Hybrid / Sub-Tropical Storm Possible Sunday-Monday (UNCERTAINTY)

well 18z gfs 500mb...

11am thurs rather benign

5am Friday 2 closed lows ridge builds

2am sat, wow the upper lows merge and explode trough becomes very neg tilted and move west (ull) as ridge over atlantic also blows op. incredible

hey is that possible what 18z gfs is showing? hard to believe

algae888 wrote:hey is that possible what 18z gfs is showing? hard to believe

The EURO is not far off. Negative 500 mb trough, extreme blocking, potent Nor'easter...

frank am i right that if this were to happen the area between (black line) 576 and 582 will get buckets of rain as the lift would be incredible

GFS retrogrades the sub-tropical / hybrid system over NJ. Those east-northeast of the center get pounded with high winds and torrential downpours.

Geez Frank that's right here where I'm at if I'm looking at that map right the coastal areas here will not be able to take a hit if this happens what are we looking at storm surge wise any ideas. My next question is when do we sound the alarms to people in the coastal areas

skinsfan1177 wrote:Geez Frank that's right here where I'm at if I'm looking at that map right the coastal areas here will not be able to take a hit if this happens what are we looking at storm surge wise any ideas. My next question is when do we sound the alarms to people in the coastal areas

Storm surge and beach erosion could be a huge problem if this retrograde occurs as depicted. I would not sound the alarms until Wednesday evening ort Thursday morning. We need to see more consistency. I always have a rule to take it one storm at a time. Let's worry about Wednesday's storm first then see what models do with the other one.

Holy crap on the 18z GFS rain so thats about 9 inches for my areaverbatim, I do not think we can handle that! Al I agree hard to believe never seen those colors on our map b4, with the wind being north of the center per this run QAl and I are just to the NE of center so high winds b issue. Glad ocrean not a issue I have deal with I hope for those along coast. Sound alarm one or two days b4, thats a bit late no?

Frank_Wx wrote:

skinsfan1177 wrote:Geez Frank that's right here where I'm at if I'm looking at that map right the coastal areas here will not be able to take a hit if this happens what are we looking at storm surge wise any ideas. My next question is when do we sound the alarms to people in the coastal areas

Storm surge and beach erosion could be a huge problem if this retrograde occurs as depicted. I would not sound the alarms until Wednesday evening ort Thursday morning. We need to see more consistency. I always have a rule to take it one storm at a time. Let's worry about Wednesday's storm first then see what models do with the other one.

I agree Frank my concern was giving people enough time to prepare of course if the storm surge is bad coastal areas may need to get out

jmanley32 wrote:Holy crap on the 18z GFS rain so thats about 9 inches for my areaverbatim, I do not think we can handle that!  Al I agree hard to believe never seen those colors on our map b4, with the wind being north of the center per this run QAl and I are just to the NE of center so high winds b issue.  Glad ocrean not a issue I have deal with I hope for those along coast.  Sound alarm one or two days b4, thats a bit late no?

Jman that's my concern people along coastal areas and where I work may need to evacuate. But I understand what Frank is saying their is a lot of uncertainty.

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS retrogrades the sub-tropical / hybrid system over NJ. Those east-northeast of the center get pounded with high winds and torrential downpours.

Frank I looked at the 10m gusts and they are not very high because of the tropical forcing with these possible torrential downpours would those winds mix down more often at the 850s? It is a bit closer to Euro but not intensity wise with wind and pressure, but I know its a lot more than that its just me understanding all the H5 maps etc. Still work on that. BTW Frank NHC shows this being fully tropical up to off jersey shore but you said its not a hurricane, yet correct me if I am wrong but if the winds warrent that strength and or the rain/surge wouldnt ts or hurricane warnings still b hoisted since the changes they made after Sandy?

TS wind speed probability map slowly increasing for area, this morning was 0 now 10-20% and shifted west a bit. Also to note the area is huge, just a bit smaller than sandy windfield. Not saying this is Sandy just saying the wind field area is expansive.

