Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

Did you all see what happens after landfall, it spawns another coastal to do insult to injury and hits right on the area. Way long range but still. this is all nuts to track. And fun! Until the you know what hits the fan!

This is crazy

rb924119 wrote:Jman, all the reds in eastern Canada are the main reason, but the secondary cause is the short-wave over the the Pacific Northwest. Because that is amplifying at the same time the reds in Canada are "growing", it creates a mini-ridge in the south-central US, which acts as a kicker to the trough in the Southeast. The problem is that that eastern trough has nowhere to go because it is blocked by the reds (ridging) over all of Canada. So if you pretend that you're in a plane flying parallel to the black lines, and you reach the Southeast, which direction would you be going? Southeast to northwest. That's why it goes west; because the steering flow is directing it that way (among other dynamical reasons) lol Make sense?

Kind of lol, your jesus comment is that in response to the guidance map mugs posted? If this continues through the coming days very bad. I think Euro was too far south and GFS/cmc too far east. How insane would it be if a storm made landfall in the same area.

rb924119 wrote:Jesus....

i know that what I said when I almost fell of my chair looking at the H5 maps - this as you posted above is eerily similar - STRONG HP block, a slug of moisture with Trop System, warm sst in teh Atlantic and a system over the Rockies that holds back and helps tug on this atmospheric wise = trouble. We'll see again over the next few runs what is what - is the model suite overdoing the blocking - if so then it is not as bad - if it is as strong or even stronger then we burn the midnight oil tracking.
More guidance - HOLY S#$%

rb924119 wrote:Sroc, essentially, yes lol

Huh??

snow247 wrote:This is crazy

Its like weather bonanaza! All over the place, exciting yet scary at the same time. Exciting because how often do we see setups like this (imagine if was winter, we would have buffalo snow) scary because Sandy part 2 would just be unspeakable. Hate the next name though. And it will be handled totally differently with the NHC changes, hurricane watches warnings etc will still be hoisted even if hybrid. Again this is all speculation but seeing what rb tried to explain and his concern is telling me this is a real threat. I know I repeat myself but its just so crazy.,

I'm just waiting for Frank to give his insight on this potential system.

amugs wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Jesus....

i know that what I said when I almost fell of my chair looking at the H5 maps - this as you posted above is eerily similar - STRONG HP block, a slug of moisture with Trop System, warm sst in teh Atlantic and a system over the Rockies that holds back and helps tug on this atmospheric wise  = trouble. We'll see again over the next few runs what is what  - is the model suite overdoing the blocking - if so then it is not as bad - if it is as strong or even stronger then we burn the midnight oil tracking.
More guidance - HOLY S#$%

The 18z is eaven more of a western retrograde, I feel a lot of sleepless nights coming up, yes I want our administrators word.

This administrator says every one breath. Give it a day or two.

TD 11 looking impressive, I wouldn't be surprised if named by tomorrow or earlier.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

sroc4 wrote:This administrator says every one breath.  Give it a day or two.  

My apologies sroc forgot u were one too, your just as important lol

sroc4 wrote:This administrator says every one breath.  Give it a day or two.  

LMAO

My thoughts right now regarding where the uncertainties lie:

1. How much diabatic heating can enter the atmosphere from the dying tropical cyclone poised to make landfall on the east-Asian continent? This is what will be responsible for amplifying the entire wave train across the Pacific and eventually over our heads. If it remains stronger longer, it will allow greater amplification downstream, with of course the opposite also holding true.

2. How much diabatic heating can be given to the atmosphere in the Atlantic by the developing tropical depression to feed into the growing ridge? If you believe the GFS solution, where this system stays relatively weak, then we are in "good" shape. Yes, the pattern will be highly amplified and it will likely be a coastal hugger, but it shouldn't hook to the west. However, if the storm can strengthen more, as the EURO shows, then we have a problem, as it will allow the Atlantic ridge to grow to the point that it folds westward under and into the the top of the ridge in the central US. This essentially squeezes all of the vorticity into the base of the trough and allows it to ball up in the Southeast, versus the GFS which still keeps the Atlantic ridge as the dominant one, but weak enough to the point that it doesn't fold westward.

