Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **amugs** Sun Dec 27, 2015 8:40 pm

NUTLEY,

Read what chief and I posted simultaneously *well almost,
from what Miguel had to day, we r ahead of track with the change and feeling is we start some high latitude block 2nd half of Jan.
The trop forcing is going to have major effects diwnstream, once tjis mjo wave goes favorable which is in the midst of doing, then we se this take over and we see the AK vortex deepen and retrograde sw of the aluetians and pump up th ejam on the west coast into BC, Canada and AO going neg with a trough in the SE. Heights will bridge over the pole and slide east to help give us a - NAO. Evolution of rhe 2015-2016 winter pattern in a crazy nono time period.

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:05 pm

HectorO wrote:Word has it, there's a pattern change coming in December of 2016... lol. Seriously, I dont care what the GFS the ABC, Def or xyz are predicting. At this point results matter. We'll see what happens.

I hear you Hector. Talk is cheap right? Speaking of talking scratch

similar to last year you seem to have a lot to say in December when it's warm and snowless. Will you continue to contribute to the board when/if the pattern goes cold and snowy in early to mid Jan this year, or will you go silent again like you did last year after it got cold and snowy? scratch

by **nutleyblizzard** Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:07 pm

Mugs, the NAO is the hardest anomaly to predict more than a week out. Often you will see the LR models pick up on blocking only to back off as you get closer. Hopefully it will come to fruition this time around as it would cause a very active pattern setup.

by **amugs** Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:14 pm

sroc4 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Word has it, there's a pattern change coming in December of 2016... lol. Seriously, I dont care what the GFS the ABC, Def or xyz are predicting. At this point results matter. We'll see what happens.

I hear you Hector. Talk is cheap right? Speaking of talking similar to last year you seem to have a lot to say in December when it's warm and snowless. Will you continue to contribute to the board when/if the pattern goes cold and snowy in early to mid Jan this year, or will you go silent again like you did last year after it got cold and snowy?

And this why the Banter Tread started .............

by **sroc4** Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:17 pm

by **amugs** Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:17 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Mugs, the NAO is the hardest anomaly to predict more than a week out. Often you will see the LR models pick up on blocking only to back off as you get closer. Hopefully it will come to fruition this time around as it would cause a very active pattern setup.

Read what I just posted from isotherm feels we go Neg on NAO

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:

The man that says to me at one of the get togethers and I quote " Its not another 384 hr storm is it, Don't show it to me." Are we really that desperate we are getting excited about 384 hrs? well.....yeah I guess we are lol. Hope you all had a great holiday, i was sweating like crazy xmas eve in my apartment it was so aggravating, I am ready to move on, this thing tomorrow night into Tuesday looks like not much but rain for me, so NEXT! Also how in the world can we say Boston had less snow last year than NYC? Didn't Boston have like 100+ inches by the end of the season and nyc like 50 something?

Jman:

What I wrote was NYC had more snow in March last year (18.6 inches), than Boston 8.6 inches.

Boston had an unprecedented 5 week pattern that then turned as all patterns eventually do and NYC made out better on the March storms than Boston.

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:31 am

This is a quote from a pro Met on another board from Saturday. I thought it appropriate.

"The only people bailing, or continuing to bang the warm drum, or talk about intricate problems with the pattern on the ensembles, are those who have a warm agenda or had wall to wall warmth in their forecast this winter.

For the rest of us, keep sailing. Horizon is coming into view now."

by **docstox12** Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:48 am

sroc4 wrote:This is a quote from a pro Met on another board from Saturday. I thought it appropriate.

"The only people bailing, or continuing to bang the warm drum, or talk about intricate problems with the pattern on the ensembles, are those who have a warm agenda or had wall to wall warmth in their forecast this winter.

For the rest of us, keep sailing. Horizon is coming into view now."

I love "they have a warm agenda.", LOL!!! lol!

by **HectorO** Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:52 am

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Word has it, there's a pattern change coming in December of 2016... lol. Seriously, I dont care what the GFS the ABC, Def or xyz are predicting. At this point results matter. We'll see what happens.

I hear you Hector. Talk is cheap right? Speaking of talking similar to last year you seem to have a lot to say in December when it's warm and snowless. Will you continue to contribute to the board when/if the pattern goes cold and snowy in early to mid Jan this year, or will you go silent again like you did last year after it got cold and snowy?

And this why the Banter Tread started .............

LOL, I just like seeing it to believe it. And of course I'll contribute. Last year was a coincidence. I had a job I absolutely hated and would work overnight hours. It's time in my life I'd like to forget lol

by **sroc4** Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:22 am

HectorO wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
HectorO wrote:Word has it, there's a pattern change coming in December of 2016... lol. Seriously, I dont care what the GFS the ABC, Def or xyz are predicting. At this point results matter. We'll see what happens.

I hear you Hector. Talk is cheap right? Speaking of talking similar to last year you seem to have a lot to say in December when it's warm and snowless. Will you continue to contribute to the board when/if the pattern goes cold and snowy in early to mid Jan this year, or will you go silent again like you did last year after it got cold and snowy?