The more I  think about it 10 inches of rain in a weekend or worse part of one is unimaginable for here, none of the parkways or rivers regardless of the drought can handle that.  Thats subtracting the rain from tomorrow and as Frank pointed out the RGEM is showing 75 to 150mm which is 2.5-5 inches so let the deluge and misery driving start.

FYI The EUro ensembles have a lot of hits, some of them very strong. I didn't count but id say around at least 25% direct and then others nearby.

The old NAO chart. There always seems to be a storm signal when it goes from positive to negative. It's usually storms like these that either change the pattern or accompany a pattern change.

And then there's models like this that try to scare the crap out of us...

Another thing to consider is the SSTs off the east coast. Waters are warmer than they were with Sandy. Could lead to heavier downpours than Sandy had.

Maybe we will get a snowstorm a week after this storm, like what happened after Sandy lol

Frank the HWRF is going even crazier, whats the GFDL look like, do either merit concern? I think u said gfdl is a little okay. If HWRF happened as about NYC wiped out along with everyone else, I got almost no rain here with Sandy, this looks like much bigger issue with rain.

Since this is not your typical tropical system...I'm completely discounting the hurricane models.

Okay, so your going against the NHC and saying it wont be tropical cuz right now fri 2pm its still tropical.

Levi Cowens video, he says still down by FL on Fri....Is this old, I know the rain map is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lb4zl54_XKs

jmanley32 wrote:Okay, so your going against the NHC and saying it wont be tropical cuz right now fri 2pm its still tropical.

No no, let me be clearer.

This is a tropical entity. However, when it makes landfall over the U.S. it will be because it got captured by a negative / closed 500 mb trough. It's basically going to phase with the trough just like Sandy. The intensification the storm undergoes is not due to natural tropical variables such as warm water, low wind shear, etc...it's because of the phase with the trough so now it's no longer a pure tropical storm. It's a hybrid / sub-tropical system.

Because of the other players involved in the upper air to get this storm to materialize....I am discounting the hurricane models because they do not handle those other atmospheric features well.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay, so your going against the NHC and saying it wont be tropical cuz right now fri 2pm its still tropical.

No no, let me be clearer.

This is a tropical entity. However, when it makes landfall over the U.S. it will be because it got captured by a negative / closed 500 mb trough. It's basically going to phase with the trough just like Sandy. The intensification the storm undergoes is not due to natural tropical variables such as warm water, low wind shear, etc...it's because of the phase with the trough so now it's no longer a pure tropical storm. It's a hybrid / sub-tropical system.

Because of the other players involved in the upper air to get this storm to materialize....I am discounting the hurricane models because they do not handle those other atmospheric features well.

Well said Frank.

here we go with the media...

http://pix11.com/2015/09/28/depression-set-to-be-tropical-storm-joaquin-could-bring-soaking-rain-flooding-to-ny-nj-and-conn/

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Okay, so your going against the NHC and saying it wont be tropical cuz right now fri 2pm its still tropical.

No no, let me be clearer.

This is a tropical entity. However, when it makes landfall over the U.S. it will be because it got captured by a negative / closed 500 mb trough. It's basically going to phase with the trough just like Sandy. The intensification the storm undergoes is not due to natural tropical variables such as warm water, low wind shear, etc...it's because of the phase with the trough so now it's no longer a pure tropical storm. It's a hybrid / sub-tropical system.

Because of the other players involved in the upper air to get this storm to materialize....I am discounting the hurricane models because they do not handle those other atmospheric features well.

Understood that completely, thanks.  I wonder what if any wind impacts it will have, i imagine there will be at least some.  I wanna crack out my anemometer lol, does this have the potential to be strong enough to warrent more than TS issues or do you believe at this time it stays winds below 70mph, surge below I dont know that one etc?

Ok once it gets named its pronounced wah-keen, going ethnic names.