My thoughts on the two solutions: I honestly don't know what to expect as an outcome here. Jman had asked me directly before, and I admittedly just realized that I never truly answered his question. A few posts back I did a comparison between the actual case of Sandy and the EURO forecast for the same time period (before landfall), and although the pattern is very (eerily) similar to the original, there are some differences; most notably in the West (US). The forecasted ridging is displaced westward in comparison the original, which normally favors a western track. However, the importance of the developing shortwave over the Pacific Northwest must not be overlooked either, as it is this that ultimately works to position the base of the trough over the Southeast. A shallower shortwave (really it's two smaller ones contained in slightly larger one) will result in less amplification of the mini-ridge in the south-central US, which would prevent the southern part of the larger trough from balling up (GFS). A stronger solution will do the opposite (EURO). Timing is also key, but that seems to be in fair agreement at this point; both dive southeastward as the ridge in the east begins to fold over (or in the case of the GFS, almost but not quite) while the same happens in the Atlantic.

In past experience, and going with my gut, I don't think the GFS is handling the eastern troughs correctly. Although it doesn't fold the ridges over, which is definitely plausible, it keeps the northern trough as the primary. That's all well and good. BUT, it doesn't make sense to me how that remains entirely separate from the trough (although it is still embedded). What I mean is this: I've never seen a strong closed H5 low embedded in such a sharp trough, but yet be so far removed from the best curvature. It doesn't make sense, as not only is it removed from the best curvature to continue to intensify as the GFS does, but according to Synoptic Atmospheric mathematics, I'm almost sure that it can't strengthen where the GFS has it with respect to the main trough. It should dive down into the base as it strengthens. That's where the vorticity gradient directs it. It can't just sit there lol

I'm not saying that I favor any one solution, as it's been stated multiple times that it's too soon, which it absolutely is. But, as it stands now, I'm thinking we see a coastal hugger, inside of the GFS, but not as extreme as the EURO. This may change, one way or the other, but on my analysis of the overall synoptic pattern, and the comparison between past and present, that's what I'm going with now. My next step is to analyze the developing tropical in the Atlantic, and see how I think the models are doing with it.

Great analysis rb and thanks for taking the time to explain it so thoroughly.

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:This administrator says every one breath.  Give it a day or two.  

LMAO

My thoughts right now regarding where the uncertainties lie:

1. How much diabatic heating can enter the atmosphere from the dying tropical cyclone poised to make landfall on the east-Asian continent? This is what will be responsible for amplifying the entire wave train across the Pacific and eventually over our heads. If it remains stronger longer, it will allow greater amplification downstream, with of course the opposite also holding true.

2. How much diabatic heating can be given to the atmosphere in the Atlantic by the developing tropical depression to feed into the growing ridge? If you believe the GFS solution, where this system stays relatively weak, then we are in "good" shape. Yes, the pattern will be highly amplified and it will likely be a coastal hugger, but it shouldn't hook to the west. However, if the storm can strengthen more, as the EURO shows, then we have a problem, as it will allow the Atlantic ridge to grow to the point that it folds westward under and into the the top of the ridge in the central US. This essentially squeezes all of the vorticity into the base of the trough and allows it to ball up in the Southeast, versus the GFS which still keeps the Atlantic ridge as the dominant one, but weak enough to the point that it doesn't fold westward.

My thoughts on the two solutions: I honestly don't know what to expect as an outcome here. Jman had asked me directly before, and I admittedly just realized that I never truly answered his question. A few posts back I did a comparison between the actual case of Sandy and the EURO forecast for the same time period (before landfall), and although the pattern is very (eerily) similar to the original, there are some differences; most notably in the West (US). The forecasted ridging is displaced westward in comparison the original, which normally favors a western track. However, the importance of the developing shortwave over the Pacific Northwest must not be overlooked either, as it is this that ultimately works to position the base of the trough over the Southeast. A shallower shortwave (really it's two smaller ones contained in slightly larger one) will result in less amplification of the mini-ridge in the south-central US, which would prevent the southern part of the larger trough from balling up (GFS). A stronger solution will do the opposite (EURO). Timing is also key, but that seems to be in fair agreement at this point; both dive southeastward as the ridge in the east begins to fold over (or in the case of the GFS, almost but not quite) while the same happens in the Atlantic.