And this why the Banter Tread started .............

LOL, I just like seeing it to believe it. And of course I'll contribute. Last year was a coincidence. I had a job I absolutely hated and would work overnight hours. It's time in my life I'd like to forget lol

ugggg overnights. I had a similar experience doing overnights back in 2007-2009. Ill never go back.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:49 am

HAPPY MONDAY!! SUNSHINE...SO HAPPY TODAY... Laughing

I JUST NEEDED ONE DAY OF SUNSHINE...

by **Dunnzoo** Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:58 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:HAPPY MONDAY!! SUNSHINE...SO HAPPY TODAY... I JUST NEEDED ONE DAY OF SUNSHINE...

Same here! Was getting so depressing being cloudy with no snow!

by **jmanley32** Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:47 am

A bit colder too, hoping no more 60+ degree days.

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:24 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:HAPPY MONDAY!! SUNSHINE...SO HAPPY TODAY... I JUST NEEDED ONE DAY OF SUNSHINE...

Same here! Was getting so depressing being cloudy with no snow!

yes Janet same thoughts here..if cloudy in winter should be snowing ;0 took a ride got some lunch and back home now its cloudy.....but we got sun for a few minutes.

by **RJB8525** Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:29 pm

i feel horrible for Texas...meanwhile up north to Wisconsin they are getting winter storm Goliath. Hard to watch images after the damage of a F-3+ comes ripping through a path of town

by Guest Mon Dec 28, 2015 9:04 pm

Had to make my 1000th post here in the banter thread. After all I'm one of the reasons the thread was created!!!

the entire western 2/3 of the nation all the way down to the Mexico border and the extreme Northeast is getting hit or has been hit by this storm. But not us. we got 15 minutes of sleet and some folks are wetting their pants. This sucks big time and this last month has been ridiculous. I hope this upcoming pattern change delivers. Until then I'm going to stay one miserable SOB!!!!!!

by **Quietace** Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:25 pm

syosnow94 wrote:Had to make my 1000th post here in the banter thread. After all I'm one of the reasons the thread was created!!!

the entire western 2/3 of the nation all the way down to the Mexico border and the extreme Northeast is getting hit or has been hit by this storm. But not us. we got 15 minutes of sleet and some folks are wetting their pants. This sucks big time and this last month has been ridiculous. I hope this upcoming pattern change delivers. Until then I'm going to stay one miserable SOB!!!!!!

It sounds like someone needs a hug

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:14 pm

Half an inch of snow and no posts in the banter thread for 24 hours. We are not a tough group to please.

by **Dunnzoo** Tue Dec 29, 2015 9:53 pm

I think we need a gtg to celebrate the pattern change on the 10th! party

by **aiannone** Tue Dec 29, 2015 10:02 pm

We should have another meet up before I go back to school on the 19th

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 30, 2015 10:07 am

Checking the 15 day, and I know as many have said the models don't pick up the pattern changes very well, but every single day temperatures are near normal, or 5 to 10° above normal for this time of year, I suppose after this December though I should be grateful.

The normal breakdowns in January are 34/16 in the Hudson Valley and 38/26 in New York City. I'm not seeing anything below that in the mid range.

Even normal, to slightly above would be nice after an absurd, disgusting, record warmth shattering, December.

by **Dtone** Wed Dec 30, 2015 12:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Checking the 15 day, and I know as many have said the models don't pick up the pattern changes very well, but every single day temperatures are near normal, or 5 to 10° above normal for this time of year, I suppose after this December though I should be grateful.

The normal breakdowns in January are 34/16 in the Hudson Valley and 38/26 in New York City. I'm not seeing anything below that in the mid range.

Even normal, to slightly above would be nice after an absurd, disgusting, record warmth shattering, December.

They have first below freezing temp around Jan 3-4. Just barely. The blooming trees etc are still surviving.

by **snow247** Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:37 pm

Euro has temps in the teens/low 20's Tuesday morning.

by **algae888** Wed Dec 30, 2015 1:59 pm

snow247 wrote:Euro has temps in the teens/low 20's Tuesday morning.

-16 850's for Monday temps may stay below freezing. Monday will be our first below normal day since November or maybe October if I'm mistaken

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:13 pm

algae888 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Euro has temps in the teens/low 20's Tuesday morning.
-16 850's for Monday temps may stay below freezing. Monday will be our first below normal day since November or maybe October if I'm mistaken

Teens and low 20's is normal for the date for most suburbs on Monday.

Are we saying teens and low 20's in City, because that would be quite a change.

by **algae888** Wed Dec 30, 2015 2:31 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:
snow247 wrote:Euro has temps in the teens/low 20's Tuesday morning.
-16 850's for Monday temps may stay below freezing. Monday will be our first below normal day since November or maybe October if I'm mistaken

Teens and low 20's is normal for the date for most suburbs on Monday.

Are we saying teens and low 20's in City, because that would be quite a change.

Cp when the new temperature grids come out in about an hour or so you're probably going to see a 35/24 split for New York City. If the models continue to trend colder maybe New York City will stay at or below 32 there is definitely a chance for that

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