Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

[amugs]

El Nino's are back loaded but this is going as progged - AN Nov and Dec and then Shazam we change for the better. Not overnight but like last winter by mid Jan we are cooking.

[amugs]

Check this out - found this on another site:

Looks more like 2009 No??? YEAH BABY!! look at where the convection is setting up here - OH BABY!!

[Snow88]

http://www.newser.com/story/215737/record-siberia-snowfall-could-be-bad-news-for-us.html

Looks like LC and other mets agree with this article

[jmanley32]

http://www.newser.com/story/215737/record-siberia-snowfall-could-be-bad-news-for-us.html

Looks like LC and other mets agree with this article

That's talking about the cold, but what about snowfall? I am hoping it is not warm through Dec, that just ruins xmas, but I also do not want the bitter cold we had a few times before xmas last yr. In the 30s is great.

[Snow88]

^^^^ Signs are pointing to a warm December. I just would like a winter where it is actually winter from December - March.

[nutleyblizzard]

^^^^ Signs are pointing to a warm December. I just would like a winter where it is actually winter from December - March.

We might still cash in for December but times with warm intervals and transient cold shots, it will need to be a thread the needle event in all likelihood. Don't despair, after the new year is when the action starts.

[amugs]

http://www.newser.com/story/215737/record-siberia-snowfall-could-be-bad-news-for-us.html

Looks like LC and other mets agree with this article

No need to fret,when the PV weakens come Dec we will be in business going forward for Jan, Feb and Mrach as Frank pointed out. People are going to freak that Dec is going to AN (above normal( but with some transient cold shots we can get a good thump of snow.

Also, just read from source that the the warming has been intense at 155 w and out past the date line. Reversal of the trade winds  is hapen in and the latest maps showing the Beg trough moving a bit WSW direction, again IF this is true then it is even better for us on the coast.

I say after the new year we go BOOM!!!

[algae888]

the euro 10 day ensemble mean along with the GFS have broken down the vortex over Alaska and now shift+ Heights into the EPO region. I m on my phone and can't post maps. does this look transient or something that has some staying power?

[algae888]

The pattern going forward looks to become very amplified with an enormous ridge along the East Coast almost from Greenland all the way into the Caribbean. It could get very warm again for several days late next week. Out west they look like they're going to have a bonanza with tons of snow all the way from Texas up into Canada and west to the Rocky Mountains.

[amugs]

COME TO POPPA NOW -= BAZINGA!!!!!!!!!!!

[Frank_Wx]

Isn't that the UKMET seasonal?

[sroc4]

Isn't that the UKMET seasonal?

Yes.

[amugs]

Isn't that the UKMET seasonal?

Yes.

OH poop - you posted this one in the previous page =- sorry double post but brilliant minds think alike - mine is a few years older on this one - hahaha!!

Look at the last two years NE PAC - three years in the making?!!

[amugs]

Check out this site on nino's - graphics are amazing!!

http://sabolscience.blogspot.com/2015/08/a-deeper-look-at-top-10-el-ninos-since.html

[Frank_Wx]

Isn't that the UKMET seasonal?

Yes.

OH poop - you posted this one in the previous page =- sorry double post but brilliant minds think alike - mine is a few years older on this one - hahaha!!

Look at the last two years NE PAC - three years in the making?!!

Haha

I'm not thinking we get as cold this winter. The Nino is simply too strong to allow such cold to exist over our area. At least for an extended period of time.

[amugs]

JAMSTEC out and it looks good:
Temps normal to slightly below



Ohio Valley goes dry on this latest run - interesting

Octobers run
Precip -more above normal

" />

Temps

[Snow88]

CFS is a furnace for our area throughout the winter

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[skinsfan1177]

CFS is a furnace for our area throughout the winter

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Not good news!

[amugs]

CFS is a furnace for our area throughout the winter

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

Take it with a grain of salt ut I'm has been terrible with LR forecasts. The past two years it did not hit the months projection until 2 weeks into the month. Bad bad tol. Jamstec, ukmet and euro are the ones ton look at. Sorry but I am throwing this out. By the way, look at the 500 mb maps and that wil tell you what is what, cfs doesn't do. With trop forcing setting up around the dateline it will cause the epo to go negative and a + pna in the west and trough in the se. Won't happen until Jan so don't fret ir oanic. Keep the faith. Not an east based Nino here but a western madden basin wide imho. Next few weeks we see this as nino starts to collapse from east to west.

[Frank_Wx]

JAMSTEC out and it looks good:
Temps normal to slightly below



Ohio Valley goes dry on this latest run - interesting

Octobers run
Precip -more above normal

" />

Temps

This has been a persistent model and is better than the CFS. What's encouraging is the greatest forcing is over the Dateline, indicative of where the steepest precip anomalies are. As long as that's the case, the NPAC trough should stay tugged toward the Aleutians. I just hope we see more Nino warming at the Dateline instead of 120W. Get it as central based as possible.

[amugs]

Frank,

More I see the Jamstec it has held its ground for our area. Yes the precip over the dateline is Great news, there us a massive warming over 155w and west happening from a poster on a new England board with things looking to turn even cooler from east to west region 1.2 into periphery of 3. To me that is a good sign with the trade winds reversing as we move into late Nov and Dec.

[Frank_Wx]

What's interesting is the warmer temp anomalies over the western US compared to the October run, but Alaska actually is cooler. A +EPO/+PNA during El Nino events is pretty common. However, anytime the PNA ridge relaxes warm Pac air is quickly streamed into the U.S. so it's optimal to have both on our side. We really need to make sure the +PDO helps us here and that El Nino concentrates the warmest anomalies in Nino region 3.4. Or else, we'll be seeing MANY thread the needle events.

[Frank_Wx]

I'm guessing the reason why the MJO insists to stay in unfavorable phases - 2 and 3 - for the forseeable future is because of the very warm SSTAs over the Indian Ocean leading to frequent convective development.

[Frank_Wx]

What's amazing to me is how active the MJO has been during this strong El Nino event. Historically, this should not be the case. The IO is running well above normal and it's likely not a coincidence the MJO pulses have been over phases 2 and 3.

[Snow88]

Starting to look better by Turkey Day

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Frank_Wx]

Starting to look better by Turkey Day

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

I do not trust those charts. But it does look like there may be slightly more ridging in the northeast Pacific.

[amugs]

Winter Outlook - very and I mean very thorough write up - for SNE but noneltheless makes great points that has been the theme by many so far this winter - two halves - second half we surge and kick some arse!!

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/

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