In past experience, and going with my gut, I don't think the GFS is handling the eastern troughs correctly. Although it doesn't fold the ridges over, which is definitely plausible, it keeps the northern trough as the primary. That's all well and good. BUT, it doesn't make sense to me how that remains entirely separate from the trough (although it is still embedded). What I mean is this: I've never seen a strong closed H5 low embedded in such a sharp trough, but yet be so far removed from the best curvature. It doesn't make sense, as not only is it removed from the best curvature to continue to intensify as the GFS does, but according to Synoptic Atmospheric mathematics, I'm almost sure that it can't strengthen where the GFS has it with respect to the main trough. It should dive down into the base as it strengthens. That's where the vorticity gradient directs it. It can't just sit there lol

I'm not saying that I favor any one solution, as it's been stated multiple times that it's too soon, which it absolutely is. But, as it stands now, I'm thinking we see a coastal hugger, inside of the GFS, but not as extreme as the EURO. This may change, one way or the other, but on my analysis of the overall synoptic pattern, and the comparison between past and present, that's what I'm going with now. My next step is to analyze the developing tropical in the Atlantic, and see how I think the models are doing with it.

Good deal rb, HH are out there and are doing 12 hr runs into TD 11 so they def taking it seriously that's a lot of moolah. Once their info is input and it gets named the tracks usually get better consolidated as does the intensity.

Holy nuts!!

Thanks guys.

So, I was looking at some data regarding the Atlantic system, and it looks like the GFS may have the upper hand on its intensity. Although the low-level circulation looks nice, that's about all it is at the moment, and I don't see that changing much as it continues northwestward. The problem is the upper-level low over the Gulf, and the outflow associated with that area of disturbed weather. The outflow channel it is creating is increasing the shear further south and to the east. As TD-11 continues, it will also continue to be on the fringe of the westerly shear, which is why it is so lopsided at the moment. Even though the water temperatures are suitable for development, the westerly winds will continue to separate the convection through the column from the surface circulation, which is good, since we don't want a repeat performance. I don't really see this changing too much over the next few days.

There is one wildcard, though, which is how H5 in the mid-latitudes plays out. If that progresses like the EURO, then we would have to worry about it strengthening as it transitions from tropical to extra-tropical, much like Sandy did, as it was drawn closer to the increasing forcings. Right now, I'm leaning with a 65-35 blend of the GFS/EURO, seeing as though the tropical aspect should remain on the weaker side, which will prevent the Atlantic ridge from completely folding over. This of course, can still change. Just some food for thought, here are the 12z EURO 500 hPA spaghettis:



I promise you that I didn't peek at them before I wrote this lol

There is some interaction, but not enough like the Op. There are still several, though, so this has to be watched lol

Hello all. Just got out of work and saw this thread. I will have to read through everyone's posts then offer my own input. Seems to be good stuff here.

The latest nhc cone now has us in it and they do not have it going post tropical south of li on sat which is also a bit faster. I agree a blend still a bad storm. And ya mugs some those are intense.

Frank will give any insight into this storm and thinking fri now? It looked more like sun.

rb924119 wrote:Mugs, you stole my thunder lol to supplement your recent post:

500 hPa height anomalies hours leading up to landfall of Sandy:



12z EURO forecast height anomalies for hours leading up to landfall of "X":



UN........REAL

Impressive images. Let's just remember this is not a hurricane coming up the coast. Right now it's just a tropical depression situated near the Bahamas. What is similar is the blocking, which you made clear.

sroc4 wrote:This administrator says every one breath.  Give it a day or two.  

Make that 2.

jmanley32 wrote:Frank will give any insight into this storm and thinking fri now? It looked more like sun.

Models all over the place. Timing of the trough will play a huge role in this. More to comr

Holy crap, 18z GFS has like 12"+ of rain for NYC and up the HV from now until Saturday...

The 18z GFS is coming in with a solution similar to the 12z EURO. Very amplified.

I encourage everyone to go to the "October pattern change" thread to read why we're seeing this sudden turn around in our weather. Scott had a fantastic write up and I linked my blog as well. Look for some of Ray's (rb) posts in the long range thread too.

18z GFS total precip map. Includes mid-week storm as well. Take about 1-2 inches off if you want an idea of how much rain falls just from the tropical system. Do not take this verbatim, but it does make a trend toward the EURO.

well 18z gfs 500mb...

11am thurs rather benign

5am Friday 2 closed lows ridge builds

2am sat, wow the upper lows merge and explode trough becomes very neg tilted and move west (ull) as ridge over atlantic also blows op. incredible

hey is that possible what 18z gfs is showing? hard to believe