf Vortex in a good position - would like it more west but beggers cant be choosers at this stage.



2M temps are good as well



Precip good too

[rb924119]

Mugs, it would seem that you have an insider giving you the intel before I can get it lmfao Yet again, to supplement:

Take a look at today's 12 GFS Ensemble for the same time period as the EURO Ensemble from last night (hour 348/360, respectively)



Remarkably similar right now with regards to amplification, but opposite that of the EURO. Will be interesting to see how this evolves in time.

[amugs]

MEI - took a dip on Nino



From MEI update:

"With the MEI indicating continuing strong El Niño conditions, one can find a long list of key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). Every one of them flags El Niño rather than La Niña conditions.

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate very high sea level pressure anomalies (P) northwest of Australia, westerly wind anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline, very strong southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, very high sea surface (S) and air temperatures (A) anomalies over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and enhanced cloudiness © over the southern tropical Pacific near the dateline. While all six fields show anomalies in excess of one standard deviations, the number of two sigma anomaly fields has dropped from six last month to four this month (both zonal winds and cloudiness are now less extreme). Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) continue very strong over the eastern equatorial Pacific for sea level pressure (P). Easterly wind anomalies (U) are prominent off the coast of Central America and over the South China Sea. Increased northerly anomalies have become very strong (V) southeast of Hawai'i. Anomalously cold air temperatures (A) east of Australia round out this picture."


Can you say BASIN WIDE??

[Frank_Wx]

Frank, couldn't this be considered an Indian summer? The almanac and other sources of information always label an indian summer as a period of warmth anywhere from 2-4 weeks following a frost which has happened in NJ at least.

For some areas technically this is an Indian summer. Temps in the 70s for consecutive days is pretty impressive for November. We'll struggle to hit 70s next week. We'll be in the 60's more.

Mugs, it would seem that you have an insider giving you the intel before I can get it lmfao Yet again, to supplement:

Take a look at today's 12 GFS Ensemble for the same time period as the EURO Ensemble from last night (hour 348/360, respectively)



Remarkably similar right now with regards to amplification, but opposite that of the EURO. Will be interesting to see how this evolves in time.

I'm not saying that pattern as depicted looks awful - but it doesn't excite me either. Looks pretty transient. Until we get an upper air feature, such as a massive GOA Vortex or high latitude NAO block, we'll continue being transient.

[Frank_Wx]

MEI - took a dip on Nino



From MEI update:

"With the MEI indicating continuing strong El Niño conditions, one can find a long list of key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). Every one of them flags El Niño rather than La Niña conditions.

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate very high sea level pressure anomalies (P) northwest of Australia, westerly wind anomalies (U) along the Equator and centered on the dateline, very strong southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, very high sea surface (S) and air temperatures (A) anomalies over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and enhanced cloudiness © over the southern tropical Pacific near the dateline. While all six fields show anomalies in excess of one standard deviations, the number of two sigma anomaly fields has dropped from six last month to four this month (both zonal winds and cloudiness are now less extreme). Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) continue very strong over the eastern equatorial Pacific for sea level pressure (P). Easterly wind anomalies (U) are prominent off the coast of Central America and over the South China Sea. Increased northerly anomalies have become very strong (V) southeast of Hawai'i. Anomalously cold air temperatures (A) east of Australia round out this picture."


Can you say BASIN WIDE??

Good to see the MEI took a dip. There's been some decent warming with ONI values the last few days. Hopefully November continues the process of a weakening El Nino rather than the alternative.

[rb924119]

[quote="Frank_Wx"]

Frank, couldn't this be considered an Indian summer? The almanac and other sources of information always label an indian summer as a period of warmth anywhere from 2-4 weeks following a frost which has happened in NJ at least.

For some areas technically this is an Indian summer. Temps in the 70s for consecutive days is pretty impressive for November. We'll struggle to hit 70s next week. We'll be in the 60's more.

Mugs, it would seem that you have an insider giving you the intel before I can get it lmfao Yet again, to supplement:

I'm not saying that pattern as depicted looks awful - but it doesn't excite me either. Looks pretty transient. Until we get an upper air feature, such as a massive GOA Vortex or high latitude NAO block, we'll continue being transient.

No I agree completely, Frank. I'm just saying that at 300+ hours, you won't see that, ESPECIALLY in the ensembles (as they basically average to climatology lol) but as you well know, there might be signs showing up that may tip their hats as to how the pattern might try to evolve. For example, the extreme troughing that we had in October those few days was well advertised within the 200-hour mark, but very muted before that. That's all.

[sroc4]

Frank, couldn't this be considered an Indian summer? The almanac and other sources of information always label an indian summer as a period of warmth anywhere from 2-4 weeks following a frost which has happened in NJ at least.

For some areas technically this is an Indian summer. Temps in the 70s for consecutive days is pretty impressive for November. We'll struggle to hit 70s next week. We'll be in the 60's more.

Mugs, it would seem that you have an insider giving you the intel before I can get it lmfao Yet again, to supplement:

I'm not saying that pattern as depicted looks awful - but it doesn't excite me either. Looks pretty transient. Until we get an upper air feature, such as a massive GOA Vortex or high latitude NAO block, we'll continue being transient.

No I agree completely, Frank. I'm just saying that at 300+ hours, you won't see that,  ESPECIALLY in the ensembles (as they basically average to climatology lol) but as you well know, there might be signs showing up that may tip their hats as to how the pattern might try to evolve. For example, the extreme troughing that we had in October those few days was well advertised within the 200-hour mark, but very muted before that. That's all.

Totally agree RB. Im not exactly excited quite yet either, but the spidey senses are tingling.

[amugs]

Look at how 1.2 has dropped off, talk about cooling down

[Frank_Wx]

Opposite trends lately. PDO cooling and ENSO region 1+2 warming . Likely a result of the persistent EPO troughiness in northeast Pac.

[NjWeatherGuy]

OT but the time is now 2 hours off and now quite frusturating to read especially at night, anyway to get this fixed? I thought during DST last year it got fixed not more off. Maybe im mistaking but oddly its bothering me now more than it did if it was the same.

[Math23x7]

OT but the time is now 2 hours off and now quite frusturating to read especially at night, anyway to get this fixed? I thought during DST last year it got fixed not more off. Maybe im mistaking but oddly its bothering me now more than it did if it was the same.

Try going to Profile - Preferences - Time Zone.

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